How would the Florida Senate race rate if Rubio runs for Re-Election?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

While unlikely, if Rubio chose to run for Re-election and gets by the primary, how would you rate this race. I would personally say Toss-up.

[This account no longer in use.]

Lean D. Rubio has been overrated from the very beginning.

[IceSpear]

Same as it is now, toss up.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R

[Heisenberg]

I'd say only Tilt R, but I voted Lean R because he's more likely to hold the seat than any other Republican. He'd shift the rating to the right, though not by much.

[mds32]

Rubio would bring it to Lean R. He has gotten back to work and seems to be voting rather moderately.

[Kingpoleon]

Murphy v. Jolly: Pure Tossup

Murphy v. Rubio, CLC: Tossup/Tilt D

Murphy v. DeSantis: Lean D

[Xing]

Not only is Rubio overrated, him running for re-election after running for president and saying that he wouldn't seek re-election looks weak. It should be clear to anyone that he doesn't want to be in the senate, and that he was just using as senate seat as a launch pad for a presidential run. Of course, not everyone will realize that, and races in Florida are always competitive, so it'd probably be a toss-up.

[Kingpoleon]

There is some chance Beruff runs ahead of Trump statewide because he is Cuban.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2004

Not to mention that Beruff would probably lose the White vote to Murphy. He's worse than Akin or Mourdock.

Beruff, if he actually succeeded like Trump, could bring up Trump's percentage among Cubans.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

He would easily win the primary due to the lack of name recognition of everyone else in it but would have a hard time in the general election because:

1. He has said repeatedly that he is not running for reelection and has no interest in a second term
2. His attendance record has been abysmal because he spent too much time campaigning and not enough serving his state
3. He "justified" his absence by saying "I am not running for reelection"

I think those attack lines would prove too much for Rubio to overcome. Maybe he could do it if he were to promise to serve out the full term (and maybe a third term as well if reelected) to alleviate the perception that the Senate seat is a consolation prize and a stepping stone to a second presidential run in 2020.

However, amidst all this, he remains popular in Miami-Dade County, a place where Dems must do well to win, and Alan Grayson could be nominated, so it could happen.

I'd start the race out as a very unpredictable toss-up with Rubio strongly favored in the primary.

[President Johnson]

Lean Republican.

Marco has better chances than the other Republicans.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Toss up. You guys severely overrate him because muh Hispanics.

[Badger]

Lean D. Rubio has been overrated from the very beginning.

This, though more likely Tilt D.

[sg0508]

Lean R. He would probably win despite the mockery he's made of himself over the past year.  Part of it is that many still underestimate how crappy the Democratic Party is here in the state.

[Devils30]

Rubio here has a reputation for neglecting the state, he would likely be at the mercy of Trump. He could win but if Trump implodes in Florida he goes down with him.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Lean D. I think you guys are underestimating how badly he was damaged by his embarrassing, terrible presidential campaign.

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss up. You guys severely overrate him because muh Hispanics.

I think he'll do better because he has the advantage of incumbency and all the power that comes with it when running a campaign, not because of Hispanics (though I do think he would do better in Miami-Dade than any other Republican).

[Sir Mohamed]

A pure toss-up. Rubio is overestimated.