Gut feeling about the Hillary campaign

[Lincoln Republican]

It's early in the campaign I know, BUT..........

I have a gut feeling that the Hillary for President campaign is at the beginning of a slow, downhill trend, and will have ups and downs before the election, but will not recover before the election.

I kind of feel like the wheels are coming off her campaign.

It's just a gut feeling, not based on scientific trends at all.

And remember, I am not particularly a Trump fan.

Anyone have similar impressions?

Or if you have any gut feelings about any of the Presidential campaigns, what are they?

I, and I am sure others as well, would be interested to know.

[Lyin' Steve]

Hillary's basically paralyzed by Bernie right now.
Her campaign is all ready to blast into the general election but she can't because any general election move she makes before Bernie endorses her will hurt her ability to get his supporters.
This is the third Clinton general election campaign and they apparently have the biggest ground game in history.  The gut feelings come from all the negative media coverage she gets, but she's been buried under negative coverage this entire campaign and yet she still beat Bernie Sanders, who had excessively favorable and unchallenging coverage, by an enormous margin and did so apparently quite easily.

[Dr. Arch]

Hillary's basically paralyzed by Bernie right now.
Her campaign is all ready to blast into the general election but she can't because any general election move she makes before Bernie endorses her will hurt her ability to get his supporters.
This is the third Clinton general election campaign and they apparently have the biggest ground game in history.  The gut feelings come from all the negative media coverage she gets, but she's been buried under negative coverage this entire campaign and yet she still beat Bernie Sanders, who had excessively favorable and unchallenging coverage, by an enormous margin and did so apparently quite easily.

This. I feel the exact opposite. I feel she will begin doing even better in about 2-3 months.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

My gut feeling is that we're going to see the Clinton campaign do an imitation of a failed Space-X landing over the next 2-3 months. Like a bad driver sliding on ice, they're going to over-correct and otherwise do the exact opposite of what they need to. It'll be a flaming wreck moving at high speed by the end of August.

My gut on Trump (which hasn't exactly been reliable so far) is that something (tax records, mafia connection, prostitutes, his mental illness) is eventually going to give, and he will publicly implode into the failed joke he really already is. (But might still win against the wreckage of the HMS Hillary Clinton.)

[Lyin' Steve]

My gut feeling is that we're going to see the Clinton campaign do an imitation of a failed Space-X landing over the next 2-3 months. Like a bad driver sliding on ice, they're going to over-correct and otherwise do the exact opposite of what they need to. It'll be a flaming wreck moving at high speed by the end of August.

My gut on Trump (which hasn't exactly been reliable so far) is that something (tax records, mafia connection, prostitutes, his mental illness) is eventually going to give, and he will publicly implode into the failed joke he really already is. (But might still win against the wreckage of the HMS Hillary Clinton.)

When have the Clintons ever overcorrected?  The main criticism of Clinton is usually the opposite, that she's too much of a steady hand and unwilling to improvise or take risks.

[Lincoln Republican]

I base some of my reasoning on the fact Trump is campaigning as the outsider, whereas Hillary is establishment, and my feeling this election is this may just be one of those elections where voters really want to take it out on the establishment.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

It's early in the campaign I know, BUT..........

I have a gut feeling that the Hillary for President campaign is at the beginning of a slow, downhill trend, and will have ups and downs before the election, but will not recover before the election.

I kind of feel like the wheels are coming off her campaign.

It's just a gut feeling, not based on scientific trends at all.

And remember, I am not particularly a Trump fan.

Anyone have similar impressions?

Or if you have any gut feelings about any of the Presidential campaigns, what are they?

I, and I am sure others as well, would be interested to know.

That's just that indigestion:p kidding but my gut feeling is the opposite, Hillary will do what the other GOP candidates failed to do and that is take the Donald down.

