Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)
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Author Topic: Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)  (Read 9993 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #200 on: May 26, 2016, 05:07:53 PM »
« edited: May 26, 2016, 05:12:41 PM by Alcon »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #201 on: May 26, 2016, 05:11:13 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly win when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.
I think you and I have different understandings of the word crazy.
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Alcon
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« Reply #202 on: May 26, 2016, 05:13:36 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly win when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.
I think you and I have different understandings of the word crazy.

I don't get it.  Am I paying too much attention to election results on the election results forum? Tongue
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #203 on: May 26, 2016, 05:21:40 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.
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Alcon
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« Reply #204 on: May 26, 2016, 05:27:41 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2016, 05:32:03 PM by Alcon »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

Late ballots tend to be more Democratic, often driven by King County.  They've been slightly more D so far.  Yakima is an outlier, though.  I guess the Latino vote came in late, although it's interesting that Sanders is also winning the late vote, since Clinton is at 56% in heavily Latino precincts.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the Air Force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)
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Crumpets
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« Reply #205 on: May 26, 2016, 05:28:30 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the air force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

Where are you guys finding precinct-specific data?
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Alcon
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« Reply #206 on: May 26, 2016, 05:31:10 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the air force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

Where are you guys finding precinct-specific data?

The Secretary of State web site has a little "Precinct Results" link at the bottom for about half the counties.  King releases their Election Night precinct results tomorrow afternoon.

See: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/clark/
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #207 on: May 26, 2016, 05:33:03 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

Late ballots tend to be more Democratic, often driven by King County.  They've been slightly more D so far.  Yakima is an outlier, though.  I guess the Latino vote came in late, although it's interesting that Sanders is also winning the late vote, since Clinton is at 56% in heavily Latino precincts.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the air force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

Thanks! Those were the four precincts I had identified, although I also looked at State District 2 to try to assess what some of the "offbase" vote might be looking like.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #208 on: May 26, 2016, 06:10:36 PM »

Margin now down to 5.78%.

King County will have the biggest dump, that should be in in 20 minutes.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #209 on: May 26, 2016, 06:24:38 PM »

King county has reported now, similar margin as before 57.44-42.56 in King, and 52.74-47.26 overall. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #210 on: May 26, 2016, 06:31:53 PM »

King county has reported now, similar margin as before 57.44-42.56 in King, and 52.74-47.26 overall. 

So basically "Wave Two" only 51-49 Bernie with an additional ~25k ballots, and only an estimated 7k total ballots to be counted?

If these estimated ballot numbers are close to the truth, looks like King County might have one of the lowest turnout rates in the state...

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« Reply #211 on: May 26, 2016, 07:42:57 PM »

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the air force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

Where are you guys finding precinct-specific data?

The Secretary of State web site has a little "Precinct Results" link at the bottom for about half the counties.  King releases their Election Night precinct results tomorrow afternoon.

See: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/clark/

So Alcon, what precincts do we need to look at in Seattle to have an idea of the Asian-American vote in the West Coast?

This obviously has huge implications for the Dem Primary vote in Cali in particular, where Asian-Americans are the 3rd largest ethnic group with relatively high overall voter turnout rates, and encompass over 25% of the vote in (3-5) counties in the Bay Area alone.

Seattle in particular has both Chinese and Filipino American populations, similar to SF and East Bay, as well as a large Vietnamese population which is especially significant in South Bay.

I ran some precinct numbers for the most heavily Asian-American precincts in Metro Houston ( Sugarland and Texas HD-149) and it looked like Hillary won by 30-40% in areas with a 40% Asian-American population.

Still, some significant differences in the primary calendar, countries of origin, disposable household income, and occupational sectors, make this extremely suspect with West Coast demographics.

So here is a 2010 Census Tract Map of Seattle by % of Asian-American population. Are there any key precincts or indicators of support for candidates in the 2016 Primary?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=15248
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Alcon
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« Reply #212 on: May 26, 2016, 07:45:39 PM »

King county has reported now, similar margin as before 57.44-42.56 in King, and 52.74-47.26 overall. 

