if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 10:40:51 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22) 		« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22)  (Read 1185 times)
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 23, 2016, 08:29:20 PM »
Then Election 2016 is over.

1. TRUMP did surprisingly well of the Minorities of SurveyUSA CA Poll
Total 1383 LV (Page 5)
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%
Black(83 LV) : TRUMP 17% | Hillary 76%

2. if TRUMP gets similar Minorities Support at Nationwide,
Election 2016 it gonna be a landslide for him. something like

TRUMP 51.27% | Hillary 43.7% | Other Candidates 5%

if White voters: gonna be like TRUMP 60% Hillary 37% Other 3%

1) TRUMP
White(73%) x 60% + Black(12%) x 17% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 35%
+ Asian(3%) x 40% + Other(1.5%) x 40% = 51.27%

2) Hillary
White(73%) x 37% + Black(12%) x 76% + Hispanic(10.5%) x 51%
+ Asian(3%) x 49% + Other(1.5%) x 49% = 43.68%
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,640
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2016, 09:15:03 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2016, 09:18:34 PM by Nyvin »
Oddly you left out these parts of the poll:



I find it kinda hard to believe blacks will only be 6% of the electorate, and hispanics will be 31% though.
Logged
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2016, 09:29:30 PM »
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2016, 09:41:43 PM »
Were people cherry-picking polls like this in 2012 to say Romney would pull 20% of the black vote because a Gravis poll with N=200 said so?
Logged
dax00
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,422


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2016, 09:48:49 PM »
The demographic breakdown kinda makes sense considering the 2012 California exit polls...

Definitely shouldn't be extrapolated for the rest of America.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,091
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2016, 10:18:01 PM »
You should proportion the undecideds based on what the decided groups have done, rather than leaving them out and/or assuming they're going to vote third party.

The two way model of this:
Logged
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,831


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2016, 10:35:38 PM »
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,944
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2016, 10:53:08 PM »
>Sees Trump in all caps.
>Stops reading.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2016, 11:23:12 PM »
ZOMGZ! One poll with teh favrobale crosstabs means TRUMP will do that well in EVERY STATE! YAY!
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,051
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2016, 12:57:42 AM »
Quote from: whitesox130 on May 23, 2016, 09:41:43 PM
Were people cherry-picking polls like this in 2012 to say Romney would pull 20% of the black vote because a Gravis poll with N=200 said so?

Yes. I was one of them.
Logged
IceAgeComing
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,564
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2016, 06:09:23 AM »
yes i also trust cross-tabs with an 83 sample size, that surely must be very accurate
Logged
President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,008
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2016, 06:26:06 AM »
With you spelling it like that, maybe you should take your own advice.

EDIT: Also, StatesPoll, No.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2016, 05:21:08 PM »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Using the sliders, adjusting nothing else, Hillary still wins. 332-206.  51-47
Logged
Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,085


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2016, 05:28:59 PM »
no
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2016, 05:43:06 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2016, 06:35:05 PM by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

:lol: Yuuuge error bars. Hey, that's plus minus only 11 percent or so.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.