The Appalachia State Presidential Primary

[Angrie]

I wasn't sure whether to post this here or in the Political Geography and Demographics forum. Moderators can please move it if it is supposed to go there.

This is interesting. If Appalachia were its own state, Trump would obviously have won in a landslide:



But one funny thing is that with Appalachia removed from Virginia, Rubio would actually have won the rest of Virginia. If Little Marco had won a state like VA on Super Tuesday, maybe he might have done a better job of consolidating establishment Republicans, and might have stayed in the race longer:



On the Dem side, it was a close race in Appalachia, with Clinton narrowly winning. I think that if the entirety of Appalachia voted in a closed primary, Bernie would have won. Whereas if the entirety of Appalachia voted in an open primary, Hillary would have won. A key variable is whether the Republican primary is open or closed. If it were open, then Conservadems would cross over and vote for Trump in the GOP primary rather than vote for Bernie in the Dem primary. All kinds of irony here.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The first map shows which counties should be included for the Dems, so that would be easy enough to calculate if not a bit time intensive.

West Viriginia is hard to count because the other two had already dropped (not that Trump wouldn't have won, but I think that the margin would have been a few points less). Kentucky was a caucus for the Republicans (thanks Rand), so that also throws a wrench in things.

[Wisconsin+17]

That VA split is why I said that Rubio couldn't win - polling to the left of Trump with Kasich in. Pity he didn't realize that earlier...

[Angrie]

The first map shows which counties should be included for the Dems, so that would be easy enough to calculate if not a bit time intensive.

Oops, I forgot to include the Dem map. I modified the post to add it.

[Lief 🗽]

Doesn't Appalachia extend a bit into New York as well?

[Gass3268]

Doesn't Appalachia extend a bit into New York as well?

This article describes how the region was defined

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

They did this in 2012, IIRC?

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't get southwestern Virginia for the Democrats. Has Bernie really picked up that much steam during the time or has Hillary's comments really hurt her?

[Ronnie]

I don't get southwestern Virginia for the Democrats. Has Bernie really picked up that much steam during the time or has Hillary's comments really hurt her?

Bernie completely wrote off VA and most other ST states, aside from the ones he won plus MA.

[Figueira]

I don't get southwestern Virginia for the Democrats. Has Bernie really picked up that much steam during the time or has Hillary's comments really hurt her?

Bernie completely wrote off VA and most other ST states, aside from the ones he won plus MA.

That was one of his biggest mistakes. A lot of people are under the impression that primaries vote in an electoral college type system, so if you know that Hillary is going to win your state, you shouldn't bother voting. In fact, getting respectable margins in the South would have helped Sanders stay competitive.

That said, he tried pretty hard in South Carolina and failed miserably, so maybe it wouldn't have worked. Plus, the media narrative would have been a lot worse if he had gotten 40% across the South on Super Tuesday while losing every state except Vermont (the latter of which looked like a real possibility based on the lack of polling in some places).

[VPH]

I think Bernie really should have put more money into Virginia and North Carolina's Appalachian areas.