IL Sen: If Durbin runs for Gov in 2018

[Progressive]

If he wins the 2018 gov race, who runs for his seat?

[windjammer]

If he wins the 2018 gov race, who runs for his seat?

Durbin would likely appoint Bustos

[publicunofficial]

Durbin would get to appoint his successor. Most likely Cheri Bustos. Durbin is close with Bustos' family, basically paved the way for her congressional career, and is a fellow downstater.

[Kingpoleon]

I expect that Durbin would either appoint Bustos, his protege, or Sheila Simon, his mentor's daughter. Either one would be a big blow to the Daley-Emanuel Chicago establishment.

[JMT]

I agree with the others, I think Bustos gets this seat if Durbin is governor.

[Kingpoleon]

I agree with the others, I think Bustos gets this seat if Durbin is governor.

Yes, Bustos probably got the most profitable baby sitting job ever.

Durbin's probable shortlist and chances:
1. Cheri Bustos(60%)
2. Sheila Simon(15%)
3. Daniel Hynes(10%)
3. Michelle Obama(10%)
4. Field(5%)

Bustos might refuse just because she might lose a special election against someone like Kirk or Kinzinger.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Durbin is a lifer in the Senate. Why would he run for Governor?

[publicunofficial]

Durbin is a lifer in the Senate. Why would he run for Governor?

He's gone as far as he can in the Senate.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Durbin is a lifer in the Senate. Why would he run for Governor?

He's gone as far as he can in the Senate.

You're right, Schumer isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[Kingpoleon]

Durbin is a lifer in the Senate. Why would he run for Governor?

He's gone as far as he can in the Senate.

Agreed. He's too good of a person to ever get to be Majority Leader.

Durbin and Reid endorsed Schumer for Senate Democratic Leader.

[publicunofficial]

Durbin is a lifer in the Senate. Why would he run for Governor?

He's gone as far as he can in the Senate.

You're right, Schumer isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

And as I pointed out in another thread, Schumer might not even allow Durbin to retain his current Whip position. He mentioned Patty Murray could take the job in a recent interview, and Debbie Stabenow has been talked up as well.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Durbin is a lifer in the Senate. Why would he run for Governor?

He's gone as far as he can in the Senate.

You're right, Schumer isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

And as I pointed out in another thread, Schumer might not even allow Durbin to retain his current Whip position. He mentioned Patty Murray could take the job in a recent interview, and Debbie Stabenow has been talked up as well.

Haven't seen that. Obviously there is some discord there.

[IceSpear]

What did Durbin do to piss off his colleagues?

[moderatevoter]

What did Durbin do to piss off his colleagues?

He and Schumer's relationship seems to have deteriorated a bit -- starting in 2010 (when people thought Reid was a goner), and it seems to have gotten worse when Schumer wouldn't support Durbin over Murray for Whip back in like 2014. It's weird, because Durbin and Schumer used to be roommates too, I think?

The idea of Durbin as Governor is odd, but I think Bustos would be his replacement. Down-stater and seems personally close with him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What did Durbin do to piss off his colleagues?

Nothing. It's just that Schumer is a ruthless street fighter, better equipped to lead Democrats against scorched-earth Republicans than good guy Durbin.

[IceSpear]

What did Durbin do to piss off his colleagues?

Nothing. It's just that Schumer is a ruthless street fighter, better equipped to lead Democrats against scorched-earth Republicans than good guy Durbin.

That makes sense, but the fact that people are floating the idea of replacing him with Murray when he's been a "loyal soldier" (at least publicly) seems very odd. I'm guessing there's more going on behind the scenes here.

[This account no longer in use.]

Either way, I feel like he's a lifer, although I could see Murray or Warren becoming the Democratic Whip. I simply can't imagine Durbin running for governor.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What did Durbin do to piss off his colleagues?

Nothing. It's just that Schumer is a ruthless street fighter, better equipped to lead Democrats against scorched-earth Republicans than good guy Durbin.

That makes sense, but the fact that people are floating the idea of replacing him with Murray when he's been a "loyal soldier" (at least publicly) seems very odd. I'm guessing there's more going on behind the scenes here.

Apparently Democrats want some diversity instead of again having two white guys running the caucus. Murray has been part of the leadership for many years too.

[Mr. Illini]

I expect that Durbin would either appoint Bustos, his protege, or Sheila Simon, his mentor's daughter. Either one would be a big blow to the Daley-Emanuel Chicago establishment.

Comment lacks understanding of Illinois and Chicago politics

[Kingpoleon]

I expect that Durbin would either appoint Bustos, his protege, or Sheila Simon, his mentor's daughter. Either one would be a big blow to the Daley-Emanuel Chicago establishment.

Comment lacks understanding of Illinois and Chicago politics

Can confirm. Chicago never primaries down staters who run statewide.

[Mr. Illini]

I expect that Durbin would either appoint Bustos, his protege, or Sheila Simon, his mentor's daughter. Either one would be a big blow to the Daley-Emanuel Chicago establishment.

Comment lacks understanding of Illinois and Chicago politics

Can confirm. Chicago never primaries down staters who run statewide.

Durbin gets along very well with the machine. As does Sheila Simon. I presume Bustos will as well.

In terms of the "Daley-Emanuel Chicago Establishment™" and Durbin's particular role in actual city politics, it's a lot more complicated than you allude to.

Take the State's Attorney race that Green Line and I were discussing in my Chicagoland maps thread. Rahm's candidate was Anita Alvarez. She was also a Daley favorite and protege early on in her career. Yet, the Cook County Democratic Party, the current political anchor of the machine, endorsed Kim Foxx, who Durbin also endorsed. People's Pat Quinn also endorsed Foxx.

Chicago elections are littered with examples like this. Even within the "machine" there are factions and the factions oftentimes ally with "outsiders" like Durbin - and this is especially true in recent decades where the machine is not nearly as organized and powerful as it once was.

tl;dr The "Chicago Machine" is complicated politically. I certainly wouldn't claim to understand every aspect, and I live here and follow local politics and news. But I do know that your original comment lacks understanding.

[Kingpoleon]

I apologize. Simplification often allows for better understanding. Yes, there are different factions and teams within the Chicago machine. Yes, Durbin and Simon work/worked alongside the Machine, but they and Bustos are largely outside of it. The Chicago Machine would probably prefer one of their own in both Senate seats than one of Durbin's allies.

[Mr. Illini]

The problem with your logic is that Durbin is essentially "one of their own." He absolutely listens when they talk, and I don't think they're at all worried about Bustos doing so either.

[Kingpoleon]

The problem with your logic is that Durbin is essentially "one of their own." He absolutely listens when they talk, and I don't think they're at all worried about Bustos doing so either.

OK. I just feel like if he weren't so well-respected by the moderates and, really, everybody, they would challenge him more. Furthermore, wouldn't he resign before he became Governor, meaning Rauner would appoint someone, probably someone like Adam Kinzinger, Mark Kirk, or Tom Cross.

Is that just me misunderstanding IL law?

[muon2]

In 2009 a lawsuit was filed to force a special election for Obama's unexpired term. In July 2010 a federal ruling was upheld on appeal to force a special election. They determined that the appointment was only temporary and a special election was required. By the time it was settled the special election only affected the term from Nov 2010 through swearing in of the new Congress in 2011. It does set precedent in IL should Durbin leave the Senate for Gov.