Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)
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  Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)
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Author Topic: Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)  (Read 9991 times)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #175 on: May 25, 2016, 07:41:00 PM »

Looking at the map...I don't understand how Sanders could be so relatively close to Clinton and yet have a map with the percentages in each county that exist. If I didn't know the statewide figures and looked at that map, I would have thought Clinton won by 12 points or more. King County was over one-third of the vote, nearly 60% Clinton and was Clinton's best county in the state.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #176 on: May 25, 2016, 07:41:57 PM »

Final Totals for today:

Clinton 380760 52.95%
Sanders 338283 47.05%

There will be more updates Tomorrow and Friday.
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Holmes
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« Reply #177 on: May 25, 2016, 07:47:58 PM »

Looking at the map...I don't understand how Sanders could be so relatively close to Clinton and yet have a map with the percentages in each county that exist. If I didn't know the statewide figures and looked at that map, I would have thought Clinton won by 12 points or more. King County was over one-third of the vote, nearly 60% Clinton and was Clinton's best county in the state.

Yeah, both candidates' support is spread out pretty evenly between counties. The majority of counties are all mid to high single digit wins. Their support isn't really concentrated in regions. Only two counties really stand out - King for Clinton and Whatcom for Sanders.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #178 on: May 25, 2016, 07:53:15 PM »

Also, the new republican results:

TRUMP 403003 75.82%
Cruz 55719 10.48%
Kasich 52129 9.81%
Carson 20646 3.88%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #179 on: May 25, 2016, 07:59:49 PM »

So how much is still uncounted? like 40,000 ballots?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #180 on: May 25, 2016, 08:01:52 PM »

It looks like this could end up being pretty damn close. I'm wondering if they maybe jumped the gun a little on calling it.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #181 on: May 25, 2016, 08:04:05 PM »

So how much is still uncounted? like 40,000 ballots?
At least 111,682, their may be more still in the mail. Those are just the ones that have been received but not yet counted.
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« Reply #182 on: May 25, 2016, 08:10:05 PM »

It looks like this could end up being pretty damn close. I'm wondering if they maybe jumped the gun a little on calling it.

Nah. Sanders only shrunk the margin from 7.26% to 5.9%. In terms of raw votes the difference went from ~50k to ~42.5k

There are ~111,000 ballots left to be counted, ~80,000 of which come from King and Shnomish counties. Spokane has ~7,000 left, Skagit ~5,000. Everywhere else is at <= ~3,000 left.

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #183 on: May 25, 2016, 08:18:08 PM »

It looks like this could end up being pretty damn close. I'm wondering if they maybe jumped the gun a little on calling it.

Nah. Sanders only shrunk the margin from 7.26% to 5.9%. In terms of raw votes the difference went from ~50k to ~42.5k

There are ~111,000 ballots left to be counted, ~80,000 of which come from King and Shnomish counties. Spokane has ~7,000 left, Skagit ~5,000. Everywhere else is at <= ~3,000 left.


Well then let me be the first to say: THANK YOU WASHINGTON!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #184 on: May 25, 2016, 08:39:52 PM »

Looking at the map...I don't understand how Sanders could be so relatively close to Clinton and yet have a map with the percentages in each county that exist. If I didn't know the statewide figures and looked at that map, I would have thought Clinton won by 12 points or more. King County was over one-third of the vote, nearly 60% Clinton and was Clinton's best county in the state.

It all has to do with election night returns 49-51 Clinton if we remove King County and appears to be 50-50 as of "First Wave" mail in ballot returns and will likely change even more dramatically tomorrow.

Of the 60k ballots counted today in Washington, results are 55-45 Bernie.

There are an estimated 111k "ballots on hand" to be counted and approximately 41% are from King County, and likely we will see a significant drop in the Hillary percentage in King County with "Wave Two" ballots that will probably trend closer to the "Wave One" of the late vote.

Note that King County basically has one of LOWEST reported voter turnout rates at 27.6% only higher than Snomomish, Whitman, and Yakima county.

What this tells me is this, based upon similar patterns of vote-by-mail returns in Metro-Portland, is that there are a large number of votes yet to be counted in King and Snohomish counties, and the county election offices are focused on day-to-day business while they move through the slow process of counting ballots in what is essentially a meaningless election on both the Republican and Democratic sides of the house.

I love vote-by-mail, but unfortunately it makes it extremely frustrating trying to actually get final votes in contests where there is no political impact nor urgency to finalize the vote counting. Sad

Edit: Saw the other responses after writing this. I do not see Bernie winning this considering what appear to be the overall turnout levels BUT, there is a similar trend that we will see in Washington state regarding extremely poor performance in small-town and rural parts of the state, even though King County will essentially give her the win in the low-turnout beauty contest, combined with a few heavily Latino counties in Eastern Washington that I predicted before, and likely a HOLD in Pierce county and Snohomish flip.

