538 taking Johnson/Weld seriously

[catographer]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pay-attention-to-libertarian-gary-johnson-hes-pulling-10-vs-trump-and-clinton/

Perhaps Henten is onto something, perhaps this is another epically wrong 538 forecast.

[136or142]

And Weld they should!  (sorry)

[Skye]

But what is Johnson's message? The libertarian message hasn't gotten traction in recent years, his poll numbers only indicate "I'm not Trump, nor Clinton". I doubt he gets those numbers in the end.

[Vosem]

But what is Johnson's message? The libertarian message hasn't gotten traction in recent years, his poll numbers only indicate "I'm not Trump, nor Clinton". I doubt he gets those numbers in the end.

Do you think he'll magically turn into Trump or Clinton before the election happens?

[cwt]

But what is Johnson's message? The libertarian message hasn't gotten traction in recent years, his poll numbers only indicate "I'm not Trump, nor Clinton". I doubt he gets those numbers in the end.

Do you think he'll magically turn into Trump or Clinton before the election happens?

No, but most of the "not Trump, not Clinton" voters will simply not vote.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

But what is Johnson's message? The libertarian message hasn't gotten traction in recent years, his poll numbers only indicate "I'm not Trump, nor Clinton". I doubt he gets those numbers in the end.

His message? "Kneel before Koch."

(Which is really all the Libertarian message has been for a long time, if not for ever.)

[Maxwell]

Here's the thing - what if Johnson loses the nomination?

I don't think Libertarian grassroots would take the news of Weld being on the ticket too well.

[bumpercrop]

Here's the thing - what if Johnson loses the nomination?

I don't think Libertarian grassroots would take the news of Weld being on the ticket too well.

The Libertarian grassroots consist of maybe 5 guys in a trailer in rural northeastern Nevada. They'll be too busy searching for running water this weekend to make it to the Libertarian Convention.

[catographer]

Wonder if McAfee would do better than Johnson/Weld in the general. Crazy 1 v. Crazy 2?

[pho]

...and right after everyone stopped taking 538 seriously. Poor LP, they can't catch a break

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the thing - what if Johnson loses the nomination?

I don't think Libertarian grassroots would take the news of Weld being on the ticket too well.

I'm not sure how predictive it has been in the past, but a recently-created "who do you want to be the nominee?" poll on the LP's website has Peterson ahead of Johnson 50%-31% with McAfee at 10%.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Here's the thing - what if Johnson loses the nomination?

I don't think Libertarian grassroots would take the news of Weld being on the ticket too well.

I'm not sure how predictive it has been in the past, but a recently-created "who do you want to be the nominee?" poll on the LP's website has Peterson ahead of Johnson 50%-31% with McAfee at 10%.

Ah. Internet polls. I'm really not sure why more people don't take them seriously in the Paul administration. At least we'll have Bernie for our next president.

[Ebsy]

Enten is good at tweeting but not so great at predicting elections.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Here's the thing - what if Johnson loses the nomination?

I don't think Libertarian grassroots would take the news of Weld being on the ticket too well.

I'm not sure how predictive it has been in the past, but a recently-created "who do you want to be the nominee?" poll on the LP's website has Peterson ahead of Johnson 50%-31% with McAfee at 10%.

Ah. Internet polls. I'm really not sure why more people don't take them seriously in the Paul administration. At least we'll have Bernie for our next president.

If a Paul then Bernie adminstration is what we got instead then I'm all for Internet polls replacing actual elections!

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Wonder if McAfee would do better than Johnson/Weld in the general. Crazy 1 v. Crazy 2?

Fight fire with fire. McAfee would "stump the Trump"!

[King]

Johnson/Weld's campaign would do best not to really discuss libertarianism but focus more on broad issues like term limits, campaign finance reform, and electoral reform.

[sparkey]

Here's the thing - what if Johnson loses the nomination?

I don't think Libertarian grassroots would take the news of Weld being on the ticket too well.

