VA - Roanoke College: Clinton - 38 Trump - 38

[Terry the Fat Shark]

New poll from Roanoke College in VA conducted from May 9- May 17 :
http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_may_2016_general_election

Trump - 38
Clinton - 38

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

lol no

[bumpercrop]

Hahahaha what CRAP

[Gass3268]

It's really not the result that's crappy, it's the fact they didn't push the 24% of the undecideds any harder.

[john cage bubblegum]

It's really not the result that's crappy, it's the fact they didn't push the 24% of the undecideds any harder.

This is basically my feeling.  Roanoke was a pretty poor pollster in 2012 throwing up some pretty ridiculous outliers.  Looks like they're trying to avoid that to some extent, as they are weighting their sample to match the 2012 exit poll. 

A tie isn't unreasonable given where the race is nationally right now, but that a crazy amount of undecideds.

[pbrower2a]

Under 40 for both -- throw it out. Worthless.

I saw a poll of Tennessee in 2008 that showed Obama leading 38-36.  That's why I throw this one out.

[Seriously?]

B-b-but Fairfax County Northern Virginia ()   /s

Seriously, though: This is obviously a terrible poll from a pollster with a bad record, but could you imagine Atlas' reaction if Trump somehow won Virginia? Christ....

Trump should win Virginia in a Trump +2 or even a Trump -2 environment in an open election.

I don't care for the traditional wisdom of the red avatars in this place. It's still a battleground state with a slight Republican lean in a national tie scenario. I am not shocked by the outcome of this poll given the status of the race at this point, even if the pollster is questionable. With that said, I'd love to see the meltdown when Trump takes the state in November,

[bumpercrop]

B-b-but Fairfax County Northern Virginia ()   /s

Seriously, though: This is obviously a terrible poll from a pollster with a bad record, but could you imagine Atlas' reaction if Trump somehow won Virginia? Christ....

Trump should win Virginia in a Trump +2 or even a Trump -2 environment in an open election.

I don't care for the traditional wisdom of the red avatars in this place. It's still a battleground state with a slight Republican lean in a national tie scenario. I am not shocked by the outcome of this poll given the status of the race at this point, even if the pollster is questionable. With that said, I'd love to see the meltdown when Trump takes the state in November,

Evidence for your delusional claims?

[MT Treasurer]

I'd argue that Clinton's floor in Virginia is roughly 47.5%, while Trump's floor is 44%. There aren't that many swing voters in VA and the state definitely tilts D in a very close election. This is also a state where Obama will campaign vigorously for Clinton. Trump shouldn't ignore VA, but I'm pretty sure that PA is a better bet for him.

[Seriously?]

B-b-but Fairfax County Northern Virginia ()   /s

Seriously, though: This is obviously a terrible poll from a pollster with a bad record, but could you imagine Atlas' reaction if Trump somehow won Virginia? Christ....

Trump should win Virginia in a Trump +2 or even a Trump -2 environment in an open election.

I don't care for the traditional wisdom of the red avatars in this place. It's still a battleground state with a slight Republican lean in a national tie scenario. I am not shocked by the outcome of this poll given the status of the race at this point, even if the pollster is questionable. With that said, I'd love to see the meltdown when Trump takes the state in November,

Evidence for your delusional claims?

Delusional? Seriously?

Compare the national popular vote over the last 5 Presidential cycles to the Democrat/Republican vote share in Virginia. In every cycle there is a slight lean on the Republican side. 2012 is the closest to the actual nationwide margin where Virginia was a bellwether, but the deviation is generally between 1-3 points.

Even in 2012, there was a slight lean Republican from the national numbers (.1%).

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Interestingly, people see Clinton as dealing with problems that matter to them better than Trump in this poll.

[IceSpear]

Roanoke is one of the worst pollsters. They're equal opportunity terrible though. They had Romney and Allen winning handily, and McAuliffe winning in a massive landslide. lol

[bumpercrop]

B-b-but Fairfax County Northern Virginia ()   /s

Seriously, though: This is obviously a terrible poll from a pollster with a bad record, but could you imagine Atlas' reaction if Trump somehow won Virginia? Christ....

Trump should win Virginia in a Trump +2 or even a Trump -2 environment in an open election.

I don't care for the traditional wisdom of the red avatars in this place. It's still a battleground state with a slight Republican lean in a national tie scenario. I am not shocked by the outcome of this poll given the status of the race at this point, even if the pollster is questionable. With that said, I'd love to see the meltdown when Trump takes the state in November,

Evidence for your delusional claims?

