New poll shows Asian-Americans are more supportive of Democratic Party than ever

[Virginiá]

If Republicans want to take back this demographic, then they better do it quick and effectively. The strongest Democratic support is coming from Asian Millennials, and if Republicans can't break their political leanings now then they are looking at a lost generation of Asian American voters:



A voting bloc as small as Asians typically isn't that powerful, that is, unless the margins are as lopsided as they are looking above. Those kinds of ratings for Republicans are among the lowest of any demographic for the GOP. And no, the vast majority of these voters are not going to "wake up" and turn more conservative Republican as they age

[Indy Texas]

And no, the vast majority of these voters are not going to "wake up" and turn more conservative Republican as they age

I don't know why people are so ignorant of this phenomenon. Most people pick the "team" they're rooting for by the time they're in their late 20s.

Reagan and Bush Sr. overperformed with young voters. Reagan didn't sweep the South in 1980 by getting a bunch of old Yellow Dogs to vote Republican for the first or second time in their life. He won because those people's grandchildren were starting what would ultimately turn into a lifetime of voting Republican. Mondale trying to get them to think of the New Deal was as pointless and futile as the current day Republicans trying to get people excited about Ronald Reagan who were wearing diapers when Reagan was president.

[hopper]

If Republicans want to take back this demographic, then they better do it quick and effectively. The strongest Democratic support is coming from Asian Millennials, and if Republicans can't break their political leanings now then they are looking at a lost generation of Asian American voters:



A voting bloc as small as Asians typically isn't that powerful, that is, unless the margins are as lopsided as they are looking above. Those kinds of ratings for Republicans are among the lowest of any demographic for the GOP. And no, the vast majority of these voters are not going to "wake up" and turn more conservative Republican as they age

I wonder why Millennial Asians are so much more Dem than other generations of Asian-Americans. Millennial Asians are 41 more points Dem than Asians ages 30+.

[ag]

I wonder why Millennial Asians are so much more Dem than other generations of Asian-Americans.

Asians are a heterogeneous group and many national immigrations are ancestrally Republican/conservative. The thing about the younger generation is not merely the age difference: it is also the degree of assimillation. And Asians are assmillating into the Asian/urban mainstream, which is overwhelmingly Democratic.

[Ogre Mage]

Didn't Bob Dole win Asian-Americans in 1996? If they could swing for the Democrats so quickly, then maybe they could back for the GOP quickly.

Asian voters did not swing to the Democrats quickly.  Look at the voting pattern over the last two decades of Presidential elections.  It is very clear.

1992 Asian vote:  George H.W. Bush 55%, Bill Clinton 31%
1996 Asian vote:  Bob Dole 48%, Bill Clinton 44%
2000 Asian vote:  Al Gore 55%, George W. Bush 41%
2004 Asian vote:  John Kerry 56%, George W. Bush 43%
2008 Asian vote:  Barack Obama 62%, John McCain 35%
2012 Asian vote:  Barack Obama 73%, Mitt Romney 26%

[hopper]

I wonder why Millennial Asians are so much more Dem than other generations of Asian-Americans.

Asians are a heterogeneous group and many national immigrations are ancestrally Republican/conservative. The thing about the younger generation is not merely the age difference: it is also the degree of assimillation. And Asians are assmillating into the Asian/urban mainstream, which is overwhelmingly Democratic.

I actually looked on how much % of Asian Population of a County that it took Obama in 2012 of winning 73% of the Asian Vote and it took a county with a 25% of Asian Population to get to the 73% number. If I took the 5% Asian Population(lets just estimate)of a county which was the same % as the countries in 2012 as a whole its only 55-40% Dem(don't know where the other 5% of the vote went.)

[hopper]

Here is the AALDEF breakdown based on age for the 2012 Presidential Vote for the Asian Vote and each age group was won by Obama.

18-29: 86-10% Obama
30-39 82-16%
40-49 73-26%
50-59 72-26%
60-69 72-27%
70 and over 76-23%

AALDEF says the Asian Vote was 77-21% Democrat as opposed to the exit poll numbers of 73-26%.