[Ronnie]

I actually think Hillary's room for error is rather large.  Unless her campaign completely fails in all three of the following points, I think she will win by anywhere from Obama's 2012 victory margin to an epic landslide:

1) Ensure the convention goes smoothly and unites the party.  Offer as many concessions to Sanders and his delegates as they need to keep relatively quiet.  If she and the DNC are successful in this regard, her favorables will probably rise into the mid-forties.
2) Launch a multi-front scorched earth campaign that ensures the visceral negative feelings Trump provokes within ~50% of the voting electorate remain that way.
3) Bring out the Obama coalition to the polls.

[Frodo]

My gut feeling?  This election is ours.  We will win this thing in a walk so long as we don't get complacent. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even Tom Dewey would think that it's a spineless campaign playing it too "safe" to win.

[ProudModerate2]

No, I don't feel that way.
Hillary is still involved with "cleaning-up" for the Dem nomination, so a "low" for her, at this time, is somewhat normal.
I think by mid-June, we will have a better picture of the "current" situation.

[Virginiá]

Unless Hillary's campaign completely fails in all three of the following points, I think Hillary will win by anywhere from Obama's 2012 victory margin to an epic landslide:

1) Ensure the convention goes smoothly and unites the party.  Offer as many concessions to Sanders and his delegates as they need to keep relatively quiet.  If she and the DNC are successful in this regard, her favorables will probably rise into the mid-forties.
2) Launch a multi-front scorched earth campaign that ensures the visceral negative feelings Trump provokes within ~50% of the voting electorate remain that way.
3) Bring out the Obama coalition to the polls.

She has #2 and #3 pretty well-planned and well-funded, and the Republican party already appears to be failing at their ground game. However, I feel like #1 would be decently harder. Not sure that even Sanders, Warren or Obama can convince a huge amount to come around to Clinton. Sanders has embedded very clear and influential ideas in their heads: the party is rigged and Clinton is corrupt. Regardless if either is true or not, he made those allegations a staple of his campaign and riled up a lot of people. Clinton has numerous issues beyond most candidates. I'm sure she'll get lots of them back, but I can't help but feel like she'll lose more support than most other candidates would. Corruption is a powerful negative attribute.

[MK]

My gut feeling is that we're going to see the Clinton campaign do an imitation of a failed Space-X landing over the next 2-3 months. Like a bad driver sliding on ice, they're going to over-correct and otherwise do the exact opposite of what they need to. It'll be a flaming wreck moving at high speed by the end of August.

My gut on Trump (which hasn't exactly been reliable so far) is that something (tax records, mafia connection, prostitutes, his mental illness) is eventually going to give, and he will publicly implode into the failed joke he really already is. (But might still win against the wreckage of the HMS Hillary Clinton.)

If there was any of that I'm sure Bush or Cruz would have already found it. Hell the entire washington establishment was against him during the primary if they couldn't get a silver bullet what makes you think all of a sudden Hillary's folks can do better?    Heck in 2008 she couldn't even get nothing to take down Obama.

Really though Trump and a mafia connection would be great.   "Teflon Don"

[Ebowed]

I fluctuate on this a bit, not being enamored with either candidate of course but certainly hoping for a Democratic victory, I do feel the election is ours to lose.

My 'gut' is that Donald Trump is too much an idiot, too much of a risk, and has alienated enough people that he cannot recover.

But my gut is also telling me that Hillary Clinton has a remarkable capacity to blow it, due to her complacency and inability to properly read the electorate.  She is too secretive for her own good (I understand that she distrusts the press, but she does need to work on developing a better relationship with the media, honestly) and because she is really going to win this by sheer virtue of "not being Donald Trump", she has room for error, but it is not unlimited.

