Libertarian National Convention thread

[sparkey]

It begins!

There was a preliminary debate yesterday: http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/05/videos-of-todays-presidential-debate-at-the-libertarian-party-convention/

Johnson's VP pick of William Weld is proving controversial, if the audience response to it during the debate is any indication: http://reason.com/blog/2016/05/27/gary-johnson-booed-at-libertarian-party

As for the other candidates, Petersen has kept doing his thing, McAfee has ramped up the attacks on Johnson while praising Perry in particular (plz vote for me, Perry supporters, if this goes to multiple ballots), and Perry's support seems pretty entrenched (although I've read a references to an unfortunately named scandal, which I think refers to this).

The main presidential debate will be tomorrow on C-SPAN. There will also be a vice-presidential debate today.

Post-preliminary debate straw polls show a closer battle than the pre-convention Hammer of Truth poll:

For President:
    Gary Johnson – 35%
    Austin Petersen – 24%
    Darryl W. Perry – 23%
    John McAfee – 13%
    Marc Allan Feldman – 4%
    NOTA – 1%

For Vice-President:
    Bill Weld – 38%
    Will Coley – 21%
    Larry Sharpe – 21%
    Alicia Dearn – 13%
    Judd Weiss – 5%
    Mark Stewart – 1%

[PaperKooper]

I'm surprised to see Perry above McAfee in the straw poll.

[sparkey]

I'm surprised to see Perry above McAfee in the straw poll.

I'm not. Me in January:

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he got second place in the voting.

He has a shot at 2nd, and that's his running mate in 2nd place in the VP straw poll. He probably doesn't have a shot at 1st place, though.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

I'm surprised to see Perry above McAfee in the straw poll.

If he is/was in the Free State Project movement, that would make sense. 

[DKrol]

Weld's doing better than I thought he would, at least based on the Internet Libertarians I've run into. I love Weld, as a Bay Stater, but I've seen a lot of people call him a fraud and describe his run as quixotic.

[sparkey]

Weld's doing better than I thought he would, at least based on the Internet Libertarians I've run into. I love Weld, as a Bay Stater, but I've seen a lot of people call him a fraud and describe his run as quixotic.

I like Weld a lot, too, even as an Internet Libertarian. I dropped my support for McAfee because Johnson picked Weld, a great pick, while McAfee picked a random photographer who hung a jury on a rape charge (Weiss).

[This account no longer in use.]

I'm surprised to see Perry above McAfee in the straw poll.

If he is/was in the Free State Project movement, that would make sense. 

Perry really hasn't done anything besides post on the Internet. I'm surprised he's even been accepted as a legitimate candidate, let alone become one of Johnson's leading challengers.

[Maxwell]

Serious: if the Libertarians actually nominate Darryl Fing Perry (who, I'm sure, didn't file the FEC papers because muh constitution), then I severely over-estimated them.

[The Other Castro]

Lol my TL's scenario might actually happen, and that part was mostly for fun. GO DWP!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I might swing by on my way up to Tally tomorrow. Oddly enough, one of my best friends is at a comic book/anime convention in the same hotel. I've stayed there before, it's a nice place. Not extremely pricy but it's no dump.

[sparkey]

The LP just seriously considered dropping its pro-choice abortion plank. It failed, though, the LP is still officially a pro-choice party.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Perry will appear on MSNBC at some point this weekend.

[Pandaguineapig]

I think Johnson needs to hit 50% of the delegates to win, so I can see perry and McAfee supporters giving there support to Petersen to stop johnson

[This account no longer in use.]

I think Johnson needs to hit 50% of the delegates to win, so I can see perry and McAfee supporters giving there support to Petersen to stop johnson

Why would the most extreme libertarian candidates support somebody who's not even a libertarian?

[Pandaguineapig]

I think Johnson needs to hit 50% of the delegates to win, so I can see perry and McAfee supporters giving there support to Petersen to stop johnson

Why would the most extreme libertarian candidates support somebody who's not even a libertarian?

Besides being pro-life he's more pure libertarian than johnson

[sparkey]

I think Johnson needs to hit 50% of the delegates to win, so I can see perry and McAfee supporters giving there support to Petersen to stop johnson

Why would the most extreme libertarian candidates support somebody who's not even a libertarian?

The general perception is that the candidates ranked from most to least radical are: Perry, McAfee, Petersen, Johnson. Perry supporters are the least likely to transfer to Johnson, and probably would transfer to Petersen over him (although they split evenly in the latest IPR poll, so it isn't a given). Petersen supporters do tend to transfer to Johnson. McAfee supporters scatter.

Here is how I see the balloting going if the straw poll is the same as the first ballot:

Ballot 1
    Gary Johnson – 35%
    Austin Petersen – 24%
    Darryl W. Perry – 23%
    John McAfee – 13%
    Marc Allan Feldman – 4% (eliminated)
    NOTA – 1%

Ballot 2
    Gary Johnson – 36%
    Austin Petersen – 25%
    Darryl W. Perry – 24%
    John McAfee – 14% (eliminated)
    NOTA – 1%

Ballot 3
    Gary Johnson – 41%
    Austin Petersen – 31%
    Darryl W. Perry – 27%
    NOTA – 1%

Ballot 4
    Gary Johnson – 51%
    Austin Petersen – 45%
    NOTA – 4%

Something like that. Of course, both McAfee and Perry could make it even more interesting by endorsing Petersen.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Petersen one of the "personally pro-life politically pro-choice" people, or full-blown pro-life? A read through his Facebook posts strongly suggests he believes partial birth abortion should be illegal, and he did say that he doesn't support allowing the doctor to try alternative procedures (like crushing the skull) when an abortion fails to work. But I haven't heard him give a specific position  (i.e. last 10 weeks, last 20 weeks) to what period of time he'd like abortion to be illegal in. He completely dodged this question during the Fox Business Debate.

[sparkey]

Livestream: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/libertarian-party1

The VP debate is happening right now. Weiss missed the cut so he's not there. Weld has a nice tie.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I might swing by on my way up to Tally tomorrow. Oddly enough, one of my best friends is at a comic book/anime convention in the same hotel. I've stayed there before, it's a nice place. Not extremely pricy but it's no dump.

I'm going to the same event, but it's actually at the VERY LARGE Convention Center not really attached to the hotel, 90,000 people in total scheduled to go.

But back to the LNC....I will laugh if we get an Atlasian as the leader of the 3rd largest party.

[Maxwell]

I got a glimpse of this - Weld looks depressed.

[sparkey]

I got a glimpse of this - Weld looks depressed.

It's a huge contrast with Coley, who is angry, radical, and ready to shout.

[Maxwell]

Bold prediction: Even if Johnson gets the nomination, he will not get his VP pick.

[Ebsy]

Gary Johnson losing would be hysterical.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Gary Johnson will most likely win the nod, the question is whether or not Weld wins VP

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Bold prediction: Even if Johnson gets the nomination, he will not get his VP pick.

I suspect a compromise nominee will enter-Bentivolio dropped out to back Weld, but in the end, I think he might end up on the ticket after all.