Was 1948 Truman's win or Dewey's loss?

[NeverAgain]

Was it Dewey's fault he lost, or did Truman just win the American people over?

[DINGO Joe]

Dewey should have shaved off the latte sipping mustache and he might have had a chance.

[LLR]

Truman ran a great campaign.

[swf541]

Truman's win.  Dewey didnt run a bad campaign or was a bad candidate, Truman defied all odds, sought a 5th consecutive term for a party and was coming off WWII etc and ran a masterful campaign

[Fuzzybigfoot]

You could argue that it was congress's loss. 

[ag]

Truman's win. Dewey did not make any obvious mistakes, but Truman made a miracle.

[Mr. Smith]

Dewey's loss, he had all the power behind him and could easily have painted Truman as desperate, but he did next to nothing.

[RINO Tom]

Dewey's loss.  Completely ignored civil rights (even though several Black newspapers endorsed him) and could have easily highlighted his good record on the issue.  It likely cost him the states he needed to win.

[DINGO Joe]

Dewey's loss.  Completely ignored civil rights (even though several Black newspapers endorsed him) and could have easily highlighted his good record on the issue.  It likely cost him the states he needed to win.

I could see it tipping Ohio and Illinois, but not anything beyond that.  Which would have put the election in the House where things would have gotten weird I assume.  I've never really read anything analyzing such a "what-if".

[ag]

Dewey's loss.  Completely ignored civil rights (even though several Black newspapers endorsed him) and could have easily highlighted his good record on the issue.  It likely cost him the states he needed to win.

I could see it tipping Ohio and Illinois, but not anything beyond that.  Which would have put the election in the House where things would have gotten weird I assume.  I've never really read anything analyzing such a "what-if".

It could have also had an effect of concentrating Dixie minds in a way he did not think desirable. Thurmond´s rebellion would have been a lot less sustainable if Dewey was viewed as a greater threat. At least, I could see Louisiana flipping to Truman.

[RogueBeaver]

Both. Truman ran a great populist campaign, Dewey ran an awful one - platitudes, exacerbating intraparty ideological divisions, ignoring the farm vote, being an insufferable asshole, not making any positive case for himself, etc.

[Fuzzy Bear]

You could argue that it was congress's loss. 

True.  There's a lot of parallels with 2010-12 in there: nutty congressional overreach leads to unusually strong incumbent win in tepid economy.

There's a backstory to this.

During his acceptance speech at the 1948 Democratic National Convention, Truman challenged the Republican Congress to enact their platform.  He assured all listeners that he would not oppose this.  This was, of course, something of a sucker's challenge because the Dewey platform was moderately liberal, while the GOP Congress was significantly more conservative than Dewey or the convention delegates that wrote the platform.  With the help of Dixiecrats, conservative Republicans ensured that none of the GOP platform was passed into law.  Truman brought this up repeatedly, noting that the GOP controlled both houses of Congress, but could not enact their own platform.

This year's GOP has a parallel; the candidate is more liberal (at least on some issues) than the Congressional GOP.  What would happen if Hillary challenged the GOP to enact their platform into law, especially if it included measures that did not meet the approval of Tea Party types and Movement Conservatives?  What would the impact on the race be if that happened?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Dewey's loss.  Completely ignored civil rights (even though several Black newspapers endorsed him) and could have easily highlighted his good record on the issue.  It likely cost him the states he needed to win.

I could see it tipping Ohio and Illinois, but not anything beyond that.  Which would have put the election in the House where things would have gotten weird I assume.  I've never really read anything analyzing such a "what-if".

It could have also had an effect of concentrating Dixie minds in a way he did not think desirable. Thurmond´s rebellion would have been a lot less sustainable if Dewey was viewed as a greater threat. At least, I could see Louisiana flipping to Truman.

The Dixiecrats only won those states where Thurmond and Wright were listed as the DEMOCRATIC nominees on the ballot.  Thurmond and Wright did not carry a single Southern state where Truman and Barkley were the Democratic nominees and they (Thurmond and Wright) were listed as "States Rights Democratic Party". 

Predictably, it was the Deep South the provided most of the support for Thurmond and Wright, but this was not uniform.  Louisiana's Earl Long faction lost in their state convention to the Sam Jones/Jimmie Davis faction and named their Democratic electors for Thurmond and Wright.  Georgia, on the other hand, had its electors named for Truman and Barkley; had Eugene Talmadge still been living, they may have gone for Thurmond and Wright. 

[Podgy the Bear]

Truman's ability to minimize the Henry Wallace vote was significant.  He was able to pull out California, Illinois, and Ohio, and he was within 60,000 votes of taking New York.   

If Wallace had not received the American Labor Party endorsement in New York (which provided nearly half of his national vote total--most of his vote was concentrated in NYC), Truman would have probably won the state.   

[President Johnson]

Truman's win, because he a ran an unbelievable campaign. Truman was a fearless campaigner and, despite all the polls, he never lost his confidence and fought as hard as he can. And he prevailed.

[jaichind]

You could argue that it was congress's loss. 

I agree.  I most of the battleground states Dewey ran ahead of the GOP congressional vote.  Truman made the election about Truman vs GOP Congress and won.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Truman's win, because he a ran an unbelievable campaign. Truman was a fearless campaigner and, despite all the polls, he never lost his confidence and fought as hard as he can. And he prevailed.

This pretty much nails it.

[SATW]

Dewey was a decent figure, but Thank G-d Truman was able to win. By far the best Dem President. I give Truman credit for the win.

[Sir Mohamed]

You could argue that it was congress's loss. 

Truman won it because he ran, as already pointed out, like hell for reelection, but you make an interesting point here. Truman just barely mentioned Dewey in his campaign speeches, he vigorously attacked the GOP controlled 80th congress, whom he referred to as the “do nothing congress”. We can laugh about this today, considering the fact that this congress passed the Marshall Plan among other things. The congressional sessions since 2011 have been the least productive ever. It was a truly smart move that the president called lawmakers back into session in the summer of 1948 to demonstrate, that they’re unwilling to pass popular measures. Truman used this to attack the GOP, because Dewey was actually a lot more liberal than the mainstream of the congressional Republicans.

[pbrower2a]

Truman ran a good campaign, and Dewey ran an execrable campaign.  Dewey got only 189 electoral votes, 47 from his own state (New York) and 62 from neighboring states. He seems to have campaigned little outside the Northeast, getting only 28 electoral votes west of the Mississippi River. He lost states that would eventually go reliably Republican beginning in 1952.


"Congratulations, Tom Dewey!
You won by a landslide today!
Through thick and through thin.
We knew you would win
'Cause who'd ever vote to let Truman stay in?
Congratulations, Tom Dewey!
Your Republican dreams have come true!
Here's a victory roar
For President Number Thirty-Four
The White House... is waiting... for you!"

Had it not been for the racist Strom Thurmond campaign, Truman might have won 342 electoral votes, which is a slightly bigger win than Barack Obama got in 2012. 

[Kingpoleon]

Truman's win. Dewey ran a campaign that was remarkable for its positivity, and quite frankly, probably better than what Americans deserved.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Truman's win. Dewey ran a campaign that was remarkable for its positivity, and quite frankly, probably better than what Americans deserved.

Dewey would have been an excellent President if he had not run until 1952.  He was washed up young, kind of like Marco Rubio runs the risk of being.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Dewey's loss, he had some blunders and lost a large lead in the polls against Truman.