We will have to wait and see how the general election campaigns play out.  Neither candidate is perceived as honest or sincere, but Clinton has more room to 'pivot' than Trump, who is a clown, and could be provoked into making at least three or four contradictory statements just by discussing an issue on which he is uninformed - something that will happen numerous times over the coming months.  Clinton's biggest job is fixing the understanding that she is the "status quo" candidate.  She (and Obama) will need to admit that the economy is not perfect, that the standard of living has declined for people outside of the top incomes, and that people have every right to be upset after over 35 years of prioritizing defense and voodoo economics over entitlements and infrastructure, to put that in the simplest possible way.  But it looks like Clinton doesn't understand why she is going to win this election.  She is so determined to maintain the Order of Things that even universal health care is not likely to be a goal once elected; she is unwilling to tackle climate change by implementing a carbon tax; she has no plan to address systemic poverty; she wants to keep the death penalty and criminal penalties for cannabis.  She can differentiate herself from Trump, and prove him to be the 'establishment' candidate, if she runs on these sorts of ideas.  But the likelihood is that she will not.

[Hermit For Peace]

I have no doubt that Hillary is going to win. Trump is losing voters fast the more he talks, especially among females and minorities and certain religious groups. Wait until the debates between the two....people will see how dismally he comes across as Presidential compared to her. He can't just stand up there and trash talk and jive, he's going to need to offer substance -- something he's not big on right now.

And Bernie needs to get on board and show his crowd that Hillary can indeed beat Trump and that she is much better for the country than Trump could ever be. His fans need to stop fighting the inevitable and open their minds. Do they really want Trump to run the country? Or Hillary? They need to stop pouting and go out and vote for Hillary.

That's my gut talking.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I fluctuate on this a bit, not being enamored with either candidate of course but certainly hoping for a Democratic victory, I do feel the election is ours to lose.

My 'gut' is that Donald Trump is too much an idiot, too much of a risk, and has alienated enough people that he cannot recover.

But my gut is also telling me that Hillary Clinton has a remarkable capacity to blow it, due to her complacency and inability to properly read the electorate.  She is too secretive for her own good (I understand that she distrusts the press, but she does need to work on developing a better relationship with the media, honestly) and because she is really going to win this by sheer virtue of "not being Donald Trump", she has room for error, but it is not unlimited.

We will have to wait and see how the general election campaigns play out.  Neither candidate is perceived as honest or sincere, but Clinton has more room to 'pivot' than Trump, who is a clown, and could be provoked into making at least three or four contradictory statements just by discussing an issue on which he is uninformed - something that will happen numerous times over the coming months.  Clinton's biggest job is fixing the understanding that she is the "status quo" candidate.  She (and Obama) will need to admit that the economy is not perfect, that the standard of living has declined for people outside of the top incomes, and that people have every right to be upset after over 35 years of prioritizing defense and voodoo economics over entitlements and infrastructure, to put that in the simplest possible way.  But it looks like Clinton doesn't understand why she is going to win this election.  She is so determined to maintain the Order of Things that even universal health care is not likely to be a goal once elected; she is unwilling to tackle climate change by implementing a carbon tax; she has no plan to address systemic poverty; she wants to keep the death penalty and criminal penalties for cannabis.  She can differentiate herself from Trump, and prove him to be the 'establishment' candidate, if she runs on these sorts of ideas.  But the likelihood is that she will not.

According to Hillary, women can't be establishment. Her only anti-establishment appeals will be useless identity politics like that.

[Ebowed]

According to Hillary, women can't be establishment. Her only anti-establishment appeals will be useless identity politics like that.

I'm not a fan of the way she has employed identity politics - her statement that breaking up the banks wouldn't end sexism or racism was the height of tacky neoliberalism in one of the worst, most transparent diversions from the topic of wealth inequality I have yet seen, but I would be happy that, at the very least, her victory would signal to young women that politics is not just a man's world.  We need more women in politics.

[Ogre Mage]

Let's look at the fundamentals rather than political noise and "feelings" --

1.  President Obama's job approval is around 50% -- solid political territory for the woman who hopes to be his successor.

2.  There are no major red flags in the economic indicators.  Unemployment is around 5%, gas prices are low.  The economy isn't going great guns, but it is not bad -- and let us not forget that Obama inherited the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in 2009.

