Poll: Clinton crushes Trump among Asians

[IceSpear]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-asian-american-223502

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Luckily there are very few Asians (as well as very few blacks, Hispanics, gays, Indians, Muslims, Jews, and Sikhs) in West Virginia, so he should be safe here, but this is quite worrying for the national stage. Can any of my fellow Trumpets talk me down here?

[HillOfANight]

I think there's probably a big difference in Koreans say in GA vs Koreans in CA...

I looked at early voting for the 2016 primary, it seems like 50-60% of Koreans voted in the D primary, whereas for California, it's probably more like 75%.

[Holmes]

I think there's probably a big difference in Koreans say in GA vs Koreans in CA...

I looked at early voting for the 2016 primary, it seems like 50-60% of Koreans voted in the D primary, whereas for California, it's probably more like 75%.

Georgia being an open primary and California being closed for Republicans might have an impact on this, though. Some Asian-Americans in Georgia might have opted for the Republican primary for vote against Trump (for Rubio), but they were unable to do so in California (and the Republican primary is already over anyway).

Where did you get this information?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not surprising. This year for the first time Democrats achieved registration parity with Republicans among Vietnamese-Americans.
The bad part is of course that Asian-Americans are mostly concentrated in uncompetitive states (California, Hawaii, New York).

[RR1997]

Not surprising. This year for the first time Democrats achieved registration parity with Republicans among Vietnamese-Americans.
The bad part is of course that Asian-Americans are mostly concentrated in uncompetitive states (California, Hawaii, New York).

That is not necessarily true. There are a lot of Asian-Americans in Northern Virginia (specifically Korean and Indian Americans).

[Mehmentum]

B-b-but muh 2014 exit polling showed Republicans winning Asians!

[Mehmentum]

The 10 states with the largest Asian American populations:

Hawaii: 57.4%
California: 14.9%
Nevada: 9.0%
New Jersey: 9.0%
Washington: 9.0%
New York: 8.2%
Alaska: 7.1%
Virginia: 6.5%
Maryland: 6.4%
Massachusetts: 6.0%

[RR1997]

B-b-but muh 2014 exit polling showed Republicans winning Asians!

I think the main reason why 2014 exit polling showed Republicams winning Asian-Americans is because of low turnout.

[Angrie]

Are there no GE matchup numbers, or am I missing something? Only favorability ratings?

Terrible but expected numbers for Trump.

[Angrie]

I think the main reason why 2014 exit polling showed Republicams winning Asian-Americans is because of low turnout.

Exit polls have significant random error and sampling error, especially for small subsamples and for diverse groups. The "Asian" vote is definitely diverse and non-monolithic, and the exit poll numbers will be significantly affected by, for example, including or not including particular Vietnamese precincts in Orange County CA or Louisiana.

People always overestimate the reliability of exit polls.

[Green Line]

Asians are known to change their minds. Give it time.

[Santander]

Asians are known to change their minds. Give it time.

And other ethnic groups aren't?

[dax00]

They asked just about every question you'd want to ask except that of the candidate for whom they'd be voting in November -.-

[Chaddyr23]

Sounds about right, hopefully my fellow swing state Asians know where to vote come November. It's amazing that Dole won us in 96 and now we're 3 to 1 for Obama and Clinton

[libertpaulian]

Clearly the answer is for Trump to pose with some Chinese takeout and say "I love the Asians!"

[Adam Griffin]

I think there's probably a big difference in Koreans say in GA vs Koreans in CA...

I looked at early voting for the 2016 primary, it seems like 50-60% of Koreans voted in the D primary, whereas for California, it's probably more like 75%.

Exactly. It almost seems as if Asians take on the predominant philosophy of the states/communities in which they live. I dug into the party's voter file for some of the northern CDs in Georgia (14, 9, 11, 6) and the scoring models suggested that the Asian vote was anywhere from 60-70% Republican, depending on the congressional district. I'm not sure what specific nationalities exist from place to place, but outside of the metro/to the north, the most common Asians are Indians and Vietnamese, so it makes sense.


The untold story here really is the extent to which the Asian vote is shifting alongside the Latino vote. It has moved and appears to be moving just as much (if not more so) as the Latino vote over the past 8 years and in advance of this election.

Group	2004	2008	2012	Change '04-'12
Latino	D+9	D+36	D+45	D+36
Asian	D+13	D+27	D+47	D+34

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Not surprising. This year for the first time Democrats achieved registration parity with Republicans among Vietnamese-Americans.
The bad part is of course that Asian-Americans are mostly concentrated in uncompetitive states (California, Hawaii, New York).

That is not necessarily true. There are a lot of Asian-Americans in Northern Virginia (specifically Korean and Indian Americans).

Lots of SE Asians in Minnesota. They even have language choice for Hmong on a lot of them in and around Saint Paul.

[Mehmentum]

I think there's probably a big difference in Koreans say in GA vs Koreans in CA...

I looked at early voting for the 2016 primary, it seems like 50-60% of Koreans voted in the D primary, whereas for California, it's probably more like 75%.

Exactly. It almost seems as if Asians take on the predominant philosophy of the states/communities in which they live. I dug into the party's voter file for some of the northern CDs in Georgia (14, 9, 11, 6) and the scoring models suggested that the Asian vote was anywhere from 60-70% Republican, depending on the congressional district. I'm not sure what specific nationalities exist from place to place, but outside of the metro/to the north, the most common Asians are Indians and Vietnamese, so it makes sense.


The untold story here really is the extent to which the Asian vote is shifting alongside the Latino vote. It has moved and appears to be moving just as much (if not more so) as the Latino vote over the past 8 years and in advance of this election.

Group	2004	2008	2012	Change '04-'12
Latino	D+9	D+36	D+45	D+36
Asian	D+13	D+27	D+47	D+34

Interesting.  Benchmark Politics said something similar about how Asians vote in the Democratic primaries.

[Xing]

Asians are known to change their minds. Give it time.

Yep, give Trump time to say more racist things about Asians, and Clinton will win them by even more!

[Gustaf]

I think there's probably a big difference in Koreans say in GA vs Koreans in CA...

I looked at early voting for the 2016 primary, it seems like 50-60% of Koreans voted in the D primary, whereas for California, it's probably more like 75%.

Exactly. It almost seems as if Asians take on the predominant philosophy of the states/communities in which they live. I dug into the party's voter file for some of the northern CDs in Georgia (14, 9, 11, 6) and the scoring models suggested that the Asian vote was anywhere from 60-70% Republican, depending on the congressional district. I'm not sure what specific nationalities exist from place to place, but outside of the metro/to the north, the most common Asians are Indians and Vietnamese, so it makes sense.


The untold story here really is the extent to which the Asian vote is shifting alongside the Latino vote. It has moved and appears to be moving just as much (if not more so) as the Latino vote over the past 8 years and in advance of this election.

Group	2004	2008	2012	Change '04-'12
Latino	D+9	D+36	D+45	D+36
Asian	D+13	D+27	D+47	D+34

It's anecdotal but I remember an Asian ex telling me that many Chinese in Sweden tended to vote Social Democrat out of a perception that you were "supposed to" (them being the dominant party). Not sure how generalizable that observation was but it would fit the pattern you're talking about.