If Clinton actually loses to Trump...

[Kingpoleon]

Clinton still would've defeated McCain in 2008. If anything, the map would be a bit different than in RL, with Clinton easily picking up Missouri, West Virginia, Arkansas, and maybe Tennessee, Kentucky, and Louisiana. On the other hand, I have McCain picking up Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, and North Carolina. Virginia and Ohio also might have been a bit closer in a Clinton vs McCain race, but I still see Clinton carrying both.

I don't think Clinton would win Arkansas unless she got more appeal to Blue Dogs without alienating the progressives who supported Halter in 2010.

[Kingpoleon]

Clinton still would've defeated McCain in 2008. If anything, the map would be a bit different than in RL, with Clinton easily picking up Missouri, West Virginia, Arkansas, and maybe Tennessee, Kentucky, and Louisiana. On the other hand, I have McCain picking up Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, and North Carolina. Virginia and Ohio also might have been a bit closer in a Clinton vs McCain race, but I still see Clinton carrying both.

I don't think Clinton would win Arkansas unless she got more appeal to Blue Dogs without alienating the progressives who supported Halter in 2010.

Arkansas would have been a tough state for Hillary Clinton in 2008, but I feel that it is plausible for her to have carried it due to her past connections to the state and also due to the economic collapse and subsequent recession in 2008. Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky also would have been tough states for Clinton as well, but I feel she would have had a chance in all three if she ran a strong enough campaign and framed her campaign in a way that appealed to Blue Dog Democrats.

Maybe with Bayh or Beebe on the ticket, but even then there are a few labor progressives who might vote Nader or Green or are moderate enough to consider McCain. I just don't see Clinton carrying Obama's 2008 coalition plus enough votes to win Arkansas.

This is the only way I see her carrying Arkansas:

335: Senator Hillary Clinton/Governor Mike Beebe - 52.4%
203: Senator John McCain/Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Alvarez - 45.6%
Others - 2.0%