3.  Rather than trying to woo women and nonwhites, Donald Trump has completely alienated them and focused on white men with no college degree.  As Amy Walter points out, this demographic has been steadily shrinking.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9637

4.  Nonwhite voters were 28% of the electorate in 2012 and projected to be 30% this time.  Trump is going to lose them in a landslide.

5.  If you count up the states that Democrats have consistently won in all four of the last presidential elections (2000-2012), vs. all the states the GOP consistently won during that period, Democrats have a 242-180 advantage in the electoral college.  

Walter concludes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I feel just fine about Clinton's chances.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The fundamentals work for Clinton. And I think things will be fine for us.

[Blair]

Beware the ground game myth- before 2015 we heard for months here about how great the Labour ground game was, and how it would save us- long story short it didn't

[Dr. Arch]

Beware the ground game myth- before 2015 we heard for months here about how great the Labour ground game was, and how it would save us- long story short it didn't

Then again, the winning candidate wasn't blatantly unqualified and off his rocker.

[MK]

The fundamentals work for Clinton. And I think things will be fine for us.

I agree with that.

[Erc]

My gut feeling is that we're going to see the Clinton campaign do an imitation of a failed Space-X landing over the next 2-3 months. Like a bad driver sliding on ice, they're going to over-correct and otherwise do the exact opposite of what they need to. It'll be a flaming wreck moving at high speed by the end of August.

My gut on Trump (which hasn't exactly been reliable so far) is that something (tax records, mafia connection, prostitutes, his mental illness) is eventually going to give, and he will publicly implode into the failed joke he really already is. (But might still win against the wreckage of the HMS Hillary Clinton.)

If there was any of that I'm sure Bush or Cruz would have already found it. Hell the entire washington establishment was against him during the primary if they couldn't get a silver bullet what makes you think all of a sudden Hillary's folks can do better?    Heck in 2008 she couldn't even get nothing to take down Obama.

Really though Trump and a mafia connection would be great.   "Teflon Don"

There was a lot of talk a while back of how there was essentially no opposition research done on him during 2015 as nobody was taking him seriously; as a result there may still be plenty of time for stuff to come out.

Though, given the track record so far, I have no idea what could actually do him in, short of hard evidence of ritualistic killings or something.

[MK]

My gut feeling is that we're going to see the Clinton campaign do an imitation of a failed Space-X landing over the next 2-3 months. Like a bad driver sliding on ice, they're going to over-correct and otherwise do the exact opposite of what they need to. It'll be a flaming wreck moving at high speed by the end of August.

My gut on Trump (which hasn't exactly been reliable so far) is that something (tax records, mafia connection, prostitutes, his mental illness) is eventually going to give, and he will publicly implode into the failed joke he really already is. (But might still win against the wreckage of the HMS Hillary Clinton.)

If there was any of that I'm sure Bush or Cruz would have already found it. Hell the entire washington establishment was against him during the primary if they couldn't get a silver bullet what makes you think all of a sudden Hillary's folks can do better?    Heck in 2008 she couldn't even get nothing to take down Obama.

Really though Trump and a mafia connection would be great.   "Teflon Don"

There was a lot of talk a while back of how there was essentially no opposition research done on him during 2015 as nobody was taking him seriously; as a result there may still be plenty of time for stuff to come out.

If true then its political malpractice.   He lead in the polls from august 2015 on and at that point was really hammering Jeb (the supposed front runner).  I find it hard to believe that Jeb with all his organization and big donor $$ didnt dig up anything effective.

Even if Jeb missed the boat post Iowa/NH, you would think the anti-trump forces would have found these supposed bombshells headed into super-tuesday.   Heck if there was any why not get it out there before the north eastern primaries took place?   We would definitely be looking at a contested convention right now.     

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even Tom Dewey would think that it's a spineless campaign playing it too "safe" to win.

Tom Dewey got out Tom Deweyed.