[Adam Griffin]

The problem with the notion that Asian-American voters are fluid - and therefore can bounce relatively quickly back to the GOP - is that it's based on previous voting behavior and not current dynamics. Yes, the Asian-American voting bloc was elastic in previous years and had a substantial portion of its voters - a majority, in fact - identifying as independents.

Recent behavior from the GOP, however, is ending that window of opportunity. The bulk of Asian-American independent voters are beginning to affiliate with the Democratic Party; it's not very common for large chunks of voters who have been notoriously resistant to partisan affiliation to begin doing so and then abandon it in equal portions later on. It almost always takes a generational shift along with death to  move the needle in a new direction. This group of voters appear to be finally assimilating politically, and no, they're not moving to the right as they do so.

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And it's not being driven by any one ethnicity in particular: all major AAPI groups are trending Democratic, and fast. Even Vietnamese voters are now a leaning Democratic group.



Obama is roughly 10 points more popular among Asians than he was in 2012; Clinton is more popular than Obama was then; Trump is 10 points less popular among Asians than Romney was four years ago.

[Matty]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

[The Last Northerner]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

Except for locally (Orange County comes to mind), Asian voters are low turnout aren't generally targeted by political machines, which are mostly Democratic to my knowledge.  ag has pointed a good point that I'll expand on. There isn't really an 'Asian voting bloc' in a similar sense to blacks... not just in language and religion either. It's not much a political machine thing as much as it is a friends&family, neighbors&community sort of thing:

Asian millennials vote similiarly to their Hispanic cohorts; a lot of them were born in the US (but their parents/grandparents were immigrants), identify as 'Asian' and sometimes do not speak their ethnic language. They lean Democratic of course and will support Clinton to stop TRUMP, even if they voted for Sanders in the primary.

Older Asians identify more strongly ethnic background, are 1st/1.5 generation immigrants, and are supposely the 'Why don't Asians vote Republican' type people that right-wing pundits argue about. There is no 'Asian voting bloc' here as much as there are  Vietnamese or Chinese or Indian voters. Back in 2008, McCain was a relatively good fit for some of these voters - enough to stop/slow the bleeding. If your friends and community voted for McCain, chances are you did too (not so much your kids). But word on the street is they are taking a good look at Mrs. Clinton.

And here is even more bad news for the GOP - the former group is growing while the latter is going the way of the southern Democrats... dying.

[Badger]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

I think you're on to something here. that's certainly at least part of it.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Well, maybe if they'd just be a party about fighting redistribution and wasteful spending and supporting an overall lessening of the size and scope of government (you know, real conservatism) instead of bigotry, this wouldn't happen. I don't really feel sorry for the GOP voters; they made their bed by voting for Trump, and now, they can lie in it.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Not surprising when you have a political party that is anti-intellectualism, bashes prestigious universities of higher learning as "elitist," denies climate change, values abstract religious beliefs over concrete scientific facts, blames hurricanes and other natural disasters on gay people having equal rights and abortion, and wants to privatize public education. Asians value education, so their unwillingness to vote for a party that panders to a bunch of WASP rural voters, conspiracy theorists and yokels who value their guns and Bibles over their pocketbooks and economic stability isn’t all that shocking. Of course, this is going to be exacerbated with Trump’s inflammatory anti-immigration rhetoric. I'd imagine Asians don't want to be associated with these "cretins" who embrace the Republican Party, so they vote Democratic. 

[Derpist]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

There are a lot of rural Hispanics. I don't think they vote that differently from suburban Hispanics.

Republicans who think the right candidate will get them Asian or Hispanic voters are over-optimistic. Most minorities vote Democrat for a simple reason: they hold socially and economically liberal beliefs. That can be changed, but not in the short-term.

