Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)

[Crumpets]

The people voting in beauty contest primaries are voting not for the beauty contest but to vote in other local primary races.  We all know, unfortunately, the younger Sanders crowd is less likely to vote in those races and are therefore underrepresented despite the turnout being higher.

AFAIK, there aren't any local primary races today. Given the nature of how the ballot is set up, I don't see how there could be any.

Ah, that's right.  That wasn't the case in Nebraska, and I maintain that 1) what I said is generally correct for beauty contests and 2) the sample is still obviously unrepresentative and though bigger undersamples sanders supporters

I don't think that many regular people necessarily know or care that it's a only beauty contest. They just get the ballot in the mail, so they vote.

The people who get the ballot in the mail are disproportionately likely to be Clinton supporters

Lol.  The entire state votes by mail.

So every single adult washington state resident regardless of party registration gets sent one ballot to their home address giving them an option to vote democrat or republican and mail it back in?

Every registered voter gets sent a ballot, yes.  There is no party registration.*

*When I registered in 08 you could write in a party if you wanted to do so, so I put 'Democratic party.'  But when you receive the primary ballot, you declare then and there whether you are voting in the Dem or GOP primary.

You have to be a registered voter to get sent a ballot without requesting one, though right?, and 80% of Washington state's voters are registered (which btw is pretty impressive), which would favor Hillary, unlike the caucus-system, which has same day registration.

Also, the people likely to be living at their permanent address where the ballot would get sent are more likely to be Hillary supporters.

Not to mention the lack of advertising Sanders did for this and the relative lack of political experience/awareness/regularity of commitment of his young supporters.

Yes. They send you a ballot with your name on the envelope based on the voter registration records. You then sign the ballot which they match against the signature you submit when you register. And I know from experience that they're system is pretty tight. I've had to resubmit a signature because my sloppy signature on the ballot wasn't close enough to the one I submitted when I was 18.

[Crumpets]

If there was actually campaigning before this fake primary sure, but there wasn't, so this means nothing.

Good to know we can't make up our minds without incessant ads on the TV, or that we can't trust people to vote as they voted in the caucus just two months ago...

[Crumpets]

Clinton projected to win the fake primary.

Source?

[Crumpets]

Fun fact: Ben Carson came in second in SDA-theocracy College Place.

Do you have precinct data somewhere?

[Crumpets]

IIRC Washington tried to switch to a primary and the DNC were the ones who got in the way - hence the beauty contest.

[Crumpets]

Yakima county reported a few more votes; Margin shrinks from 5.9% to 5.84%. The more important  dumps of votes will start coming in an hour or so.

That was a pretty crazy vote dump too -- it was 58% Democratic compared to 63% Republican on Election Night, and Sanders narrowly won when Clinton got 55% on Election Night.

The "Second Wave" swing doesn't surprise me, since we saw the same think with vote-by-mail in Oregon, presumably since ballots are basically counted closer to the order received.

The "estimated ballots remaining" numbers on the SoS website are interesting too, since there were 3,000 total estimated outstanding and 2,866 additional Dem votes were added, so yeah maybe Dems vote later than Reps in Eastern Washington?

BTW: Do you have the precinct #s for JBLM (Fort Lewis-McChord)? I have only four precincts identified by navigating the maps on the SoS website makes it almost impossible to identify, but of those four Bernie is winning the military vote and am interested in the base trendlines and what it might mean for larger base areas in Cali.

JBLM is 28-574, 28-578, and 28-579 (Fort Lewis) plus 28-580 (McChord AFB).  It's voting 69% Sanders and 49%-35% Trump.

Overall, Sanders is getting 69% in military precincts across the state and Trump is winning over Cruz, 53%-33%.  (Cruz is winning the air force vote and Trump isn't doing that amazing on the other bases, either.)

Where are you guys finding precinct-specific data?

[Crumpets]

AAAHHHH! My precinct voted for Sanders by one vote!