Washington Primary results thread (both parties; “polls close” at 11pm ET)

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Damn, Bernie might actually lose this unless the late votes come in really strong for him like they did in Oregon.

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Also why did she do better in Washington's primary than Oregon's?

Oregon was actually contested. Both campaigns paid literally zero attention to this since it's meaningless in term of delegates.

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Final results for today (their will be more updates at various times in the coming days)

Republican
Donald J. Trump 76.22%
Ted Cruz 10.12%
John R. Kasich 9.85%
Ben Carson 3.81%

Democrat
Hillary Clinton 53.63%
Bernie Sanders 46.37%

Voter turnout so far is 28.37%, with an estimated 96,200 ballots on hand that need to be counted.
Here is a schedule per county when the next updates will take place http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Turnout.html

28.37% turnout is pretty awful.

Compare it to turnout in Oregon.

http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/index.html

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Final results for today (their will be more updates at various times in the coming days)

Republican
Donald J. Trump 76.22%
Ted Cruz 10.12%
John R. Kasich 9.85%
Ben Carson 3.81%

Democrat
Hillary Clinton 53.63%
Bernie Sanders 46.37%

Voter turnout so far is 28.37%, with an estimated 96,200 ballots on hand that need to be counted.
Here is a schedule per county when the next updates will take place http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Turnout.html

28.37% turnout is pretty awful.

Compare it to turnout in Oregon.

http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/index.html

You really can't make that comparison. The Republican race in OR was contested when some of the ballots were mailed. The Democrat contest mattered.

In WA, the Republican race is over and the Democrats just have a meaningless beauty contest.

I understand that but I'm just trying to point it out to people who think an actual primary would have similar results on the Democratic side.

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Or maybe some Bernie supporters who have seen the writing on the wall and are ready to unite turned out to send a signal to their delusional candidate that the primary is over and that they are ready for her to begin her attacks on Trump.

lol, why'd he win Oregon big and nearly tie her in Kentucky then?

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The takeaway point is that if every state held a beauty contest primary after the actual contest, Clinton would likely win every one except Vermont, and maybe New Hampshire. I'll admit that Clinton supporters are, on the whole, more reliable voters, and these elections are mainly the most reliable voters (who skew older and more affluent) who are participating. I'd also add that while mail-in voting is great in that it allows a portion of the electorate for whom traveling to a polling booth is difficult or impossible, to participate to a greater degree, it's not great for everyone. Voters who change their address fairly regularly (who skew younger and less affluent) have a much more difficult time voting in these elections, and probably don't think it's worth the effort in a "contest" like this one.

Obama won both the caucuses and the primaries of Nebraska and Washington.
Didn't his supporters also skew younger? Didn't they know that the primaries were beauty contests?   

He just barely won them, despite winning the caucuses by a wide margin. I think the age gap is even wider this time around.

Winning by 5 points isn't "barely" winning. 

It's certainly a huge difference from a 36-point win.

But not bigger than that between a 43-point win and an 8-point loss.

I doubt it'll be 8 points by the time they finish counting the votes.

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Or maybe some Bernie supporters who have seen the writing on the wall and are ready to unite turned out to send a signal to their delusional candidate that the primary is over and that they are ready for her to begin her attacks on Trump.

lol, why'd he win Oregon big and nearly tie her in Kentucky then?

Same reason why Hillary won KY and WV decisively in 2008 when it was clear that Obama would be the nominee - demographics.

Okay but what does that have to do with whether his supporters are rallying around Hillary or not? If they were really rallying around her, she should have won closed primaries in Oregon and Kentucky easily. She won this because nobody was really paying attention to it except for olds.

