Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)

[Alcon]

FYI: The votes will start being reported at 8 PM local time, but Washington (unlike Oregon) requires the ballot be postmarked by today, not necessarily received.  It's conceivable some valid votes from overseas won't come in for over a week.  Most counties do only one report on Election Night, released sometime between about 8:10 and 8:45.  Depending on last-minute turnout, around 60% of votes are usually counted on Election Night.  In this election, which early indicators suggest might have a lower-than-average proportion of last-minute ballots, that figure could be a bit higher.

True but I don't see King or Pierce counties giving Trump over 60%.

Pierce County is the odds-on favorite to be Trump's best county in the urban Puget Sound.  It's not an upscale place, and even many of its higher-income Republican areas aren't college-educated.  I expect Snohomish to be more trouble for him.

[Alcon]

If Hillary wins this, it proves conclusively beyond a shadow of a doubt that she was robbed by a deeply undemocratic caucus system

Or that she wins with low turnout inconsequential elections?

Washington 2008 Democratic caucus turnout: 246,000
Washington 2008 Democratic beauty contest primary turnout: 700,000

A primary that did absolutely nothing had 285% of the turnout of the most-attended caucus in state history.  That will happen again this year.

[Alcon]

If Hillary wins this, it proves conclusively beyond a shadow of a doubt that she was robbed by a deeply undemocratic caucus system

Or that she wins with low turnout inconsequential elections?

Washington 2008 Democratic caucus turnout: 246,000
Washington 2008 Democratic beauty contest primary turnout: 700,000

A primary that did absolutely nothing had 285% of the turnout of the most-attended caucus in state history.  That will happen again this year.

Where's that data from? I thought WA only release caucus votes?

They don't release individual vote counts, but they do count how many people signed in.

I think the main reason is logistical.  When people caucus, each precinct has a leader (most of whom weren't trained beforehand) who does the paperwork.  They then stuff it in a too-small Manila envelope.  You can imagine how much of mess that is.  Pulling and storing the individual vote totals would just add to an already chaotic, stressful process, so I think they don't bother. 

But the sign-ins should be a reliable estimate of turnout.

[Alcon]

My (somewhat) naïve prior would be that Trump should do best in counties like Pacific, Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, and maybe Kitsap. I could also see Trump doing well in the Ferry/Stevens/Pend Oreille trio and Skamania/Klickitat, though I could just as easily see Cruz doing relatively well there. Kasich should do his best in King, Island, Jefferson, Thurston, Whitman, San Juan, Snohomish, etc. Spokane, Whatcom County, the Tri-Cities, and Vancouver seem relatively Cruz-friendly, though Kasich did fairly well in the Portland area.

I think that's super reasonable all-around.  I'm not sure about Trump doing amazingly in Pierce and Kitsap, just because they're higher than average in income and education.  But I think he'll do fine, since neither county has enough upscale Republicans to be that fertile for Kasich (especially since so many of Kitsap's rich people are Dems).

bgwah and I came to the same conclusion about Skamania/Klickitat (especially Skamania) and Ferry/Stevens/Pend Oreille.  They're both weird anti-establishment areas, although with different flavors.  It was hilarious to see how well GMO labeling did in some super right-wing areas in the northeast, for instance.  I feel like they will probably be among Trump's best, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were Cruz's best area either.  They're just weird.

I also agree with you on your Cruz picks.  Clark could be good for Trump, but I think there's a big population of upscale religious conservatives there.  Same with the Tri-Cities.  I think a dark horse possibility is Whatcom.  Rally aside, Lynden should be a natural area for Cruz.  I expect Kasich could do well around Lake Whatcom and Chuckanut.  Still, there's plenty of working-class white areas to counteract that.  It's also possible Cruz could do well in those one-town-where-everyone-knows-each-other counties (Columbia, Garfield).

On the Dem side, I'm going to freely admit that I'm a lot more uncertain.  I wouldn't be surprised if it was Oregon-like, with Sanders winning nearly everywhere but landsliding in few places.

