Johnson: Over/Under Nader 2000?
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  Johnson: Over/Under Nader 2000?
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Poll
Question: See above
#1
Over (equal to or over 2.74%)
 
#2
Under (under 2.74%)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 81

Author Topic: Johnson: Over/Under Nader 2000?  (Read 870 times)
The Mikado
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« on: May 29, 2016, 05:43:50 PM »

I'm taking under.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2016, 05:50:34 PM »

I am going to be bold and predict 3% so over
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DKrol
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2016, 05:52:33 PM »

Over.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2016, 05:52:51 PM »

I am increasingly expecting the winner of the GE to end up with under 50% of the vote.  I'll say over.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2016, 05:53:31 PM »

Probably under, but I could see him going over.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2016, 05:56:33 PM »

I want to wait until Bill Kristol either puts up his dream neocon candidate, or stops agitating for one before I make a judgment on the Libertarian ticket's prospects.  I think he might just be blowing smoke, but I'm not sure.
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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2016, 06:04:45 PM »

Probably over.
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Angrie
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2016, 06:07:00 PM »

I expect the overall third party vote will be higher than Nader 2000. However, it will be split, with Johnson getting a higher vote than he did in 2012, but also with Stein getting a higher vote than she did in 2012 for the Greens. I guess there was Buchanan in 2000 as well though, and he did get at least some support.

Third party voting will be relatively high, except many people do still remember 2000, and that will make people a bit less likely to risk "throwing away" their vote.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2016, 06:17:33 PM »

Over. 3% sounds about right. Enough to swing the election towards Clinton.

I expect the overall third party vote will be higher than Nader 2000. However, it will be split, with Johnson getting a higher vote than he did in 2012, but also with Stein getting a higher vote than she did in 2012 for the Greens. I guess there was Buchanan in 2000 as well though, and he did get at least some support.

Third party voting will be relatively high, except many people do still remember 2000, and that will make people a bit less likely to risk "throwing away" their vote.

Total 3rd party percentage in 2000 was 3.75%, so 1.01% shared between Buchanan (0.43%), the Libertarians (0.36%), and others (0.22%).
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2016, 06:26:04 PM »

Almost certainly Johnson will get the best result ever for a Libertarian presidential candidate, but unless he can get a major funding source, it's doubtful he crack 2%, much less 2.74%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2016, 06:26:32 PM »

Under, probably around 1.5%.
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Angrie
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2016, 06:31:28 PM »

Total 3rd party percentage in 2000 was 3.75%, so 1.01% shared between Buchanan (0.43%), the Libertarians (0.36%), and others (0.22%).

I should have checked. I guess my memory of it is skewed towards Buchanan being a bit higher (between 1% and 2%) because of Palm Beach county FL.

With that revision, I think that both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are good for 2% each, with a reasonably good possibility of 3%-4% for Johnson.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2016, 06:35:39 PM »

Over.

Presuming Trump and Clinton are the nominees, but both continue on their present trajectories, they are going to be the most disliked pair of major party primary candidates in modern history, if not ever. Voting third party will be seen as a "clean" alternative by many voters.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2016, 07:17:06 PM »

Almost certainly Johnson will get the best result ever for a Libertarian presidential candidate, but unless he can get a major funding source, it's doubtful he crack 2%, much less 2.74%

I really see it as a question of media coverage moreso than money.  (Though, yes, of course, the two are related, and if Johnson had a huge pot of $, he could gain more media coverage.)  Nader broke through in media coverage in 2000, and the media actually talked about him as a (niche) third choice.  Saturday Night Live had jokes about Nader's run during the fall of 2000, and it's not like they had to stop and explain the fact that he was a 3rd party candidate for president or anything.  People knew that he was running.

Does Johnson break through in the media world enough that people will know who he is this time?  It's more likely than last time, but I'm still skeptical.  If Romney and Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson and other #NeverTrumpers actually endorsed him, then yes, he would start getting coverage.  But I don't see that happening.
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2016, 07:20:23 PM »

Over, sticking with my 5%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2016, 07:23:01 PM »

I think under but we'll see how much noise he makes.
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Higgs
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2016, 07:37:16 PM »

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Santander
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« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2016, 04:22:28 AM »

Almost certainly under, but I'm curious to see how many protest votes he gets. Nader in 2000 was much better known than Johnson, and any protest votes he got were from disaffected liberal Democrats. I could see Johnson pulling an O'Malley and getting some votes just because he has a white-sounding name that isn't Clinton/Trump from voters who have no idea who he is.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2016, 07:26:35 AM »

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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #19 on: May 30, 2016, 08:12:36 AM »

Almost certainly Johnson will get the best result ever for a Libertarian presidential candidate, but unless he can get a major funding source, it's doubtful he crack 2%, much less 2.74%
Don't count out that major funding source yet. However unlikely, the Kochs could still get in this game.

Or some their donor, of course.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: May 30, 2016, 08:32:06 AM »

About equal.
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LLR
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« Reply #21 on: May 30, 2016, 08:35:03 AM »

Slightly over, gonna say 3%
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« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2016, 09:24:49 AM »

Unless some surprise famous GOPer endorses him or he somehow manages to get into a debate, just under - although I expect him to poll pretty well.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2016, 10:00:58 AM »

Under. Maybe by a lot.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2016, 02:56:24 PM »

*bump*

Looks like it was over.

Yes, he declined significantly in the polls over the last couple of months, but his polling average going into election day was ~4-5%, and he ended up getting just over 3%.  So the idea that a few folks were pushing just a few weeks ago that he'd massively underperform even his late polls on election day itself and get something close to his '12 numbers was wrong.  Also, the idea that because he was at 0-1% in polls of the early vote, that that's what he would do on election day was wrong.
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