So basically "Wave Two" only 51-49 Bernie with an additional ~25k ballots, and only an estimated 7k total ballots to be counted?

If these estimated ballot numbers are close to the truth, looks like King County might have one of the lowest turnout rates in the state...

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/ballotreturnstats/default.aspx

398,109 received

384,985 ready for counting (the received-but-not-ready ballots are probably overwhelmingly challenged for missing/wrong signature, etc.)

378,909 ballots counted

= 6,076 ready to go but not counted, plus whatever arrived today, plus any signature resolutions

= probably around 31.5% turnout at best

So, yes, poor turnout in King County.  It's rare to see turnout in King County about as low as turnout in Pierce County (Tacoma).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #213 on: May 26, 2016, 08:00:40 PM »

52.58% - 47.42% now.
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Alcon
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« Reply #214 on: May 26, 2016, 08:04:00 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2016, 08:05:31 PM by Alcon »

So Alcon, what precincts do we need to look at in Seattle to have an idea of the Asian-American vote in the West Coast?

This obviously has huge implications for the Dem Primary vote in Cali in particular, where Asian-Americans are the 3rd largest ethnic group with relatively high overall voter turnout rates, and encompass over 25% of the vote in (3-5) counties in the Bay Area alone.

Seattle in particular has both Chinese and Filipino American populations, similar to SF and East Bay, as well as a large Vietnamese population which is especially significant in South Bay.

I ran some precinct numbers for the most heavily Asian-American precincts in Metro Houston ( Sugarland and Texas HD-149) and it looked like Hillary won by 30-40% in areas with a 40% Asian-American population.

Still, some significant differences in the primary calendar, countries of origin, disposable household income, and occupational sectors, make this extremely suspect with West Coast demographics.

So here is a 2010 Census Tract Map of Seattle by % of Asian-American population. Are there any key precincts or indicators of support for candidates in the 2016 Primary?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=15248

I just downloaded the King County ballot returns and ran them against a program that estimates ethnicity based on name, location, and some other demographic information.  It's not perfect, since some Asians have 'white' names, and I can't imagine it handles Filipinos with Spanish names perfectly, but it's pretty solid.

There don't appear to have been any majority-Asian precincts, but here's five with more Asian voters than white voters (most also have significant black populations, although all are more white than black):

Sea 37-1622 (48.4%)
Sea 37-3567 (41.7%)
Sea 37-1825 (40.9%)
Sea 37-1640 (40.0%)
Sea 37-3666 (38.7%)

Most of the precincts are in the southern portion of the Beacon Hill neighborhood, plus one in the International District.

There are some Asian voters in Snohomish County as well, but I don't have a list of credited voters there, and they're less concentrated.  I think Seattle is really going to be the only useful metric.
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« Reply #215 on: May 26, 2016, 08:14:56 PM »

Final results for today:

Clinton 404220 52.58%
Sanders 364550 47.42%

So the margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.16%.

More updates tomorrow.

For the GOP:

TRUMP 431387 75.45%
Cruz 61605 10.76%
Kasich 56425 9.86%
Carson 22460 3.92%
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« Reply #216 on: May 27, 2016, 07:11:39 PM »

52.4 - 47.6 now.
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Alcon
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« Reply #217 on: May 27, 2016, 07:14:24 PM »

King County results.  This has tightened some since Election Night, but not by that much.

Algona: 53.1% Sanders
Auburn: 56.1% Clinton
Beaux Arts Village: 70.0% Clinton
Bellevue: 64.5% Clinton
Black Diamond: 60.0% Clinton
Burien: 57.5% Clinton
Clyde Hill: 76.7% Clinton
Covington: 53.1% Clinton
Des Moines: 61.0% Clinton
Duvall: 50.4% Clinton
Enumclaw: 56.1% Clinton
Federal Way: 60.2% Clinton
Hunts Point: 91.9% Clinton
Issaquah: 61.1% Clinton
Kenmore: 58.3% Clinton
Kent: 59.0% Clinton
Kirkland: 60.3% Clinton
Lake Forest Park: 59.6% Clinton
Maple Valley: 53.6% Clinton
Medina: 76.2% Clinton
Mercer Island: 74.1% Clinton
Milton: 54.4% Clinton
Newcastle: 63.5% Clinton
Normandy Park: 60.8% Clinton
North Bend: 54.9% Clinton
Pacific: 53.5% Clinton
Redmond: 57.5% Clinton
Renton: 58.9% Clinton
Sammamish: 63.8% Clinton
SeaTac: 58.0% Clinton
Seattle: 58.2% Clinton
Skykomish: 71.4% Sanders
Snoqualmie: 56.6% Clinton
Tukwila: 57.3% Clinton
Woodinville: 60.5% Clinton
Yarrow Point: 77.9% Clinton

