Predict: LP% in GE
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Poll
Question: What percentage of the popular vote will the Libertarian candidate win in the general election?
#1
0% to 3%		  
#2
3% to 6%		  
#3
6% to 9%		  
#4
9% to 12%		  
#5
12% to 15%		  
#6
15% to 20%		  
#7
20%+		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 94

Author Topic: Predict: LP% in GE  (Read 1503 times)
dax00
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« on: May 24, 2016, 02:58:17 PM »
People seem to really be discounting any third-party's performance, especially considering how hated the DEM and REP presumptive nominees are.
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sparkey
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2016, 03:22:33 PM »
Depends somewhat on the candidate:
Johnson: 2.5%
McAfee or Petersen: 1.5%
Perry: 0.5%

Something like that.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2016, 03:25:39 PM »
2%
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2016, 03:26:14 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2016, 03:29:07 PM by clash »
If Johnson: .8% - 1.1%
If Petersen: .5% - .8%
If McAfee: .5% - 1%
If Perry: .3% - .5%

Johnson will almost certainly be the nominee and will probably underperform his 2012 result.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2016, 03:38:37 PM »
1-2%.
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pho
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E: -0.13, S: -1.39

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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2016, 03:42:13 PM »
If I am being generous, 2%.
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LLR
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2016, 05:01:04 PM »
If no other legitimate third party runs, their ceiling is like 7%. Likely about 2 or 3.
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Boston Bread
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E: -5.00, S: -5.00

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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2016, 05:39:13 PM »
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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E: -4.26, S: -3.30

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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2016, 07:11:12 PM »
We'll see if they can bust the 1% threshold they've been pushing for. I think it is a toss-up!
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Camaro33
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2016, 07:18:23 PM »
It will be lower than expected. Clinton vs. Trump polarization will cause people to vote for one of them. I expect 1.5-2%
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Higgs
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2016, 07:47:28 PM »
0-3% like always.
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Santander
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2016, 07:51:14 PM »
2% would be a very good result for them.
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cxs018
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2016, 08:51:02 PM »
35%, to win the election (sane, not evil 2-party system loving NWO $hill)
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Dabeav
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2016, 12:22:17 AM »
I'll call they hit 5%.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2016, 12:24:47 AM »
The most I think Johnson/Weld could possibly get is 2%, and that's with David Koch accidentally shelling out a few million to help them out.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2016, 04:31:38 AM »
1.5%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2016, 06:05:36 AM »
Quote from: Santander on May 24, 2016, 07:51:14 PM
2% would be a very good result for them.
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President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️
Peebs
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« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2016, 06:12:44 AM »
1-1.5% is most likely, but if they do especially good, 2% is possible.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
evergreen
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« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2016, 06:27:16 AM »
at the moment i'd guess 1.5-2%, but i wouldn't rule anything out. this year has the best conditions for third parties since probably 1968
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Dabeav
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« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2016, 06:51:48 AM »
Quote from: tēyōllohcuāni on May 25, 2016, 06:27:16 AM
at the moment i'd guess 1.5-2%, but i wouldn't rule anything out. this year has the best conditions for third parties since probably 1968

Or I can hope for something like Ross Perot 1992.
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cxs018
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2016, 08:03:18 AM »
Quote from: tēyōllohcuāni on May 25, 2016, 06:27:16 AM
at the moment i'd guess 1.5-2%, but i wouldn't rule anything out. this year has the best conditions for third parties since probably 1968

In all seriousness, I more or less agree with this, especially if Johnson/Weld is the ticket. At this point in time, the Libertarians should care more about electability than ideology.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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E: -2.71, S: -5.22

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« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2016, 08:08:25 AM »
2.5% max.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2016, 09:10:08 AM »
Between 1.5 and 2.5%
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Chief Justice Keef
etr906
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« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2016, 09:20:29 AM »
I'm willing to wager they get around 4-6% of the vote. If people don't like the main candidates, then third-party numbers will be higher than usual.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2016, 02:29:00 PM »
I hope it's McAffe, just so I can make my "Homicidal Ransomware 2016" signs.
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