Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton +5 (Again)
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton +5 (Again)
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton +5 (Again)  (Read 606 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 26, 2016, 01:32:03 PM »

One week later, no change in their polling.

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTracking5252016.pdf

Clinton: 41
Trump: 36

Trump's unfavorables are up to 58/42 though, and Obama is at 47/46 for a +1 approval rating.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2016, 02:30:37 PM »

Yeahhh!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2016, 12:00:45 AM »

Considering TRUMP brought millions new voters to Republican Primary 2016.

Wrong:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236898.0
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2016, 01:43:43 AM »


your analysis
Ohio: TRUMP brought 161k new voters (=2.01 million x 8%)
Florida: TRUMP brought 141k new voters (=2.36 million x 6%)

only with 2 states results, already 302k new voters.
with 40+ states(Primaries and Caucus until May,2016) it could be millions.

And the voters never voted for GOP <--- it should be included as a new voter for TRUMP.
(especially independent voters, which used to vote for DEM)

The issue is that these people were new to the primary process but already typically voted GOP in the general election with some frequency, so they're not really new voters.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2016, 02:02:27 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2016, 02:06:34 AM by StatesPoll »


your analysis
Ohio: TRUMP brought 161k new voters (=2.01 million x 8%)
Florida: TRUMP brought 141k new voters (=2.36 million x 6%)

only with 2 states results, already 302k new voters.
with 40+ states(Primaries and Caucus until May,2016) it could be millions.

And the voters never voted for GOP <--- it should be included as a new voter for TRUMP.
(especially independent voters, which used to vote for DEM)

The issue is that these people were new to the primary process but already typically voted GOP in the general election with some frequency, so they're not really new voters.

Plus, You don't focus on crossover-voters?

for example Ohio primary

Ohio GOP Primary : 8% Democrats voters (crossover-voter)
161k voters (=2.01 million x 8%)

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/oh/Rep
(look the 'Party ID' part)

includes 161k new voters(never voted before).
161k + 161k = 322k voters

Only with one state Ohio,
Already 322k new voters for Republican Party.(It doesn't include indpependent voters Which attended GOP Ohio Primary, Which voted for DEM before)

One state shows TRUMP brought 322k + @(Independent voters who voted for Democratic Party before). It means with 40+ states(Primaries and Caucuses until May). It could be millions voters for sure.

Between,
Ohio Democratic Primary : only 2% Republican voters (crossover-voter)
Only Total 24k voters (=1.20 million x 2%)

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/oh/Dem
(look the 'Party ID' part)

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