Facts about "Reagan Democrats"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Since this incredibly stupid term is rearing its ugly head again, some things need to be pointed out:

1-"Reagan Democrats" by and large were not blue collar union workers. For proof go look at the 1984 results in Western Pennsylvania or the West Virginia coalfield.
2-Most "Reagan Democrats" ceased to even be Democrats after that. They were mostly the white blue dog southerners.
3-Reagan was last in an election 32 years ago. The youngest people who voted for Reagan are going to be 50 years old. And these would be people who voted for him in his first election, not consistent Democratic voters prior to that.

Basically the actual Reagan Democrats are all either in retirement homes or dead today. They're not commuting to their stereotypical blue collar job listening to John Mellancamp and Bruce Springsteen along the way and there's no group of people or demographic today that could be accurately defined as even sharing the traits of "Reagan Democrats" who are an important swing demographic. The term is meaningless as applied to any 21st century election. You might as well talk about "LBJ Republicans". So no, Trump is not going to win any states on the strength of "Reagan Democrats", the few that remain might vote for him but they've been voting Republican for decades now already.

[MK]

You are wrong .  I wasn't around in 1980 to vote for Ronald Reagan but clearly a Reagan democrat.  I also believe many of them throughout the 1990s voted for Bubba as did my family.   There is a younger generation of Reagan demos supporting trump.  I've saw plenty of us at a rally last year. 

Heres the scary thing for Hillary hacks. .. there is a group of voters like me who have supported candidates like Bill Clinton and even Obama in 08 we didn't care for the Bushes or someone like Mitt Romney.   Working class males, blue collier types, current or former military.  We tend to sit some elections out 2004, 2012 but this one we wont.   Might not be enough to put trump over the top be it will be interesting. 

[Santander]

You are wrong .  I wasn't around in 1980 to vote for Ronald Reagan but clearly a Reagan democrat.  I also believe many of them throughout the 1990s voted for Bubba as did my family.   There is a younger generation of Reagan demos supporting trump.  I've saw plenty of us at a rally last year. 

You're a Trump Democrat - culturally similar to the Reagan Democrats of a previous generation, but not the same. I do not think that the Reagan Democrat label is something that can be passed on to people who were not even alive in 1980, let alone old enough to vote.

[Nyvin]

It kinda seems like right wing posters on this forum use the term "Reagan Democrats" in a manner that suggest it's like a video game power up...

"You acquired Reagan Democrats!!  +15% white vote to your score!"

[RINO Tom]

I mean, I'm not a huge fan of the term but it obviously is not used to refer to registered Democrats who voted for Reagan, dude; it's drawing a parallel between voters who share(d) similar outlooks on politics.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There never was a such thing as a "Reagan Democrat."

If you were for Reagan, you were a Republican.

[Maxwell]

REgistered Democrats who voted for Reagan are now 100 years old and probably haven't voted for a Democrat since.

[Nyvin]

I mean, I'm not a huge fan of the term but it obviously is not used to refer to registered Democrats who voted for Reagan, dude; it's drawing a parallel between voters who share(d) similar outlooks on politics.

Even in that context it makes absolutely no sense....Reagan Democrats were Democratic white voters who felt the party was catering too much to minorities, the very poor, and women's issues.  

What group going from 2012 to 2016 could possibly feel that way today?   If they were going to suddenly drop off and vote Republican I believe they would've done it a long time ago or at least done it in 2012.    That kind of demographic shift just isn't happening.

[Wisconsin+17]

This is not a great argument against Carter voters in 1976, they would be born in 1958 - and would be that Boomer demographic of voters today between 1945 to 1960.

Last I checked, that's actually the largest demographic of voters in America.

[Maxwell]

Once again, the problem is that the Boomer generation is already super Republican. They have not  ever moved back to the Democratic column after Reagan, despite what many seem to keep getting at.

Democrats have won despite them moving away, not because of them ever moving back.

[136or142]

From what I've read part of what the first two posters wrote is both true.

In regards to the second poster, he is correct that Bill Clinton won some of these former Reagan Democrats back in 1992 or 1996.  However, many of the seemed to favor George W Bush over Al Gore in 2000, and contrary to what the second poster wrote, there is very little evidence that hardly any of these voters or, as the second poster wrote, these type of voters, voted for Barack Obama in 2008 or 2012.

Most of this 'working class' demographic had become fully Republican at the Presidential and Congressional level by 2000 over social issues.

The first poster is correct in that Politico recently took a look at these supposedly new voters that Trump brought into the primary process, and concluded that nearly all of them had regularly voted previously, just not in primaries.  They also concluded that nearly all of them were long time Republican voters, though I'm not sure how they figured that out.

[Suburbia]

Reagan Democrats are still around, they're just older. They have voted for Democrats in the past. They voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and they voted Democratic in local, state races, like Claire McCaskill in 2006, etc. You can't just say that they don't exist anymore. They do, but their electoral influence is waning.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/the-myth-of-the-reagan-democrat/475608/

[Likely Voter]

the problem is that things have changed in the last couple of generations. Yes Reagan got 27% of Democrats in 1980, but Ford got 20% of Dems in 1976. Back then there simply were a lot more Dems and a lot of them started voting Republican after the 60s. I seriously doubt Trump is going to do much better with actual self-described Dems as McCain (10%) or Romney (7%).