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The takeaway point is that if every state held a beauty contest primary after the actual contest, Clinton would likely win every one except Vermont, and maybe New Hampshire. I'll admit that Clinton supporters are, on the whole, more reliable voters, and these elections are mainly the most reliable voters (who skew older and more affluent) who are participating. I'd also add that while mail-in voting is great in that it allows a portion of the electorate for whom traveling to a polling booth is difficult or impossible, to participate to a greater degree, it's not great for everyone. Voters who change their address fairly regularly (who skew younger and less affluent) have a much more difficult time voting in these elections, and probably don't think it's worth the effort in a "contest" like this one.

Obama won both the caucuses and the primaries of Nebraska and Washington.
Didn't his supporters also skew younger? Didn't they know that the primaries were beauty contests?    

He just barely won them, despite winning the caucuses by a wide margin. I think the age gap is even wider this time around.

Winning by 5 points isn't "barely" winning.  

It's certainly a huge difference from a 36-point win.

But not bigger than that between a 43-point win and an 8-point loss.

I doubt it'll be 8 points by the time they finish counting the votes.

Because if it will be 5 or 6 it will refute my argument.

I'm not really even sure what you're trying to argue. I just felt that was worth noting.

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I'm not really even sure what you're trying to argue. I just felt that was worth noting.

I'm arguing that such a huge discrepancy between caucus and primary results shows clearly how undemocratic and unrepresentative of the will of the people caucuses are and that Washington obviously wasn't the slam-dunk Sanders state that everyone believed.

Still we won't know how big the discrepancy really is without seeing results from a state that has a caucus and a primary that both mean something and are contested by both (or all of) the campaigns running at that time.

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It looks like this could end up being pretty damn close. I'm wondering if they maybe jumped the gun a little on calling it.

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Looking at the map...I don't understand how Sanders could be so relatively close to Clinton and yet have a map with the percentages in each county that exist. If I didn't know the statewide figures and looked at that map, I would have thought Clinton won by 12 points or more. King County was over one-third of the vote, nearly 60% Clinton and was Clinton's best county in the state.

It all has to do with election night returns 49-51 Clinton if we remove King County and appears to be 50-50 as of "First Wave" mail in ballot returns and will likely change even more dramatically tomorrow.

Of the 60k ballots counted today in Washington, results are 55-45 Bernie.

There are an estimated 111k "ballots on hand" to be counted and approximately 41% are from King County, and likely we will see a significant drop in the Hillary percentage in King County with "Wave Two" ballots that will probably trend closer to the "Wave One" of the late vote.

Note that King County basically has one of LOWEST reported voter turnout rates at 27.6% only higher than Snomomish, Whitman, and Yakima county.

What this tells me is this, based upon similar patterns of vote-by-mail returns in Metro-Portland, is that there are a large number of votes yet to be counted in King and Snohomish counties, and the county election offices are focused on day-to-day business while they move through the slow process of counting ballots in what is essentially a meaningless election on both the Republican and Democratic sides of the house.

I love vote-by-mail, but unfortunately it makes it extremely frustrating trying to actually get final votes in contests where there is no political impact nor urgency to finalize the vote counting.

Edit: Saw the other responses after writing this. I do not see Bernie winning this considering what appear to be the overall turnout levels BUT, there is a similar trend that we will see in Washington state regarding extremely poor performance in small-town and rural parts of the state, even though King County will essentially give her the win in the low-turnout beauty contest, combined with a few heavily Latino counties in Eastern Washington that I predicted before, and likely a HOLD in Pierce county and Snohomish flip.

Key question is where final King/Pierce/Snohomish numbers end up, honestly I have no idea what the next few days numbers from those counties will show, based upon Metro-Portland numbers where we saw two counties flip from Hillary to Bernie within 48 hours and Multnomah county go from a 10 point to a 20 point lead within 4 days.

Vote by Mail has its downsides...

Yeah, it's definitely worth keeping an eye on at least.

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When are we supposed to get the next vote dump?

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Around 7 PM eastern tonight

Cool, thanks.

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52.58% - 47.42% now.

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52.4 - 47.6 now.

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It's weird how even the AP doesn't bother to update the vote count.