Jay Inslee +7 Moore Information (May 16th-18th)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Jay Inslee 43%
Bill Bryant 36%
Undecided 18%

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2842026-Moore-Information-WA-Voter-Poll-May-2016.html

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Interesting.....

[Ebsy]

Interesting.....

Not in the slightest.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Is anyone still writing Bryant off?  The fact that he's within single digits of Inslee should have Dems concerned.

[Heisenberg]

Is anyone still writing Bryant off?  The fact that he's within single digits of Inslee should have Dems concerned.

He's no McKenna. The RGA should look into WV, VT, and MO (and maybe MT, polling is needed) as potential pickups. They also have to defend NC and IN.

[President Johnson]

Inslee will win a comfortable reelection. This is not a really competative race.

[Heisenberg]

Inslee will win a comfortable reelection. This is not a really competative race.

Agree. Many undecideds will come home to Inslee.

[bumpercrop]

LOL this is an internal for Bryant's campaign...

#fail

[Xing]

Is anyone still writing Bryant off?  The fact that he's within single digits of Inslee should have Dems concerned.

Not really. Polls often underestimate Democrats in Washington, and 7 points is hardly an ultra close result anyway. Republicans would be wasting their time worrying about this race.

[publicunofficial]

Is anyone still writing Bryant off?  The fact that he's within single digits of Inslee should have Dems concerned.

No, it really shouldn't.


Also, if Bryant is down 7 in his own internal, he's toast.

[IceSpear]

Hopefully the Republicans spend lots of money here. While they're at it, they should fight hard for Oregon (Kate Brown is vulnerable!) and West Virginia (not a GOP lock!)

[The Other Castro]

One poll doesn't confirm anything, I think we need some moore information before coming to any conclusions.

[Xing]

One poll doesn't confirm anything, I think we need some moore information before coming to any conclusions.

Ha, I see what you did there.

[sg0508]

It really is amazing how the GOP just cannot win ANYTHING statewide in WA and OR anymore.  OR is actually worse for them because the GOP cupboard is totally bare.  In WA state, they've put up some decent candidates, but just keep losing. I honestly believe it's because the Republicans in WA are simply too far right, forcing their candidates to move right and then, it's too late when they try to move back to the middle.  Also, there seems to be a huge "coming home" effect in King County and the surrounding suburbs, which are getting stronger for Democrats.

This could also be the year the GOP officially gets shutout in WA state...they had long been winning and holding one statewide office (I forget which one), but they may lose it this time.

[ElectionsGuy]

It really is amazing how the GOP just cannot win ANYTHING statewide in WA and OR anymore.  OR is actually worse for them because the GOP cupboard is totally bare.  In WA state, they've put up some decent candidates, but just keep losing. I honestly believe it's because the Republicans in WA are simply too far right, forcing their candidates to move right and then, it's too late when they try to move back to the middle.  Also, there seems to be a huge "coming home" effect in King County and the surrounding suburbs, which are getting stronger for Democrats.

This could also be the year the GOP officially gets shutout in WA state...they had long been winning and holding one statewide office (I forget which one), but they may lose it this time.

The Republicans have Kim Wyman as a Secretary of State (barely won in 2012) and presumably she's running again. If anything that's the race to watch in 2016.

[RI]

I don't see why Wyman would lose, especially if she can continue to run Dem-like margins in Thurston County (as Sam Reed did). Look at Sam Reed's electoral trajectory: He won by less than Wyman in 2000, but won by 6% in 2004 and 17% in 2008. WA tends to have a strong pro-incumbent bias for statewide offices.

[KingSweden]

It really is amazing how the GOP just cannot win ANYTHING statewide in WA and OR anymore.  OR is actually worse for them because the GOP cupboard is totally bare.  In WA state, they've put up some decent candidates, but just keep losing. I honestly believe it's because the Republicans in WA are simply too far right, forcing their candidates to move right and then, it's too late when they try to move back to the middle.  Also, there seems to be a huge "coming home" effect in King County and the surrounding suburbs, which are getting stronger for Democrats.

This could also be the year the GOP officially gets shutout in WA state...they had long been winning and holding one statewide office (I forget which one), but they may lose it this time.

The base is in the East and Southwest yet the talent is in the King suburbs. The talent runs into trouble as they have to tack too far right to appeal to the base but can't tack back to the middle or left to win statewide.

[RI]

Given the top two primary and presidential year turnout, is there any reason WA Republicans don't just break hard toward the center? Would that many Republicans really defect given they're already voting for more important races and there's only a Dem running against them on the ballot?

[Vega]

Given the top two primary and presidential year turnout, is there any reason WA Republicans don't just break hard toward the center? Would that many Republicans really defect given they're already voting for more important races and there's only a Dem running against them on the ballot?

I really don't think that would help them because of when Governor elections are held, as brought by IceSpear in another thread. It's just hard for them to break past the Presidential year turnout.