Key question is where final King/Pierce/Snohomish numbers end up, honestly I have no idea what the next few days numbers from those counties will show, based upon Metro-Portland numbers where we saw two counties flip from Hillary to Bernie within 48 hours and Multnomah county go from a 10 point to a 20 point lead within 4 days.

Vote by Mail has its downsides... Sad





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Badger
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« Reply #185 on: May 25, 2016, 08:43:31 PM »

Can anyone please give me one good reason the DNC shouldn't (ahead of the 2020 primaries, obviously) announce they won't seat delegates from any state that holds a caucus instead of a primary?

President Clinton will be up for reelection and shouldn't have a major challenger so the elimination of caucuses could be done easily and without any accusations of bias in favor of a particular candidate.
Iowa would throw a fit.  It'd have to be a 'no caucuses on or after Super Tuesday' rule.
If Iowa throws a fit just threaten to not seat their delegates in the 2024 primary as well & give another state permission to go before them if they don't cooperate. Seriously, the DNC should have more power than the Iowa Democratic Party.

The backlash in the state would be so intense that it would give 6 EVs to Republicans without any effort.

OK, make an exception for IA, and MAYBE any other state that can demonstrate a REAL problem (legal, logistical, etc.) with holding a primary instead of a caucus. Everyone else lumps it.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #186 on: May 25, 2016, 08:55:29 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2016, 11:34:01 PM by Thinking Crumpets Crumpet »

IIRC Washington tried to switch to a primary and the DNC were the ones who got in the way - hence the beauty contest.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #187 on: May 25, 2016, 09:02:55 PM »

Looking at the map...I don't understand how Sanders could be so relatively close to Clinton and yet have a map with the percentages in each county that exist. If I didn't know the statewide figures and looked at that map, I would have thought Clinton won by 12 points or more. King County was over one-third of the vote, nearly 60% Clinton and was Clinton's best county in the state.

It all has to do with election night returns 49-51 Clinton if we remove King County and appears to be 50-50 as of "First Wave" mail in ballot returns and will likely change even more dramatically tomorrow.

Of the 60k ballots counted today in Washington, results are 55-45 Bernie.

There are an estimated 111k "ballots on hand" to be counted and approximately 41% are from King County, and likely we will see a significant drop in the Hillary percentage in King County with "Wave Two" ballots that will probably trend closer to the "Wave One" of the late vote.

Note that King County basically has one of LOWEST reported voter turnout rates at 27.6% only higher than Snomomish, Whitman, and Yakima county.

What this tells me is this, based upon similar patterns of vote-by-mail returns in Metro-Portland, is that there are a large number of votes yet to be counted in King and Snohomish counties, and the county election offices are focused on day-to-day business while they move through the slow process of counting ballots in what is essentially a meaningless election on both the Republican and Democratic sides of the house.

I love vote-by-mail, but unfortunately it makes it extremely frustrating trying to actually get final votes in contests where there is no political impact nor urgency to finalize the vote counting. Sad

Edit: Saw the other responses after writing this. I do not see Bernie winning this considering what appear to be the overall turnout levels BUT, there is a similar trend that we will see in Washington state regarding extremely poor performance in small-town and rural parts of the state, even though King County will essentially give her the win in the low-turnout beauty contest, combined with a few heavily Latino counties in Eastern Washington that I predicted before, and likely a HOLD in Pierce county and Snohomish flip.

Key question is where final King/Pierce/Snohomish numbers end up, honestly I have no idea what the next few days numbers from those counties will show, based upon Metro-Portland numbers where we saw two counties flip from Hillary to Bernie within 48 hours and Multnomah county go from a 10 point to a 20 point lead within 4 days.

Vote by Mail has its downsides... Sad

Yeah, it's definitely worth keeping an eye on at least.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #188 on: May 25, 2016, 09:05:12 PM »

IIRC Washington tried to switch to a primary and the DNC werected the ones who got in the way - hence the beauty contest.

I thought that Washington Republicans pushed for a March primary for both sides and the Dem SoS opposed it for some reason to the point that Op-Eds in major newspapers in Washington State were calling to voters to vote just to send a message to the SoS so that Washington State could actually be the first West Coast state and largest Western state to have a primary where we could actually have a voice in national elections, where usually the West Coast is last to vote?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #189 on: May 25, 2016, 09:30:35 PM »

Looking at the map...I don't understand how Sanders could be so relatively close to Clinton and yet have a map with the percentages in each county that exist. If I didn't know the statewide figures and looked at that map, I would have thought Clinton won by 12 points or more. King County was over one-third of the vote, nearly 60% Clinton and was Clinton's best county in the state.

It all has to do with election night returns 49-51 Clinton if we remove King County and appears to be 50-50 as of "First Wave" mail in ballot returns and will likely change even more dramatically tomorrow.

Of the 60k ballots counted today in Washington, results are 55-45 Bernie.

There are an estimated 111k "ballots on hand" to be counted and approximately 41% are from King County, and likely we will see a significant drop in the Hillary percentage in King County with "Wave Two" ballots that will probably trend closer to the "Wave One" of the late vote.