Bryn Mawr-Skyway: 62.0% Clinton
Cascade-Fairwood: 57.7% Clinton
Cottage Lake: 59.9% Clinton
East Hill-Meridian: 56.6% Clinton
East Renton Highlands: 55.7% Clinton

Fall City: 52.0% Sanders
Lake Marcel-Stillwater: 53.2% Sanders

Lakeland North: 59.6% Clinton
Lakeland South: 56.4% Clinton
Maple Heights-Lake Desire: 55.9% Clinton
Mirrormont: 59.3% Clinton
Redmond Ridge: 63.0% Clinton
Riverton-Boulevard Park: 52.7% Clinton
Trilogy at Redmond Ridge: 81.4% Clinton
Union Hill-Novelty Hill: 60.1% Clinton

Vashon: 51.0% Sanders
White Center: 53.6% Clinton

In Seattle, the only Sanders neighborhoods are University of Washington (78.6%), Little Brook (65.5%), Sand Point (64.7%), Interbay (63.5%), North Delridge (58.9%), University District (56.5%), South Delridge (55.6%), South Park (53.4%), Roxhill (52.1%), Fremont (51.8%), Broadway (51.4%), Greenwood (51.3%), and a tie at Riverview (50.0%).  The other 84 neighborhoods voted Clinton -- even urban Capitol Hill as a whole.

Top Clinton neighborhoods were Washington Park (79.6%), Inverness (76.7%), Laurelhurst (76.6%), Madison Park (75.8%),

On the R side, not a ton to report -- Trump landslides pretty much everywhere, with the predictable Kasich voting in tony precincts (Washington Park was "only" 56%-41% Trump.)
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #218 on: May 27, 2016, 07:19:28 PM »

DEM:

Clinton 411741 52.4%
Sanders 374044 47.6%

So the margin shrinks from 5.16% to 4.8%


GOP:

TRUMP 444968 75.44%
Cruz 63712 10.8%
Kasich 57481 9.81%
Carson 23281 3.95%

These are the final numbers for today. There are still 12,172 ballots left to count; those will be counted between May 31st and June 7th.

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #219 on: May 27, 2016, 11:07:08 PM »

Just for reference, Obama won the 2008 beauty contest 354,000 to 316,000, right now Hillary is up 412,000 to 374,000.  King seems to be the dominant difference in both the result and increased turnout as Obama won 100,000 to 76,000 while Hillary won 158,000 to 117,000 (with a couple of thousand votes left).  Why the big increase in turnout and vote for Hillary vs 2008?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #220 on: May 28, 2016, 12:08:39 AM »

So, 0 chance of Sanders closing the gap, right?
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Crumpets
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« Reply #221 on: May 28, 2016, 12:30:00 AM »

AAAHHHH! My precinct voted for Sanders by one vote!
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #222 on: May 28, 2016, 12:35:36 AM »

So, 0 chance of Sanders closing the gap, right?

It's mathematically impossible, unless you live in r/sanders land.
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« Reply #223 on: May 28, 2016, 06:32:56 AM »

Well, Sanders won the contest in Washington that mattered. That's all I care about. These beauty contest don't mean anything beyond bragging rights. It wouldn't have mattered if Clinton won 65-35 or Sanders won 80-20.
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« Reply #224 on: May 28, 2016, 10:58:20 AM »

That's true. But for all the talk about no one caring about this election, there's already almost 1.4 million votes cast with more to count, which is a record for Washington's beauty contest and is about the average turnout in the state's blanket primaries.
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