Would Bernie have performed better had he actually competed in the South? (user search)
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  Would Bernie have performed better had he actually competed in the South? (search mode)
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Yes
 
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Author Topic: Would Bernie have performed better had he actually competed in the South?  (Read 1450 times)
Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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Posts: 31,720
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Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

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« on: May 25, 2016, 04:43:11 PM »

In the white areas of the south, yes. He could've won some more counties in Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, and gotten about 10% better. When proportionality means more than winning in the Democratic Primary, his strategy of ignoring the south was really stupid.

There was probably also some room to grow in Texas. Latinos /=/ Blacks.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,720
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2016, 10:53:23 PM »

One strategy that could have worked is pick one "whiter" southern state (Virginia, Tennessee, or Texas if he had the money) to go all in on and try to win. Given how desperate the media was to keep the horserace going (at a time when it wasn't clear that Sanders would stay in no matter what), they would have definitely helped promote the narrative of "We got a YUGE win!!!!" if it worked, even if the delegate allocation in MN/CO/OK/MA became less favorable to him as a result. This would have made Michigan into a "He did it again! Hillary is doomed!" story, rather than a "WTF? Last minute buyer's remorse?" story. Maybe a full two week negative news cycle for Hillary would have turned MO and IL into 3-5 point Bernie wins, and made OH the close race it was "supposed" to be. We'll never know.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,720
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2016, 01:31:56 AM »

He would've done better, not not better enough to make a major difference. Remember, he actually invested in SC and still lost by 50.

He pulled out a week before the contest, which probably lost him a good 8 points or so. Also VA/TN/TX have better demographics than SC for him.
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