[Alcon]

So far, of the populous places (100+ votes) with precinct results (doesn't include King County and many others), the best showings are:

Trump - Moxee, 89.2%
Subdivision boomtown in the middle of Mexican farming country

Kasich - Bainbridge Island, 27.8%
Wealthy, educated Seattle commuter suburb

Cruz - Sumas, 18.2% (DuPont close behind)
Farming town in the middle of Dutch Calvinist country.  DuPont is a commuter suburb of Olympia and Tacoma.

Carson - College Place, 12.8%
Seventh Day Adventist college town.

[Low for Trump was DuPont, 60.8%...kind of odd.]

Sanders - Everson, 66.7% [Close behind: Cheney @ 64.9%]
Everson is a farming town in Dutch Calvinist country...yeah, no idea there.  Cheney is Eastern Washington University.  Bellingham [Western Washington University] wasn't far behind.

Clinton - Woodway, 72.9%
Wealthy bedroom community of Seattle.

Fun fact: The Air Force doesn't seem to like Trump much.  He lost both McChord AFB (in Pierce County) and Fairchild AFB (in Spokane County) to Cruz.  These are the only precincts of any actual size Trump lost so far.

[Alcon]

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

[Alcon]

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly win when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

I think you and I have different understandings of the word crazy.

I don't get it.  Am I paying too much attention to election results on the election results forum?

[Alcon]

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

Late ballots tend to be more Democratic, often driven by King County.  They've been slightly more D so far.  Yakima is an outlier, though.  I guess the Latino vote came in late, although it's interesting that Sanders is also winning the late vote, since Clinton is at 56% in heavily Latino precincts.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the Air Force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

[Alcon]

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the air force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

Where are you guys finding precinct-specific data?

The Secretary of State web site has a little "Precinct Results" link at the bottom for about half the counties.  King releases their Election Night precinct results tomorrow afternoon.

See: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/clark/

[Alcon]

King county has reported now, similar margin as before 57.44-42.56 in King, and 52.74-47.26 overall. 

So basically "Wave Two" only 51-49 Bernie with an additional ~25k ballots, and only an estimated 7k total ballots to be counted?

If these estimated ballot numbers are close to the truth, looks like King County might have one of the lowest turnout rates in the state...

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/ballotreturnstats/default.aspx

398,109 received

384,985 ready for counting (the received-but-not-ready ballots are probably overwhelmingly challenged for missing/wrong signature, etc.)

378,909 ballots counted

= 6,076 ready to go but not counted, plus whatever arrived today, plus any signature resolutions

= probably around 31.5% turnout at best

So, yes, poor turnout in King County.  It's rare to see turnout in King County about as low as turnout in Pierce County (Tacoma).

[Alcon]

So Alcon, what precincts do we need to look at in Seattle to have an idea of the Asian-American vote in the West Coast?

This obviously has huge implications for the Dem Primary vote in Cali in particular, where Asian-Americans are the 3rd largest ethnic group with relatively high overall voter turnout rates, and encompass over 25% of the vote in (3-5) counties in the Bay Area alone.

Seattle in particular has both Chinese and Filipino American populations, similar to SF and East Bay, as well as a large Vietnamese population which is especially significant in South Bay.

I ran some precinct numbers for the most heavily Asian-American precincts in Metro Houston ( Sugarland and Texas HD-149) and it looked like Hillary won by 30-40% in areas with a 40% Asian-American population.

Still, some significant differences in the primary calendar, countries of origin, disposable household income, and occupational sectors, make this extremely suspect with West Coast demographics.

So here is a 2010 Census Tract Map of Seattle by % of Asian-American population. Are there any key precincts or indicators of support for candidates in the 2016 Primary?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=15248

I just downloaded the King County ballot returns and ran them against a program that estimates ethnicity based on name, location, and some other demographic information.  It's not perfect, since some Asians have 'white' names, and I can't imagine it handles Filipinos with Spanish names perfectly, but it's pretty solid.

