NC-PPP: Tie! Tie! Tie!

[MT Treasurer]

Governor

Pat McCrory (R, inc.): 41%
Roy Cooper (D): 41%
Lon Cecil (L): 5%

Lieutenant Governor

Dan Forest (R, inc.): 38%
Linda Coleman (D): 38%
J.J. Summerell (L): 5%

Attorney General

Josh Stein (D): 39%
Buck Newton (R): 38%

Treasurer

Dale Folwell (R): 39%
Dan Blue III (D): 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/hb2-continues-to-have-little-support-from-north-carolinians.html

[windjammer]

Lol Lol lol.

Describe a voter voting for the dems for the governor race, for the rep for the lt governor race, and for the dems for the attorney and treasurer races:

Simply, THEY DON'T EXIST!!!!

[hurricanehink]

Lol Lol lol.

Describe a voter voting for the dems for the governor race, for the rep for the lt governor race, and for the dems for the attorney and treasurer races:

Simply, THEY DON'T EXIST!!!!

Mysogynist democrat who doesn't want a female Lt. Governor? As silly as that sounds, there may be a few? Hah

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

#KillAllYouths

Seriously, the Braindead generation. Sad!

[Vosem]

Lol Lol lol.

Describe a voter voting for the dems for the governor race, for the rep for the lt governor race, and for the dems for the attorney and treasurer races:

Simply, THEY DON'T EXIST!!!!

Some voters might have irregular patterns of undervoting. Some will cast votes for the opposite party if the candidate is from their hometown, or agrees with them on a certain issue. Some, for unfamiliar races, will vote based on what name sounds more trustworthy. Some, for unfamiliar races, will vote for whichever name is ranked first on the ballot.

Sum all these effects up, and while the pattern you describe is unlikely for any individual voter, it may be a very possible result in the aggregate.

[Sorenroy]

Seriously, the Braindead generation. Sad!

I really, really hope you're joking Mr. Pennsylvania. If not, what is it about our good current Gubin that you like so much?

Race:
White — McCrory leads Cooper by 18 points (50-32), 73% of the electorate.
African American — Cooper leads McCrory by 58 points (70-12), 21% of the electorate.
Other — McCrory leads Cooper by 1 point (42-41), 6% of the electorate.

Gender:
Female — Cooper leads McCrory by 11 points (45-34), 54% of the electorate.
Male — McCrory leads Cooper by 14 points (50-36), 46% of the electorate.

Age:
18 to 29 — Cooper leads McCrory by 40 points (56-16), 12% of the electorate.
30 to 45 — McCrory leads Cooper by 11 points (44-33), 26% of the electorate.
45 to 65 — McCrory leads Cooper by 3 points (45-42), 42% of the electorate.
Older than 65 — McCrory leads Cooper by 9 points (47-38), 20% of the electorate.

Edit: almost forgot area codes!



252 — Cooper leads McCrory by 7 points (48-41), 10% of the electorate.
336 — McCrory leads Cooper by 22 points (52-30), 23% of the electorate.
704 — Cooper leads McCrory by 5 points (43-38), 20% of the electorate.
828 — McCrory leads Cooper by 27 points (55-28), 13% of the electorate.
910 — Cooper leads McCrory by 8 points (40-32), 16% of the electorate.
919 — Cooper leads McCrory by 27 points (57-30), 18% of the electorate.

[mds32]

The sample is too Democratic, it has Obama and Romney tied 46-46 when Romney won 50-48. Wonder what would happen if the sample went to 50-48.

[YPestis25]

The sample is too Democratic, it has Obama and Romney tied 46-46 when Romney won 50-48. Wonder what would happen if the sample went to 50-48.

Voters are more likely to say they voted for the winner when polled about it later, so I don't think we should put too much weight into that.

[Heisenberg]

I've been waiting for this poll to come out. All four races are in dead heat (I'm sure the AG race is still within the MoE). Can't see too much ticket-splitting. These races should remain very close. I think George Holding would've been a very strong Republican AG candidate. Had the mid-decade redistricting happened earlier than February, I think he would've gone for it. Nice to see the area code results, too. I know that 828 and 336 are the most conservative parts of NC, 704 is swingy but slightly Dem-leaning, 919 is very liberal/Democratic (research triangle, plus the Black belt cuts through), and 252 (Butterfield (D) and Jones (R) districts) is rural, but heavily African-American.
Also, can someone explain the Democratic tilt of 910? That area is mostly in the Rouzer and Hudson districts (both Republican, Cook PVI of R+11/12). Are there a lot of Blue Dogs/Republican presidential/congressional voters who still vote Democrat in downballot races? Or a lot of undecideds? However, I also remember MacIntyre (a Blue Dog Dem) narrowly won reelection in 2012 in the newly gerrymandered district (and retired after that term). So maybe those districts are far less Republican than their PVI would suggest at the downballot level (a la OH-06).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Seriously, the Braindead generation. Sad!

I really, really hope you're joking Mr. Pennsylvania. If not, what is it about our good current Gubin that you like so much

I have not endorsed in this race yet - I view both unfavorably. I'm just saying that young people continue to be idiots with this choice just like they are everywhere else. There is no reason for such a margin.

[Heisenberg]

I've been waiting for this poll to come out. All four races are in dead heat (I'm sure the AG race is still within the MoE). Can't see too much ticket-splitting. These races should remain very close. I think George Holding would've been a very strong Republican AG candidate. Had the mid-decade redistricting happened earlier than February, I think he would've gone for it. Nice to see the area code results, too. I know that 828 and 336 are the most conservative parts of NC, 704 is swingy but slightly Dem-leaning, 919 is very liberal/Democratic (research triangle, plus the Black belt cuts through), and 252 (Butterfield (D) and Jones (R) districts) is rural, but heavily African-American.
Also, can someone explain the Democratic tilt of 910? That area is mostly in the Rouzer and Hudson districts (both Republican, Cook PVI of R+11/12). Are there a lot of Blue Dogs/Republican presidential/congressional voters who still vote Democrat in downballot races? Or a lot of undecideds? However, I also remember MacIntyre (a Blue Dog Dem) narrowly won reelection in 2012 in the newly gerrymandered district (and retired after that term). So maybe those districts are far less Republican than their PVI would suggest at the downballot level (a la OH-06).

In 910, Fayetteville is the largest metro, and Cumberland County was 60% Obama.  Wilmington is the other large metro and it was only Romney by 5ish.  Then there's a bunch of racially diverse (large black and Lumbee Indian population) rural counties that have basically been Dem for all eternity. bringing down the R margin outside Fayetteville.  However, between the rural Blue Dog holdouts, military bases, and resort retirees on the coast, the SE is also prime territory for a trend to Trump.

Thanks for the explanation. I can't believe I missed that Fayetteville is in that district, forgot about if for a second. It is in a pretty Dem-leaning county. I agree that the rural counties in NC-07 and NC-08 are ripe territories for Republican gains.

[Adam Griffin]

The sample is too Democratic, it has Obama and Romney tied 46-46 when Romney won 50-48. Wonder what would happen if the sample went to 50-48.

Since their poll only appears to be asking people who voted in 2012, then it's actually spot-on assuming that they want to use said sample in conjunction with a demographically-accurate 2016 electorate. Natural demographic shifts in NC alone would account for that shift:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[This account no longer in use.]

I think this is McCrory's first poll tied or leading since HB2.