Asians and Hispanics aren't going in the same direction though. 2nd-generation Hispanics (excluding Cubans) are typically more conservative than their parents as they assimilate. Meanwhile, Asian voters go in the opposite direction because they probably cannot be assimilated in the same way and start adopting views similar to those of the racial "other" in American society (blacks).

A GOP that gets 60% of non-hispanic whites, 35% of hispanics, 15% of Asians, and 15% of blacks is in a perfectly fine position.

[Derpist]

Ha Ha no. Birth Rates are pretty even with each ethnicity now that the Hispanic(Mexican Baby Boom) died when the Housing Bubble went bust. 

Not entirely true. Asian birthrates are significantly lower than white/hispanic/black birthrates. Combine that with the fact that probably under half of those births have two Asian parents, and you can likely come to the conclusion that the "Asian vote" doesn't really matter that much.

[Badger]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

There are a lot of rural Hispanics. I don't think they vote that differently from suburban Hispanics.

Republicans who think the right candidate will get them Asian or Hispanic voters are over-optimistic. Most minorities vote Democrat for a simple reason: they hold socially and economically liberal beliefs. That can be changed, but not in the short-term.

Asians and Hispanics aren't going in the same direction though. 2nd-generation Hispanics (excluding Cubans) are typically more conservative than their parents as they assimilate. Meanwhile, Asian voters go in the opposite direction because they probably cannot be assimilated in the same way and start adopting views similar to those of the racial "other" in American society (blacks).

A GOP that gets 60% of non-hispanic whites, 35% of hispanics, 15% of Asians, and 15% of blacks is in a perfectly fine position.

That's a highly optimistic view of Hispanic voting trends and GOP voting share.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow! This is fantastic news.

[hopper]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

There are a lot of rural Hispanics. I don't think they vote that differently from suburban Hispanics.

Republicans who think the right candidate will get them Asian or Hispanic voters are over-optimistic. Most minorities vote Democrat for a simple reason: they hold socially and economically liberal beliefs. That can be changed, but not in the short-term.

Asians and Hispanics aren't going in the same direction though. 2nd-generation Hispanics (excluding Cubans) are typically more conservative than their parents as they assimilate. Meanwhile, Asian voters go in the opposite direction because they probably cannot be assimilated in the same way and start adopting views similar to those of the racial "other" in American society (blacks).

A GOP that gets 60% of non-hispanic whites, 35% of hispanics, 15% of Asians, and 15% of blacks is in a perfectly fine position.

Why? I mean they aren't alot of Asian/Black Marriages as they are Whites marrying Asians, Blacks, or Hispanics.  

I think Hispanics don't mind voting for GOP Candidates at the State and Congressional Level but their Presidential Candidates suck bad the last 2 times out anyway with Romney and Trump.

[hopper]

It's interesting to me that what is rarely brought up in these threads is that with the exception of southern blacks in the black belt, most ethnic minorities are heavily concentrated in cities, where democratic machines are very efficient at mobilizing and reaching voters.

What if this Asian transformation is in reality a symptom of the growing urban-rural divide?

There are a lot of rural Hispanics. I don't think they vote that differently from suburban Hispanics.

Republicans who think the right candidate will get them Asian or Hispanic voters are over-optimistic. Most minorities vote Democrat for a simple reason: they hold socially and economically liberal beliefs. That can be changed, but not in the short-term.

Asians and Hispanics aren't going in the same direction though. 2nd-generation Hispanics (excluding Cubans) are typically more conservative than their parents as they assimilate. Meanwhile, Asian voters go in the opposite direction because they probably cannot be assimilated in the same way and start adopting views similar to those of the racial "other" in American society (blacks).

A GOP that gets 60% of non-hispanic whites, 35% of hispanics, 15% of Asians, and 15% of blacks is in a perfectly fine position.

That's a highly optimistic view of Hispanic voting trends and GOP voting share.

I don't think the GOP can keep the 60% White Voting Share in the long-term. Yes try to get 10-15% of the Black Vote. 35% of Hispanics is kinda neutral for the GOP in the long term. Gotta get somewhere around 40-42% in Presidential Years.