If Hillary loses the California primary to Bernie..........
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  If Hillary loses the California primary to Bernie..........
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Author Topic: If Hillary loses the California primary to Bernie..........  (Read 2408 times)
Lincoln Republican
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« on: May 26, 2016, 07:58:08 PM »

..........she will still be the nominee but

..........how badly will that damage her as the nominee in the election?
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2016, 07:59:46 PM »

It does no damage at all
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2016, 08:02:24 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2016, 08:03:57 PM by Fusionmunster »

Nothing, NJ will make sure to that. California will basically be ignored as all the news stations call the race for Hillary after NJ is called.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2016, 08:02:53 PM »

It'd be hugely embarrassing for her but it won't happen.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2016, 08:05:14 PM »

I think it gets lost in the background a bit. The media will be more focused on Hillary Clinton becoming the presumptive nominee, and the general election, that they will largely ignore the results of the primary states that day.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2016, 08:07:48 PM »

It'd be hugely embarrassing for her but it won't happen.

Why would it be hugely embarrassing? If Bernie does win it, it'll be a close win that wont get called until hours after Hillary is announced as the presumptive nominee. If anything, any positive coverage Bernie receives will be drowned out by all the calls for him to drop out.
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cxs018
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2016, 08:08:10 PM »

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2016, 08:13:26 PM »

It'd be hugely embarrassing for her but it won't happen.

Why would it be hugely embarrassing? If Bernie does win it, it'll be a close win that wont get called until hours after Hillary is announced as the presumptive nominee. If anything, any positive coverage Bernie receives will be drowned out by all the calls for him to drop out.

It's by far the largest state in the country and it's very good for her demographically. She'd still be the nominee so it wouldn't matter in that sense but if you don't think that the media would have a field day with her losing here you're kidding yourself.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2016, 08:16:10 PM »

I agree with Eraserhead here, it would be embarrassing. It won't hurt in the long-term, but will in the short-term.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2016, 08:16:25 PM »

It might hurt her ego
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Sbane
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2016, 10:20:57 PM »

Hillary will likely win by double digits.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2016, 10:22:25 PM »


A politician has an ego?!

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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2016, 11:30:14 PM »

It would delay the unification process, which does some long-term damage
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2016, 03:24:19 AM »

Eh, she'll clinch by New Jersey making CA meaningless at the end of the night. Short term it won't hurt her and longterm it won't hurt her either. The interesting part is if she manages to lose 50+ contested states by the end of the day, over two campaigns. That's a record, the next nearest successful nominee was Reagan.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2016, 12:31:32 PM »

"Well, I was considering voting for Hillary in the general, but because she lost the California primary 5 months ago to a guy who isn't on the ballot, I think I'm going to vote for Trump instead"

Makes total sense! Atlas #analysis is great.

It will get her a week or so of negative press then nobody will care anymore. It will have as much impact as Obama almost losing West Virginia and Arkansas in 2012 did, or Hillary winning South Dakota in 2008 did.
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Wells
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« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2016, 01:07:14 PM »

It depends on how much Bernie wins by.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2016, 02:33:18 PM »

Nothing, NJ will make sure to that. California will basically be ignored as all the news stations call the race for Hillary after NJ is called.

I'm sorry but the idea of the media caring more about NJ than California is hilarious!

They won't care more about NJ specifically. But once the polls close there she will clinch the nomination, and all the discussion will be about that. CA will be an afterthought.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2016, 02:35:13 PM »

It won't matter.
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wolfsblood07
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« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2016, 04:52:06 PM »

Hillary is a horrible candidate.  A loss on California will underscore how awful and how there is no rationale for her to be president.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2016, 05:00:13 PM »

I'm not sure why the media has decided to push the narrative that California is particularly close at the moment (well, I am, because more clicks = more money). Sanders' California campaign staff has been hemorrhaging for a while, and he is not nearly on the air enough to make that serious of a difference. I might be wrong about what's going on in California, but it just does seem to be that close. SUSA was the best pollster in California before the 2008 primary, showing Clinton far ahead while all the other pollsters had Obama ahead, and Clinton came out right were SUSA had her pegged at +10. I'm inclined to believe SUSA over the usually terrible PPIC.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: May 27, 2016, 05:01:58 PM »

Hillary is a horrible candidate.  A loss on California will underscore how awful and how there is no rationale for her to be president.

There was no rationale for Dubya to be president because he lost NH to McCain.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2016, 05:40:56 PM »

Hillary is a horrible candidate.  A loss on California will underscore how awful and how there is no rationale for her to be president.

Yes, and based on the number of people I've run into wearing Bernie t-shirts or driving cars with Bernie bumper stickers, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that Bernie pulls off a very close upset. (Then again, I'm in the SF bay area, one of the most left-leaning areas of the country, so who knows?)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2016, 05:44:51 PM »

Hillary is a horrible candidate.  A loss on California will underscore how awful and how there is no rationale for her to be president.

Yes, and based on the number of people I've run into wearing Bernie t-shirts or driving cars with Bernie bumper stickers, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that Bernie pulls off a very close upset. (Then again, I'm in the SF bay area, one of the most left-leaning areas of the country, so who knows?)

It wouldn't surprise me if there were more people with Bernie t-shirts than Hillary t-shirts in Mississippi.
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