CA- Survey USA/ABC7: Clinton +18

[Fargobison]

Clinton 57
Sanders 39

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/

[Maxwell]

lol this is great

[Fusionmunster]

I think it'll be closer but I dont think it'll be anything for Clinton to sweat about.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

So Sanders has how many days to surge 40 points?

[IceSpear]

So Sanders has how many days to surge 40 points?

I think it's 70 now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, here are the Benchmark predictions.
Overall they see a 56-44 Clinton victory.

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL! Thank you CALIFORNIA!

[MT Treasurer]

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

[Fusionmunster]

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

Yeah, I dont think it'll be +18. But Im not one to unskew Still, if I were a 10 point win seems likely.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

Sanders only up 5 among young voters? Below 40% among whites? Yeah right. JUNK POLL!!!!!

[Fusionmunster]

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

Sanders only up 5 among young voters? Below 40% among whites? Yeah right. JUNK POLL!!!!!

SurveyUSA, as you know, is one of the best. Besides that though, even though Sanders will win the youth vote it wont be by a huge(compared to other states)margin because of the high percentage of minorities.

[HAnnA MArin County]

The college kiddies in Arcata and Berkeley won't be enough to save Senile Sanders here.
#DropOutBernie

[Ronnie]

The college kiddies in Arcata and Berkeley won't be enough to save Senile Sanders here.
#DropOutBernie

And I'll personally ensure he doesn't sweep the white male student vote in UCLA.

[Eraserhead]

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

SUSA's subsamples continue to be nonsensical.

[dspNY]

Field showed a closer race with Hillary ahead...so if they show her ahead again it was nice knowing ya Bernie

[This account no longer in use.]

And thus, the unskewing begins.

[NOVA Green]

So anyone know how they define the different regions and which counties are included?

[Ebsy]

SUSA, even though it is a very good pollster, likely has difficulty polling Spanish speakers in California.

[NOVA Green]

Full report:

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Whites: 59% Clinton, 36% Sanders
Hispanics: 52% Clinton, 46% Sanders
Blacks: 67% Clinton, 28% Sanders
Asians: 58% Clinton, 37% Sanders

18-34 year olds: 52% Sanders, 47% Clinton
35-49 year olds: 54% Clinton, 42% Sanders
50-64 year olds: 64% Clinton, 30% Sanders
65+ year olds: 70% Clinton, 25% Sanders

Regardless of inaccuracies of subsample sizes in this poll and exit polls.... here are the '08 California Dem Primary Exit Polls.


Sex by race
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
25   White men   33   60   5
28   White women   53   40   6
3   Black men   18   82   -
3   Black women   14   79   7
13   Latino men   62   37   1
16   Latino women   69   30   0
12   All other races   64   31   5

Family income
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
38   Less than $50,000   57   39   3
62   $50,000 or more   45   50   4
Family income
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
71   Less than $100,000   52   42   4
29   $100,000 or more   43   54   2




Party
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
79   Democrat   55   41   3
3   Republican   -   -   -
18   Independent or something else   31   61   5
Political philosophy
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
51   Liberal   48   48   3
37   Moderate   54   41   4
13   Conservative   48   46   5


In deciding your vote for president today, was the gender of the candidate:
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
23   Important   69   28   3
In deciding your vote for president today, was the race of the candidate:
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
17   Important   59   40   1
Population of area, three categories
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
50   City over 50 thousand   52   44   3
43   Suburbs   50   44   4
8   Small city and Rural   46   47   5
Age
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
16   18-29   47   52   -
25   30-44   46   50   2
31   45-59   52   44   3
28   60 or over   53   37   8
Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual?
Pct. of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
4   Yes   62   32   2

[NOVA Green]

So several key questions assuming some of the most dramatic shifts between Hillary '08 versus Hillary '16 have at least some element of truth:

1.) Many Anglo's in the two large Metro areas are significantly wealthier with higher household incomes and older than the general state population. Has there been a significant swing from Obama '08 to Hillary '16 amongst this demographic group?
2.) Latino support for Sanders appears to be extremely high compared to many other states that have voted, but note that actually Obama did quite well amongst Latino voters in '08 in California versus other states. Is this partially a result of younger voters in a state with a much higher voter participation rate, than for example states like Texas and Arizona? Compared to other states, I think we can assume that Bernie will overperform Obama '08 numbers among voters <30 from all demographic backgrounds.
3.) Asian-American voters in California are a bit of an unknown considering limited previous data points, and also that unfortunately this is a "catch-all" phrase used to describe Americans of a wide variety of backgrounds and self-identification.
4.) Where to the 4% of Californians that voted for Edwards/Kuchinich in '08 go? Many counties in Northern California had 8-12% votes for candidates that had dropped out of the race.
5.) AA voters- Although only the 4th largest ethnic group in California, we can assume there will be a swing towards Hillary resembling the 67-33 margins in other Northern states.
6.) Young voters- Regardless of California demographics it is hard to see Obama +5% margins remaining the same as Bernie +5% margins within this age group.


Still working on the math and county map projections, but yes do believe it will a Clinton win 8-10%.

[Crumpets]

At this point, it would actually be pretty funny if Bernie were to surge at the last minute, win by like 40 points, but still end up short of his needed number.

[EliteLX]

Meanwhile, our friends over at /r/S4P:

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Is this the first poll where Bernie does better with Hispanics than with whites?

[Holmes]

Is this the first poll where Bernie does better with Hispanics than with whites?

It's SUSA, their crosstabs are always really bad, but their toplines are pretty good. I think it'll be a more 8-10% win for Clinton in the end (and she'll do better with latinos than whites - not that we'll ever know, no exit polls, but we'll have a good idea based on how well she performs in SoCal and Central Valley and how bad she does in the northern region of the state).

[Hydera]

In case people talk about the massive poll failure in Michigan and Indiana. California has a lot more minorities percentage wise than those two states. The Black vote allowed Hillary to win Kentucky very closely. With the minority vote being so dominant in one state it is unlikely that he pulls a suprise like he did in Michigan and Indiana.