VA-Gravis Marketing Clinton Leads 45-41

[mds32]

Virginia
Clinton 45
Trump 41

Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 6

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/

[Vosem]

Looks about right. I suspect Virginia is the sort of state where dissident Republicans may be more likely to vote Clinton outright (as opposed to voting Johnson, sitting out, or swallowing their pride) than in most places.

[IceSpear]

Apparently the sample is 25% Muslim. Seriously.

http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=e52d36a3aa

[standwrand]

lol Gravis

[Holmes]

First an ARG national poll, then a Zogby poll of Ohio, now a Gravis poll of Virginia?

The holy trinity.

[RFayette]

Apparently the sample is 25% Muslim. Seriously.

http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=e52d36a3aa

This is a junk poll, but it does make me wonder:  are some secular Arab-Americans identifying as "Muslim" as a point of pride against Trump, just like some are doing w/ Hispanic?

[Angrie]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

[Holmes]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

Hm, I wonder what a McAullife -> Trump or a Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter looks like.

[RI]

Apparently the sample is 25% Muslim. Seriously.

While 25% is very high, Virginia does have a much higher Muslim population than people realize. For example, Emporia is over 30% Muslim, Goochland County over 20%, Loudon County 16%.

[Angrie]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

Hm, I wonder what a McAullife -> Trump or a Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter looks like.

A Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter would be a NeverTrump Conservative.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter would be one of the last straggler Conservadems from Appalachia.

[Mehmentum]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

Hm, I wonder what a McAullife -> Trump or a Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter looks like.

A Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter would be a NeverTrump Conservative.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter would be one of the last straggler Conservadems from Appalachia.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter could also be one of the #BernieorBust people.

[IceSpear]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

Hm, I wonder what a McAullife -> Trump or a Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter looks like.

A Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter would be a NeverTrump Conservative.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter would be one of the last straggler Conservadems from Appalachia.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter could also be one of the #BernieorBust people.

I doubt any of those would've voted in an off year, assuming they've voted before at all.

[Ebsy]

Apparently the sample is 25% Muslim. Seriously.

http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=e52d36a3aa

That's... um... something?

[Ljube]

Looks about right. I suspect Virginia is the sort of state where dissident Republicans may be more likely to vote Clinton outright (as opposed to voting Johnson, sitting out, or swallowing their pride) than in most places.

Indeed. At least that's the situation now.

I suspect, in the end, dissident Republicans will swallow their pride.
Because a vote for anybody but Trump is actually a vote against their interest.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

Hm, I wonder what a McAullife -> Trump or a Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter looks like.

A Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter would be a NeverTrump Conservative.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter would be one of the last straggler Conservadems from Appalachia.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter could also be one of the #BernieorBust people.

I doubt any of those would've voted in an off year, assuming they've voted before at all.

Some have been reliable Democratic voters for decades.

[Virginiá]

Looks about right. I suspect Virginia is the sort of state where dissident Republicans may be more likely to vote Clinton outright (as opposed to voting Johnson, sitting out, or swallowing their pride) than in most places.

Indeed. At least that's the situation now.

I suspect, in the end, dissident Republicans will swallow their pride.
Because a vote for anybody but Trump is actually a vote against their interest.

In all fairness, a lot of Republican voters have been voting against their interests for some time, which coincidentally is the reason they now have Trump.

There is a time when even partisan loyalty isn't enough to overcome the dislike many have for Trump. I'm sure lots will swallow their pride but I wouldn't shrug off the potential he has to drive away enough voters to cost him the state.

[Eraserhead]

Apparently the sample is 25% Muslim. Seriously.

http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=e52d36a3aa

Damn, Sanders would have done great in this poll.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's weaknesses in VA are exaggerated on this forum.

That's probably true as of now.  Sketchy polling company, but this looks just like 2012 in the head to head and a lot like 2008 with Johnson (who will surely drop, and takes 2:1 from Trump here).  So it's probably enough to trend D again but Clinton's not winning it by 10 when she's +1-2 nationally.

Virginia has been drifting D, and demographics (people moving in from mostly D states and taking their political values with them) cause the trend. Virginia could now vote more strongly Democratic than the US as a whole.

Virginia going 55-45 for Hillary Clinton indicates a landslide characteristic of Bill Clinton in the 1990s or Obama in 2008 (365 to 380 electoral votes), if not bigger. Bigger? I don;t see that yet.   

[IceSpear]

The matchup with Johnson looks a lot like McAullife vs. Cuccinelli.

Hm, I wonder what a McAullife -> Trump or a Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter looks like.

A Cuccinelli -> Clinton voter would be a NeverTrump Conservative.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter would be one of the last straggler Conservadems from Appalachia.

A McAuliffe -> Trump voter could also be one of the #BernieorBust people.

I doubt any of those would've voted in an off year, assuming they've voted before at all.

Some have been reliable Democratic voters for decades.

When you consider that:

1) There is not a huge amount of Bernie or bust people according to the polls even now.
2) They will likely rapidly decrease even further once Hillary officially wins, just like the #NeverTrump people did.
3) There are still 5 months left for them to "come home" as tensions cool and hurt feelings lessen (this is true on the GOP side as well)
4) Those that do stick to it will be disproportionately younger, a group that is already far more prone to vote third party and not show up in midterms and especially in off years.

I'm not too concerned about it. I mean yeah, I'm sure "some" Bernie or bust people have been reliable Democratic voters for decades, in the sense that more than 2 can be labeled as "some." Not that I think there will be only 2, but I doubt it will be enough to be decisive except in the closest of elections. Even a million spread across the entire country would be small potatoes.

[indietraveler]

It'd be interesting to see a breakdown of different regions in the state. It's hard to imagine the Trump doing better than Romney (or even coming close to him) in the DC area. I think Trump would have to significantly over perform in other parts of the state to make up for it.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Apparently the sample is 25% Muslim. Seriously.

http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=e52d36a3aa

This is a junk poll, but it does make me wonder:  are some secular Arab-Americans identifying as "Muslim" as a point of pride against Trump, just like some are doing w/ Hispanic?

Probably makes sense...but most (75%) of Arab-Americans are Christians, I'm in the minority of Arabs who are Muslim.

[Kingpoleon]

RIP Clinton in Virginia