I'm not sure how predictive it has been in the past, but a recently-created "who do you want to be the nominee?" poll on the LP's website has Peterson ahead of Johnson 50%-31% with McAfee at 10%.

I think Petersen's supporters are the least likely to be delegates, then Johnson's supporters, then McAfee's supporters, then Perry's supporters. Weight Internet polls accordingly. Petersen does seem to be getting a bit of a surge, but it's probably largely from the likes of Glenn Beck listeners who liked his appearances on TheBlaze. Credit to Petersen; he did very well in the debate on TheBlaze and in his interview with Glenn Beck. But that newfound support is not necessarily full of LP delegates.

I think that Petersen would perform worse than Johnson in the general, but he'd be a safer pick than McAfee, who could either perform much better or much worse. The main concern about Petersen is that it's not simple to answer the question, "Austin Petersen? Who is that?" I, as a supporter, couldn't say, "the former Governor of New Mexico" or "the McAfee Antivirus guy," I'm stuck explaining what The Libertarian Republic and Freedom Watch are, and why a guy who worked on those things should even come close to being considered for President.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Johnson/Weld's campaign would do best not to really discuss libertarianism but focus more on broad issues like term limits, campaign finance reform, and electoral reform.

Definitely, no one outside hardcore libertarians cares about the gold standard, splitting hairs on the Civil Rights Act (yeah, you Rand), or even Ending the Fed (Reserve).  Those things you mention, ending corporatism and bringing back a real free market (jobs or starting your own business), reducing/eliminating domestic spying, curtailing/replacing/dismantling the TSA, etc would carry more interest right now.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the thing.  So much of this depends on whether mainstream political pundits talk about Johnson at all.  Third party candidates are capable of getting a few % of the vote if the media makes the voters aware of their existence.  E.g., in 2000, the media talked about Nader enough for him to get ~3% of the vote.  The fact that Nader was running had broken into the public consciousness enough that, for example, he was depicted on Saturday Night Live.  People knew who he was and that he was running for president.  In 2004, 2008, and 2012 though, there was 3rd party candidate who was known by the public.  Hardly anyone knew who Johnson was in 2012.

The fact that a few polls have included Johnson as a 3rd choice suggest that *maybe* he has a shot at being talked about by the MSM to the extent that Nader was in 2000, but I’m still a bit skeptical.  If a bunch of prominent #NeverTrump Republicans endorsed him, then that would be enough for the media to talk about him, but I don’t think they will.  I guess we’ll have to wait and see how/if the media reacts to the Libertarian Convention, and Johnson (or whoever) getting nominated there.  That could be the inflection point.

[Seriously?]

Johnson isn't even the nominee yet. The convention is this weekend in Orlando. But whatever. He will end up with 1% again.

[Mehmentum]

Johnson really is in an ideal position for a third party candidate.  

-Libertarians have universal ballot access.
-He didn't do horribly for a 3rd party in 2012.
-He was a governor, which makes his candidacy more credible.
-Clinton and Trump have angered parts of their parties, and have very high favorables.
-Libertarians could plausibly appeal to disaffected #NeverTrumpers, disaffected #BernieorBusters and disaffected moderates.

Basically, if a third party candidate is ever going to make an impact, its now.

[Nym90]

Enten is good at tweeting but not so great at predicting elections.

Clare Malone wrote this article (though Enten did contribute research).

[Maxwell]

Johnson really is in an ideal position for a third party candidate.  

-Libertarians have universal ballot access.
-He didn't do horribly for a 3rd party in 2012.
-He was a governor, which makes his candidacy more credible.
-Clinton and Trump have angered parts of their parties, and have very high favorables.
-Libertarians could plausibly appeal to disaffected #NeverTrumpers, disaffected #BernieorBusters and disaffected moderates.

Basically, if a third party candidate is ever going to make an impact, its now.

On paper, yes. In reality, Johnson is this man.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

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Wut?

[Nym90]

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Wut?

This was mostly a joke, but it's true that your local supermarket probably didn't sell avocados if you lived in the Midwest in the 90's.