Delusional? Seriously?

Compare the national popular vote over the last 5 Presidential cycles to the Democrat/Republican vote share in Virginia. In every cycle there is a slight lean on the Republican side. 2012 is the closest to the actual nationwide margin where Virginia was a bellwether, but the deviation is generally between 1-3 points.

Even in 2012, there was a slight lean Republican from the national numbers (.1%).

.1% isn't significant. It has gotten more and more Democratic relative to the national number every election cycle. Donald Trump is not going to carry Virginia in a tied election. Not sure if you've ever been to Virginia or know anything about it, but it's not going to happen.

[Heisenberg]

B-b-but Fairfax County Northern Virginia ()   /s

Seriously, though: This is obviously a terrible poll from a pollster with a bad record, but could you imagine Atlas' reaction if Trump somehow won Virginia? Christ....

Trump should win Virginia in a Trump +2 or even a Trump -2 environment in an open election.

I don't care for the traditional wisdom of the red avatars in this place. It's still a battleground state with a slight Republican lean in a national tie scenario. I am not shocked by the outcome of this poll given the status of the race at this point, even if the pollster is questionable. With that said, I'd love to see the meltdown when Trump takes the state in November,

Evidence for your delusional claims?

Delusional? Seriously?

Compare the national popular vote over the last 5 Presidential cycles to the Democrat/Republican vote share in Virginia. In every cycle there is a slight lean on the Republican side. 2012 is the closest to the actual nationwide margin where Virginia was a bellwether, but the deviation is generally between 1-3 points.

Even in 2012, there was a slight lean Republican from the national numbers (.1%).

.1% isn't significant. It has gotten more and more Democratic relative to the national number every election cycle. Donald Trump is not going to carry Virginia in a tied election. Not sure if you've ever been to Virginia or know anything about it, but it's not going to happen.

Virginia's partisan tilt all comes down to black turnout levels, as well as how much the Republican can rack up in the Appalachian part of the state, and how high the turnout/Democratic lean is in Northern Virginia. Virginia should remain a bellwether state for about a decade or so.

[Maxwell]

lol Roanoke College

Junk Poll!

[Seriously?]

B-b-but Fairfax County Northern Virginia ()   /s

Seriously, though: This is obviously a terrible poll from a pollster with a bad record, but could you imagine Atlas' reaction if Trump somehow won Virginia? Christ....

Trump should win Virginia in a Trump +2 or even a Trump -2 environment in an open election.

I don't care for the traditional wisdom of the red avatars in this place. It's still a battleground state with a slight Republican lean in a national tie scenario. I am not shocked by the outcome of this poll given the status of the race at this point, even if the pollster is questionable. With that said, I'd love to see the meltdown when Trump takes the state in November,

Evidence for your delusional claims?

Delusional? Seriously?

Compare the national popular vote over the last 5 Presidential cycles to the Democrat/Republican vote share in Virginia. In every cycle there is a slight lean on the Republican side. 2012 is the closest to the actual nationwide margin where Virginia was a bellwether, but the deviation is generally between 1-3 points.

Even in 2012, there was a slight lean Republican from the national numbers (.1%).

.1% isn't significant. It has gotten more and more Democratic relative to the national number every election cycle. Donald Trump is not going to carry Virginia in a tied election. Not sure if you've ever been to Virginia or know anything about it, but it's not going to happen.

Virginia's partisan tilt all comes down to black turnout levels, as well as how much the Republican can rack up in the Appalachian part of the state, and how high the turnout/Democratic lean is in Northern Virginia. Virginia should remain a bellwether state for about a decade or so.

Bingo. And I don't think Hillary! is going to inspire the same African American turnout levels as Obama. A tie (or anything close) will favor Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Bingo. And I don't think Hillary! is going to inspire the same African American turnout levels as Obama. A tie (or anything close) will favor Trump.

If Terry McAuliffe can inspire them, Clinton can as well.

[Seriously?]

Bingo. And I don't think Hillary! is going to inspire the same African American turnout levels as Obama. A tie (or anything close) will favor Trump.

If Terry McAuliffe can inspire them, Clinton can as well.

The only thing Hillary! does is inspire rank-and-file Republicans to come out en masse to vote against her. I'd crawl through broken glass to make sure that crook never becomes President.

As I have stated earlier, you are not going to get the same black turnout as you did in 2008 and 2012 for Hlilary! as you did for Obama. If the race is close, that will favor the Republicans in an open seat election.