Perhaps the better new (but convoluted) term would be "Trump Dem-leaning Independents". That would be indies who voted for Obama in 2008 (when he got 52%), but probably didnt vote at all in 2012 (when he got 45%), and are now considering Trump.

[Badger]

Since this incredibly stupid term is rearing its ugly head again, some things need to be pointed out:

1-"Reagan Democrats" by and large were not blue collar union workers. For proof go look at the 1984 results in Western Pennsylvania or the West Virginia coalfield.
2-Most "Reagan Democrats" ceased to even be Democrats after that. They were mostly the white blue dog southerners.
3-Reagan was last in an election 32 years ago. The youngest people who voted for Reagan are going to be 50 years old. And these would be people who voted for him in his first election, not consistent Democratic voters prior to that.

Basically the actual Reagan Democrats are all either in retirement homes or dead today. They're not commuting to their stereotypical blue collar job listening to John Mellancamp and Bruce Springsteen along the way and there's no group of people or demographic today that could be accurately defined as even sharing the traits of "Reagan Democrats" who are an important swing demographic. The term is meaningless as applied to any 21st century election. You might as well talk about "LBJ Republicans". So no, Trump is not going to win any states on the strength of "Reagan Democrats", the few that remain might vote for him but they've been voting Republican for decades now already.

It's good posts like this, BRTD, that make your attention whore posts about scene bands, hipster Christianity, and suburbs all worth it.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Boomers voted twice for Obama in 2008 and in 2012.

[Maxwell]

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Boomers voted twice for Obama in 2008 and in 2012.

Wrong - the ages you cited (1945-1960) are 52-67 in 2012, which Romney won according to exit polls. We go back to 2008 and it was a tie - which is significantly lower than the national margin that year. That year, even super olds, which tend to go 10+ Republican only went about 7 points Republican.

[136or142]

the problem is that things have changed in the last couple of generations. Yes Reagan got 27% of Democrats in 1980, but Ford got 20% of Dems in 1976. Back then there simply were a lot more Dems and a lot of them started voting Republican after the 60s. I seriously doubt Trump is going to do much better with actual self-described Dems as McCain (10%) or Romney (7%).

Perhaps the better new (but convoluted) term would be "Trump Dem-leaning Independents". That would be indies who voted for Obama in 2008 (when he got 52%), but probably didnt vote at all in 2012 (when he got 45%), and are now considering Trump.

It wasn't until 1984 that they became "Reagan Democrats."  Most people seem to have forgetten that in the Spring of 1983 Ronald Reagan had a 32% (maybe 33%) approval rating.

There was an article in Rolling Stone at the time that still showed him to be competitive with most Democrats, just as the equally unpopular Jimmy Carter was still competitive with Ronald Reagan according to the polls until the last week of the 1980 election, but that Walter Mondale had something like a 10%  lead (or higher) over Reagan in the Spring of 1983.

It seems that the voters back then were tired of political revolutions or political experiments and wanted somebody they considered to be 'down to earth' which they considered Walter Mondale, and pretty much no other Democrat and certainly not Ronald Reagan with his 'revolution' to be.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Doesn't sound like 'super republican' to me. Boomers have been a notoriously terrible republican 'base'.

They have yet to vote for a Nominee that wasn't a boomer in the last 24 years.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Perhaps, just perhaps the source was not reliable and had zero relation to reality?

[Likely Voter]

It wasn't until 1984 that they became "Reagan Democrats."  

Actually Regan got a smaller percentage of Dems in 1984 (down to 26%), but more importantly, the number describing themselves as Dems dropped from 43% to 38% and those describing themselves as Republicans rose from 28% to 35%.  Again reinforcing how 'Reagan Democrats' were actually becoming Republicans, which was actually a trend (and as others have noted, much of that was due to the obvious movement of Dems to the GOP in the South).

[Badger]

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Perhaps, just perhaps the source was not reliable and had zero relation to reality?

Or, for those of us who remember, Reagan was NOwhere near the popular 49 state sweep guy in 1982-3 due to the (then) worst recession since the Great Depression.

[136or142]

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Perhaps, just perhaps the source was not reliable and had zero relation to reality?

Do you have any source that indicates this isn't true?  I, like you, have some doubts about their explanation for why Walter Mondale was the only Democrat with a clear lead over Reagan at the time, but I have zero reason to doubt the accuracy of their numbers.

[136or142]

It wasn't until 1984 that they became "Reagan Democrats."  

Actually Regan got a smaller percentage of Dems in 1984 (down to 26%), but more importantly, the number describing themselves as Dems dropped from 43% to 38% and those describing themselves as Republicans rose from 28% to 35%.  Again reinforcing how 'Reagan Democrats' were actually becoming Republicans, which was actually a trend (and as others have noted, much of that was due to the obvious movement of Dems to the GOP in the South).

And much of the Midwest as well.

[136or142]

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Doesn't sound like 'super republican' to me. Boomers have been a notoriously terrible republican 'base'.

Yes, but nobody is claiming (or nobody should be claiming) that all boomers are heavily Republican, only that white boomers are heavily Republican.

If the exit polls on the boomers are adjusted to only include white voters, my guess is that it would back up the claim that (white) baby boomers are the most heavily Republican large voting demographic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with the term isn't so much that it's inaccurate, but that it's very vaguely defined and isn't being used as much else but a general Handwave as to why Trump can win states he won't.