Note that King County basically has one of LOWEST reported voter turnout rates at 27.6% only higher than Snomomish, Whitman, and Yakima county.

What this tells me is this, based upon similar patterns of vote-by-mail returns in Metro-Portland, is that there are a large number of votes yet to be counted in King and Snohomish counties, and the county election offices are focused on day-to-day business while they move through the slow process of counting ballots in what is essentially a meaningless election on both the Republican and Democratic sides of the house.

I love vote-by-mail, but unfortunately it makes it extremely frustrating trying to actually get final votes in contests where there is no political impact nor urgency to finalize the vote counting. Sad

Edit: Saw the other responses after writing this. I do not see Bernie winning this considering what appear to be the overall turnout levels BUT, there is a similar trend that we will see in Washington state regarding extremely poor performance in small-town and rural parts of the state, even though King County will essentially give her the win in the low-turnout beauty contest, combined with a few heavily Latino counties in Eastern Washington that I predicted before, and likely a HOLD in Pierce county and Snohomish flip.

Key question is where final King/Pierce/Snohomish numbers end up, honestly I have no idea what the next few days numbers from those counties will show, based upon Metro-Portland numbers where we saw two counties flip from Hillary to Bernie within 48 hours and Multnomah county go from a 10 point to a 20 point lead within 4 days.

Vote by Mail has its downsides... Sad

Yeah, it's definitely worth keeping an eye on at least.

Well one of the real issues with this Vote-by-mail structure is that absolutely nobody has any ideas of how many ballots are still outstanding....

We can assume that Washington State primary turnout is approximately half of Oregon's vote-by-mail numbers, significantly skewing the overall electoral Demographics regardless of Hillary being a an overall better fit for Washington than Oregon amongst the Democratic electorate.

Look particularly at ballots postmarked from registered voters in Washington state in college in other states.... military ballots in one of the states with the highest proportion of active service members in the country, including many career military personnel from Fort Lewis, McCord, Bremerton, etc... as well as what appear to be extremely low turnout numbers in the highest income and educated counties in the state that historically vote overwhelmingly Democratic in GE and National elections.

Multnomah County Oregon is at 70% turnout with VbM and King county is only at 27% as of today...

No question that margins will narrow significantly even though Hillary appears to have won King County by large margins.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #190 on: May 25, 2016, 09:57:21 PM »

Can anyone please give me one good reason the DNC shouldn't (ahead of the 2020 primaries, obviously) announce they won't seat delegates from any state that holds a caucus instead of a primary?

President Clinton will be up for reelection and shouldn't have a major challenger so the elimination of caucuses could be done easily and without any accusations of bias in favor of a particular candidate.
Iowa would throw a fit.  It'd have to be a 'no caucuses on or after Super Tuesday' rule.
If Iowa throws a fit just threaten to not seat their delegates in the 2024 primary as well & give another state permission to go before them if they don't cooperate. Seriously, the DNC should have more power than the Iowa Democratic Party.

The backlash in the state would be so intense that it would give 6 EVs to Republicans without any effort.

OK, make an exception for IA, and MAYBE any other state that can demonstrate a REAL problem (legal, logistical, etc.) with holding a primary instead of a caucus. Everyone else lumps it.

Yeah, there's really no need to strongarm Iowa. It wouldn't be worth the fuss.

There's no reason for any other state to have one though, particularly a big state like Washington.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #191 on: May 26, 2016, 04:46:46 AM »

National popular vote update on the Republican side…Trump’s support now rounds up to 42%:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 42%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 14%
Rubio 13%
Carson 3%
Bush 1%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #192 on: May 26, 2016, 03:21:43 PM »

When are we supposed to get the next vote dump?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #193 on: May 26, 2016, 03:36:54 PM »

Around 7 PM eastern tonight
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Holmes
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« Reply #194 on: May 26, 2016, 03:37:14 PM »

When are we supposed to get the next vote dump?

There were updates from Pend Oreille and Skamania counties a couple of hours ago, not that it really made any difference. Yesterday the big dump came between 4 - 5 PST.
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dax00
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« Reply #195 on: May 26, 2016, 03:44:34 PM »

My May 22 prediction was so tremendous (Trump 76, Cruz 12, Kasich 10), and it's only looking better with each vote dump.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #196 on: May 26, 2016, 04:06:25 PM »


Cool, thanks.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #197 on: May 26, 2016, 04:57:43 PM »

Skamania is the coolest name for a county.  I'm sure it's something Native American, but as far as I'm concerned they're crazy for the Ska (music).
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RI
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« Reply #198 on: May 26, 2016, 05:01:00 PM »

Skamania is the coolest name for a county.  I'm sure it's something Native American, but as far as I'm concerned they're crazy for the Ska (music).

It's Chinook for "swift waters"
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #199 on: May 26, 2016, 05:02:01 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.
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