What's more likely?

[President Johnson]

What's more likely?

Hillary wins, but Democrats are unable to retake the Senate; or TRUMP wins and Democrats manage to win at least 51 Senate seats.

First would mean, that people vote against TRUMP, including lots of Republicans (who vote Republican in Senate races).

Second would mean, a lot of Independents and some Democrats (supposedly Bernie-supporters) vote for TRUMP, but for Democrats in congress in order to have a balance to the Donald.

I say the odds are about equal, though I consider both scenarios as unlikely. The second option, however, would be very very interesting.

[Figueira]

The first one. If it's a very narrow Clinton victory, I suspect Toomey, Portman, and Ayotte will hold onto their seats, and the Republicans will keep Murphy's seat.

The only way I can see the opposite happening is if it's a super-polarizing election in which Trump wins without Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire, and the Senate races all follow the Presidential race in their respective states.

[TDAS04]

Definitely option 1.

[President Johnson]

Option 2. I can't see the Republicans holding the Senate right now. Ayotte and Johnson are toast, Kirk is an underdog and the FL GOP is throwing away Rubio's seat.

That would result in a 50-50 tie, meaning TRUMP's VP has a tie-breaking vote. However, I don't think that Ayotte is toast, she's still running a very close race. On the other hand, Democrats have to defend Colorado (Bennet) and keep Reid's seat in Nevada.

[tallguy23]

It's more likely that voters will pick Hillary (out of fear) but vote for incumbent Republicans to prevent her from doing anything major.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I've got a funny feeling Trump is going to get the win.

Why? I think that his media wall is complete.

49% of the media are people liking about Trump's policies.
51% of the media are people not liking Trump's policies.

Not to mention social groups.

"Bikers for Trump"

"Natives against Trump"

for example.

As time goes on, the prevalence of Trump in the media will have a saturation effect, and eventually when the money comes out of the closet for a winner, a lot of people will front up for Trump.

Don't underestimate the effect of media saturation.