Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

Just for reference, Obama won the 2008 beauty contest 354,000 to 316,000, right now Hillary is up 412,000 to 374,000.  King seems to be the dominant difference in both the result and increased turnout as Obama won 100,000 to 76,000 while Hillary won 158,000 to 117,000 (with a couple of thousand votes left).  Why the big increase in turnout and vote for Hillary vs 2008?

Well, this definitely raises some interesting and broader questions, and also shows the different demographic coalitions between the '08 and '16 Dem primaries. Although it doesn't totally surprise me that Hillary won King County, the apparent margin of victory here is much larger than one might expect.

1.) Electoral Composition- Overall turnout level appears at <40% compared to ~70% in Oregon, and so skewed older, wealthier, and "traditional" Democratic demographics, all populations where Clinton has outperformed her 2008 numbers throughout the primary season.
2.) Metro trends- The largest swings towards Hillary in the PacNW between '08 and '16 basically occurred within the two respective Metro areas in Oregon and Washington (Portland, and Seattle-Tacoma). For example, Hillary received only 30% of the vote in Multnomah County, Oregon in '08 but 41% in '16. King County, Washington Hillary received 42% in '08 and a whopping 57% in '16, so an even greater swing likely due partially to the electoral composition, dramatic improvement in her performance among African-Americans, and apparently also apparently significant improvement over her '08 numbers among Jewish and Asian-Americans, where there are significant population in Seattle and King County overall, although I haven't dug into the '08 precinct data.
3.) Non-Metro trends- Hillary actually had a virtual collapse of support among small town and rural-Democrats between '08 and '16 that was most pronounced in blue-collar areas including many New Deal Democratic strongholds that have been trending Republican since Bill Clinton and the DLC shifted the party towards Free Trade in the '90s. In fact, Hillary had over half of Washington counties, trend against her in 2016, including heavily in SW Washington, and much of Eastern and NE Washington state.
4.) Several other factors that may or may not contribute to the 2008 vs 2016 Washington State Dem primary swings. Election timing (2008 primary held only 2 weeks after caucuses so higher "insurgent candidate" enthusiasm. Oregon Media markets- TV markets in SW Washington covering the late May primary. Establishment support- Obama endorsed by Dem Governor in '08. No major Bernie Dem Party endorsements in WA State.

So what could explain the extent of the Clinton swing in King County?

1.) The Iraq war was the major contrast between the two candidates in the 2008 primary in the PacNW, and was particularly concentrated in Metro Seattle and Portland. I believe was the major factor in uniting the urban liberal base of the party with Democratic leaning "independent" voters, and possibly somewhat of an opposite effect in "downstate" parts of the region.
2.) The 2016 contrast is much more diffuse, but it is focused more on economic themes, "establishment politics", and how far and how fast to move forward on economic justice that play differently within different segments of the Democratic Base. Higher income Democrats are less receptive to Bernie's message, and it does appear that the greatest Hillary swing in the NW are in areas with the highest county incomes, including four counties in Puget Sound (King, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap) accounting for a chunk of the Hillary swing in King.
3.) Free Trade- Although this is an issue where Hillary's position has shifted dramatically over the primary season, and probably helped Bernie in many parts of Washington and Oregon state, I think this could have cost him some points in King County, and likely Pierce as well, where there are a large number of jobs tied to the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma, as well as export-related jobs in general. Bernie going after Boeing was probably huge as well, with 82,000 current jobs in Washington State, as well as an ever larger number of retirees, and likely cost him dearly among many King County voters.

[DINGO Joe]

Thanks for the info, NOVA

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for the info, NOVA

Hey--- could be totally off-base, but been tracking the '08 and '16 Dem numbers using '08 as the baseline, and King County does stand out as a major outlier, even when compared to similar although lesser swings in the three Metro-Portland counties since it went from one of her worst counties in Washington State to one of her best.

Now all that being said, I am convinced that if Washington State had moved to a March Primary only, as the State Republican Party and many Washington Democrats were urging to give the Pac-NW an "early vote" in the primary season, and even if it were a closed primary a-la-Oregon, that Bernie would have won, albeit with a much lower delegate haul and probably closer to a 54-46 Bernie margin, or basically an 8-10 point Bernie win significantly lower than the Oregon primary results.

All being said, I totally support Washington State moving towards a Democratic Primary earlier in the calendar, where a more liberal voice can be heard within the party on social, economic, and foreign policy issues, and essentially can play a major role representing the voice of West Coast Democrats that alone represent a solid block of 77 electoral votes, and although we have a few representations of the Mountain West in the form of the Nevada and Colorado caucuses, basically the Democratic Party nomination for the past 24 years has been decided early on in the South, with the MidWest and Northeast as an afterthought....

