Breaking: Ryan expected to end standoff with Trump

[RFayette]

You might want to read this article, Vosem: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-realignment-partisan-political-party-policy-democrats-republicans-politics-213909

I already have. The article makes some very good points (it's absolutely correct about the culture war being basically over and the country moving on from it) but fails to make certain other observations (he mentions that the young lean left now, but the lack of support for Trump, and nationalistic politics in general, among Republican-voting under-45-year-olds is not mentioned). The truth is the party system the article sets forth would be a sustainable one now, had things evolved differently 30 years ago, but it couldn't happen in 10-15 years because the internationalist party would have a permanent majority.

The truth is that nationalistic politics is a shrinking minority within the Republican Party. The future is one where the Democrats move to the economic left (until Sanders is basically a mainstream, typical party member), while Republicans essentially stay where they are, becoming a libertarian-ish party. The Democrats occasionally use minority, especially black, identity politics, while Republicans continue to depend on white evangelical voters (abortion as an issue persists far into the future, even as LGBTQ equality ceases to be debated and is written in the history books). Trump is seen as a brief anomaly and gets a paragraph or two in the section about the 2010s where they talk about the evolving political system (Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders are both likely to be discussed in more detail; Hillary is talked about in the section on her Presidency).

Republicans are going to move to the center on economic policy in the future, though I agree with everything else you said.  I just don't see candidates running on cutting the top marginal tax rate (much) or deregulating Wall Street by repealing Dodd-Frank or if so, it won't be very successful.  George W Bush's legacy is still haunting the party with young voters.

[RFayette]

Are you talking about the same Ron Paul who ran two failed campaigns and couldn't extend his movement beyond the Kool-Aid drinking corners of the internet?  The same Ron Paul whose son dropped out after getting less than five percent of the vote in Iowa?

I like that you're optimistic and idealistic, but color me skeptical, to say the least!  I won't rule out every one of your predictions, but even assuming Trump and his ideology completely fizzles the moment he loses, to suggest that Ron Paul, of all people, will gain more coverage in the history books than a George Wallace-esque candidate who hijacked a national party seems a bit far-fetched to me.

It makes sense because Ron Paul, while personally unelectable, in the patterns of his support clearly heralded an actual shift in the Republican Party (towards emphasis on fiscal issues, away from combative social issues), and he'll be recognized as a harbinger of the shift after it is finished (however similar or dissimilar the final product ends up being to Paul). There isn't much to say about Trump (what does a history book now have to say about Wallace, besides a sentence or two dedicated to his unsuccessful run? RFK, who was never the nominee, gets more coverage because he represented an actual shift in the party).

I wouldn't call my predictions optimistic. I supported McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 (in the primaries, that is); I am much more interventionist than I perceive the future of the Republican Party to be, and I find the Democratic future distinctly horrifying (I'd much prefer the current, Obama/Clinton party to what I think the Democrats will be like 15 years from now). I'm just calling things the way I see them.

I agree with you that the GOP will pursue a more libertarian philosophy with respect to entitlement spending (and overall government spending) as well as foreign policy (albeit still supporting more military spending to a lesser extent), but I really don't think the GOP will push too much for top-bracket marginal income tax rates or deregulation of financial services.