[dax00]

It's really not the result that's crappy, it's the fact they didn't push the 24% of the undecideds any harder.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Uh oh.  Terrible news : (

[Mehmentum]

I guess that confirms that Clinton and Trump will both get at least 38% of the vote in Virginia.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Uh oh.  Terrible news : (

The poll has 24% undecided it means literally nothing for either candidate.  Even in October, this company does not push undecideds and gets ridiculous results.

Thank you for your optimism in these dark times.  Hillary is the most unfairly treated person in the world.  Let's hope Virginia comes to their senses and rejects Nasty Donald.

[Adam Griffin]

Virginia's margin will be as large or larger than Wisconsin's in this election. It is the fastest trending state in the country in terms of a) actual vote share and b) the demographics moving into it actually translating into present/future votes (white D-leaners, upscale Asian D-leaners, blacks, etc). Trump ain't winning it unless he's ahead by 3 or more nationally.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia's margin will be as large or larger than Wisconsin's in this election. It is the fastest trending state in the country in terms of a) actual vote share and b) the demographics  moving into it actually translating into present/future votes (white D-leaners, upscale Asian D-leaners, blacks, etc). Trump ain't winning it unless he's ahead by 3 or more nationally.

So you think PA will be the tipping point state, right?

If interpolation (estimating between values) is risky, extrapolation of a trend is just incredibly risky. In accounting, CPA firms do not endorse forecasts of earnings or securities prices. There's just too much that can go wrong.

So let us look at these two states:

State A gave the Republican nominee for President  45.16% of its vote in 1948, and 58.93% of its vote in 1952, and 64.56% of its vote in 1956.

State B gave the Republican nominee for President  39.19% of its vote in 1948, and 56.33% of its vote in 1952, and 53.68% of its vote in 1956.

One could have reasonably expected both states to be trending Republican over time, right?

Wrong. State A is Utah, and State B is Minnesota. Utah went for a Democratic nominee for President only once since then, and Minnesota has gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since then. Nixon got 54.81% of the vote in Utah, and 49.16% in Minnesota, in 1960.

The Republicans took over in Utah politics around 1950 and stayed in charge. Ike was simply the best match that the Republicans ever had for Minnesota and Stevenson was a very poor match for Minnesota. Such an observation is possible in hindsight when one sees statistical trends beyond three events.

So is Virginia "State A or "State B" this time?

- 2004 - 2008 - 2012
A 49.1 -  56.9 - 53.0
B 45.5 -  52.6 - 51.1

(the percentages are of the Democratic share of the vote in the Presidential elections in those years).

You tell me this time which state has the overpowering, irreversible D trend. It could simply be that Barack Obama is the best cultural match for Virginia since Harry Truman.

A hint: one is New Mexico, and the other is Virginia. Both states are very different in their demographics and political heritage. The states are even more dissimilar than Minnesota and Utah in demographics. Until November we do not know whether the 2008 and 2012 elections mean anything more in 2016 than how the states went in 2008 and 2012?  

...So which state do I think will be the tipping-point state? From 1988 to the present they are:

MI 1988
TN 1992
OR 1996
FL 2000
OH 2004
IA 2008
CO 2012

Try to find a pattern in those states.

I see a range of possible scenarios from a bare Trump win to an overwhelming Clinton landslide. In a bare Trump win (just over 270 electoral votes) , the closest of his wins is likely the tipping-point state. In a bare Clinton win (just over 270 electoral votes), then the closest of her wins could easily be the tipping-point state. If she gets about 300 electoral votes (analogous to Truman in 1948 or Kennedy in 1960), then her tipping-point state is close to her margin of victory. A median win (for which there is only one analogue since 1900, and that was 2012; I see that as one of the most unlikely results), it is one of several states that wise people thought she had to win one of among three or four to have a chance to win and Obama won three or four such states) -- which would likely be one of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. A near-landslide analogous to one of the two BILL Clinton wins or Obama 2008 -- and it is a state deep in the pack, probably close to her margin of victory. That could be an unusual and unlikely win for her (South Dakota?) or a state that does not swing much (Minnesota?)

Democrats have the edge in the Electoral College because they have advantages in the states with the largest numbers of electoral votes. The biggest states in electoral votes that Mitt Romney won were Texas (38), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona and Indiana (11 each). Florida and Ohio are about neutral, and Obama won both of them... but the biggest five other states that Obama won in the Electoral College in 2012 were California (55), New York (29), Illinois and Pennsylvania (20 each), and Michigan (16).  


  

 




  

[Devils30]

I could see Clinton/Trump in Virginia looking like Northam/Jackson when it's all done.