OR-Clout Research: Clinton low energy; Oregon wants to make America great again

[Ebsy]

I just have StatesPoll on ignore, but sadly the rest of you quoting him forces me to read his posts.

[NOVA Green]

Yawn.  BTW, it looks like the primary pollster for "Clout Research" is Fritz Wenzel, of the awful, super R biased Wenzel Strategies, which produced gems like this in 2012:  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/wenzel-strategies-r-citizens-united-16430.

I do think Hillary can underperform Obama in Oregon, perhaps depending on the level of support Bernie gives to Hillary.  But she is no danger of losing the state except in an 7-10 point Trump landslide.

Absolutely agree that Oregon will not be a swing state in 2016, and that it would something like a Trump landslide to flip the state.... s**t the state hasn't voted Republican since 1984, even then it was only an 8 point Reagan win when he was winning 60-40!

My major concern is with the erosion of Democratic downstate support over the past few decades, and anyone that thinks that Obama style margins will continue in Multnomah County forever is living in a world of illusion when Metro-Portland only accounts for a little over 50% of the statewide vote.

That being said, I can easily see Hillary only winning Oregon 54-46 or 53-47 with a national win of 51-49 or 52-48.

[Eraserhead]

I wonder how much stronger Bernie is here...

[Seriously?]

Realignment or Clinton collapse?

Clout had Trump with a 2 point lead over Cruz in Indiana. Enough said.

Even I am not enough of a partisan hack to believe this. OR is the NJ of the West. You can't pump your own gas and every cycle, there's always one poll claiming it's going to be close.... then reality sets in.

[Seriously?]

Trump, has now surged ahead of Clinton in Oregon.

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf

what did I say? I said Oregon could be a swing state in 2016.

And I could have gone out with a supermodel tonight. Except I didn't.

If Oregon is a swing state, Trump has this thing wrapped up before the polls even close there on Election Night.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Garbage until proven otherwise. Even Monica Wehby led in a poll once.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well, Hillary did poll really terribly here in 2008 along with Colorado. I doubt Trump wins here but she won't win in a blowout like Obama.

[bumpercrop]

Hahaha total junk like the 2014 WEHBY IN THE LEAD! poll

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Oregon President by Other Source on 2016-05-13

Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Xing]

Wow, Trump really has such wide appeal, he's even making Oregon close! He must be a really cool guy, since those hipsters in Portland seem to like him a lot.

[Lachi]

Guys, this was also the polling company who said that the Indiana GOP Primary was going to be a dead heat...

http://cloutpolitical.com/new-poll-indiana-gop-contest-a-total-toss-up/

When in fact Trump won by 17 points

[ElectionsGuy]

It's happening...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237673.0

[President Johnson]

Hillary, you've been trumped.

[LLR]

Fixed title, junk poll, etc.

Is there any reason why you posted that three times?

Bad internet

[Gabagool102]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

[Fusionmunster]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

[Gabagool102]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

But when liberals were saying Utah will go for clinton based on polls from march it's ok?

[Fusionmunster]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

But when liberals were saying Utah will go for clinton based on polls from march it's ok?

I can only assume most posters were skeptical.

[StatesPoll]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

The Difference

1. Romney never took the leads in Connecticut(during whole year 2012)
Rasmussen(500 LV) October 7, 2012 Barack Obama    51%    Mitt Romney    45%        
it was his best Poll in CT. he was usually behind 15~20%ish to Obama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early/Mid_2012_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut


2. TRUMP beat Hillary with +2.2% Margins.
TRUMP 44.4% | Hillary 42.2%  (Oregon, 5/10-5/13, 657 RV)

[JerryArkansas]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

The Difference

1. Romney never took the leads in Connecticut(during whole year 2012)
Rasmussen(500 LV) October 7, 2012 Barack Obama    51%    Mitt Romney    45%        
it was his best Poll in CT. he was usually behind 15~20%ish to Obama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early/Mid_2012_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut


2. TRUMP beat Hillary with +2.2% Margins.
TRUMP 44.4% | Hillary 42.2%  (Oregon, 5/10-5/13, 657 RV)

Just like Romney won Michigan when according to a poll he was up by one.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120605055

Take your ignorant self out of here before you make a even bigger fool of yourself.

[Fusionmunster]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

The Difference

1. Romney never took the leads in Connecticut(during whole year 2012)
Rasmussen(500 LV) October 7, 2012 Barack Obama    51%    Mitt Romney    45%        
it was his best Poll in CT. he was usually behind 15~20%ish to Obama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early/Mid_2012_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut


2. TRUMP beat Hillary with +2.2% Margins.
TRUMP 44.4% | Hillary 42.2%  (Oregon, 5/10-5/13, 657 RV)

Romney was down 2 in Connecticut in a PPP poll.

[StatesPoll]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

The Difference

1. Romney never took the leads in Connecticut(during whole year 2012)
Rasmussen(500 LV) October 7, 2012 Barack Obama    51%    Mitt Romney    45%        
it was his best Poll in CT. he was usually behind 15~20%ish to Obama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early/Mid_2012_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut


2. TRUMP beat Hillary with +2.2% Margins.
TRUMP 44.4% | Hillary 42.2%  (Oregon, 5/10-5/13, 657 RV)

Romney was down 2 in Connecticut in a PPP poll.

ah this one

PPP (D)   9/22 - 9/25   592 RV   4.0   Obama   47    Romney   45   Obama +2

but he still didn't win!  (TRUMP won)
That's the difference.

[Mike Thick]

Liberals Right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YVrxFmheSc

Im not clicking the link but I assure you, a poll in May from a no name pollster with questionable connections is not making liberals lose sleep. Trump aint winning Oregon just like Romney wasnt winning Connecticut.

The Difference

1. Romney never took the leads in Connecticut(during whole year 2012)
Rasmussen(500 LV) October 7, 2012 Barack Obama    51%    Mitt Romney    45%        
it was his best Poll in CT. he was usually behind 15~20%ish to Obama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early/Mid_2012_statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Connecticut


2. TRUMP beat Hillary with +2.2% Margins.
TRUMP 44.4% | Hillary 42.2%  (Oregon, 5/10-5/13, 657 RV)

Romney was down 2 in Connecticut in a PPP poll.

ah this one

PPP (D)   9/22 - 9/25   592 RV   4.0   Obama   47    Romney   45   Obama +2

but he still didn't win!  (TRUMP won)
That's the difference.

No.

[IceSpear]

I see some posters have learned nothing from Overtime (which I just noticed is defunct.)

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Oregon President by Other Source on 2016-05-13

Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

If we keep adding junky fly by night partisan pollsters into the database, the map is going to look even more nonsensical than it already does.