There don't appear to have been any majority-Asian precincts, but here's five with more Asian voters than white voters (most also have significant black populations, although all are more white than black):

Sea 37-1622 (48.4%)
Sea 37-3567 (41.7%)
Sea 37-1825 (40.9%)
Sea 37-1640 (40.0%)
Sea 37-3666 (38.7%)

Most of the precincts are in the southern portion of the Beacon Hill neighborhood, plus one in the International District.

There are some Asian voters in Snohomish County as well, but I don't have a list of credited voters there, and they're less concentrated.  I think Seattle is really going to be the only useful metric.

[Alcon]

King County results.  This has tightened some since Election Night, but not by that much.

Algona: 53.1% Sanders
Auburn: 56.1% Clinton
Beaux Arts Village: 70.0% Clinton
Bellevue: 64.5% Clinton
Black Diamond: 60.0% Clinton
Burien: 57.5% Clinton
Clyde Hill: 76.7% Clinton
Covington: 53.1% Clinton
Des Moines: 61.0% Clinton
Duvall: 50.4% Clinton
Enumclaw: 56.1% Clinton
Federal Way: 60.2% Clinton
Hunts Point: 91.9% Clinton
Issaquah: 61.1% Clinton
Kenmore: 58.3% Clinton
Kent: 59.0% Clinton
Kirkland: 60.3% Clinton
Lake Forest Park: 59.6% Clinton
Maple Valley: 53.6% Clinton
Medina: 76.2% Clinton
Mercer Island: 74.1% Clinton
Milton: 54.4% Clinton
Newcastle: 63.5% Clinton
Normandy Park: 60.8% Clinton
North Bend: 54.9% Clinton
Pacific: 53.5% Clinton
Redmond: 57.5% Clinton
Renton: 58.9% Clinton
Sammamish: 63.8% Clinton
SeaTac: 58.0% Clinton
Seattle: 58.2% Clinton
Skykomish: 71.4% Sanders
Snoqualmie: 56.6% Clinton
Tukwila: 57.3% Clinton
Woodinville: 60.5% Clinton
Yarrow Point: 77.9% Clinton

Bryn Mawr-Skyway: 62.0% Clinton
Cascade-Fairwood: 57.7% Clinton
Cottage Lake: 59.9% Clinton
East Hill-Meridian: 56.6% Clinton
East Renton Highlands: 55.7% Clinton
Fall City: 52.0% Sanders
Lake Marcel-Stillwater: 53.2% Sanders
Lakeland North: 59.6% Clinton
Lakeland South: 56.4% Clinton
Maple Heights-Lake Desire: 55.9% Clinton
Mirrormont: 59.3% Clinton
Redmond Ridge: 63.0% Clinton
Riverton-Boulevard Park: 52.7% Clinton
Trilogy at Redmond Ridge: 81.4% Clinton
Union Hill-Novelty Hill: 60.1% Clinton
Vashon: 51.0% Sanders
White Center: 53.6% Clinton

In Seattle, the only Sanders neighborhoods are University of Washington (78.6%), Little Brook (65.5%), Sand Point (64.7%), Interbay (63.5%), North Delridge (58.9%), University District (56.5%), South Delridge (55.6%), South Park (53.4%), Roxhill (52.1%), Fremont (51.8%), Broadway (51.4%), Greenwood (51.3%), and a tie at Riverview (50.0%).  The other 84 neighborhoods voted Clinton -- even urban Capitol Hill as a whole.

Top Clinton neighborhoods were Washington Park (79.6%), Inverness (76.7%), Laurelhurst (76.6%), Madison Park (75.8%),

On the R side, not a ton to report -- Trump landslides pretty much everywhere, with the predictable Kasich voting in tony precincts (Washington Park was "only" 56%-41% Trump.)