# WestCoastDemocrats

[Eraserhead]

It's weird how even the AP doesn't bother to update the vote count.

[IceSpear]

It's weird how even the AP doesn't bother to update the vote count.

All the news organizations stop updating the vote totals the day after the election. It's annoying.

[jimrtex]

IIRC Washington tried to switch to a primary and the DNC were the ones who got in the way - hence the beauty contest.

The Washington presidential primary was created by the initiative. At the time, Washington was still voting mostly in person. Washington voters DO NOT like having to publicly reveal their partisan affiliation. But the national parties require it. With a separate presidential primary, voters could grudgingly ask for a party ballot.

Under vote by mail, voters must complete a party affiliation form when they return their presidential ballot. They don't have to do that for other elections. One reason turnout was low is that voters did not want to complete that form, particularly as they saw the contests already having been decided.

In 2004 and 2012 the presidential primary was suspended. And in other years, the Washington Democratic Party ignored the results. So voters had another reason not to participate - not only did they have to sign a form, the Democratic party would still go ahead and dump the ballots in Puget Sound.

In 2015, the odd couple, SOS Kim Wyman and Senator Pam Roach, proposed a bill that would change the primary to March, and require at least one delegate be chosen based on the primary results. If both parties agreed, then party affiliation would be required, and both parties could even devise their own affiliation form. If both parties did not agree to binding, then the presidential primary would be a pure beauty contest with no party affiliation required.

The bill passed the Republican-controlled senate, but hung up in the Democratic-controlled House. At the committee hearing, a couple of Democratic Party officials testified (they appeared to either be longshoremen or from the teacher's union). They claimed that caucuses were more representative of the party workers, and besides the DNC wouldn't let them split their allocation of delegates between the caucuses and primary.

IOW, the DNC won't let us do what we don't want do.

The current presidential primary permits the primary date to be changed. But it has to be approved by a committee composed of the SOS, 2 legislators from each party, and 2 party officials from each party. Any change requires supermajority approval.

SOS Wyman and the Republicans voted yes to a March date.  The Democrats voted nyet, so the primary date remained in May.

[jimrtex]

IIRC Washington tried to switch to a primary and the DNC werected the ones who got in the way - hence the beauty contest.

I thought that Washington Republicans pushed for a March primary for both sides and the Dem SoS opposed it for some reason to the point that Op-Eds in major newspapers in Washington State were calling to voters to vote just to send a message to the SoS so that Washington State could actually be the first West Coast state and largest Western state to have a primary where we could actually have a voice in national elections, where usually the West Coast is last to vote?

The SOS in Washington is a Republican and was pushing for a March primary.

The Washington Democratic Party apparatchiks opposed it.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There will be updates to the vote count today, beginning at 4 pm est and ending at 8 pm est.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More votes came in today and yesterday, but the margin stayed at 4.8%. Counting continues through June 7th.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final results for this week:

Clinton 417436 52.4%
Sanders 379194 47.6%

TRUMP 450178 75.45%
Cruz 64436 10.8%
Kasich 58972 9.8%
Carson 23542 3.95%

Counting continues on June 6th and 7th.

[ElectionsGuy]

Final results for this week:

Clinton 417436 52.4%
Sanders 379194 47.6%

TRUMP 450178 75.45%
Cruz 64436 10.8%
Kasich 58972 9.8%
Carson 23542 3.95%

Counting continues on June 6th and 7th.

This is such a joke.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final results for this week:

Clinton 417436 52.4%
Sanders 379194 47.6%

TRUMP 450178 75.45%
Cruz 64436 10.8%
Kasich 58972 9.8%
Carson 23542 3.95%

Counting continues on June 6th and 7th.

This is such a joke.

Yeah, it's particularly hilarious because the last votes should come through just as New Jersey is closing its polls. Get done counting one primary, immediately start counting the next.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today's votes narrowed the margin from 4.8% to 4.78%.

Clinton 418851 52.39%
Sanders 380654  47.61%

TRUMP 452401 75.45%
Cruz 64795 10.81%
Kasich 58705 9.79%
Carson 23670 3.95%

The final 2,423 votes will be counted tomorrow.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL NUMBERS:

Clinton 420461 52.38%
Sanders 382293 47.62%

Trump 445023 75.46%
Cruz 65172 10.81%
Kasich 58954 9.78%
Carson 28349 3.96%