Johnson: Over/Under Nader 2000?

[Mr. Morden]

Almost certainly Johnson will get the best result ever for a Libertarian presidential candidate, but unless he can get a major funding source, it's doubtful he crack 2%, much less 2.74%

I really see it as a question of media coverage moreso than money.  (Though, yes, of course, the two are related, and if Johnson had a huge pot of $, he could gain more media coverage.)  Nader broke through in media coverage in 2000, and the media actually talked about him as a (niche) third choice.  Saturday Night Live had jokes about Nader's run during the fall of 2000, and it's not like they had to stop and explain the fact that he was a 3rd party candidate for president or anything.  People knew that he was running.

Does Johnson break through in the media world enough that people will know who he is this time?  It's more likely than last time, but I'm still skeptical.  If Romney and Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson and other #NeverTrumpers actually endorsed him, then yes, he would start getting coverage.  But I don't see that happening.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Looks like it was over.

Yes, he declined significantly in the polls over the last couple of months, but his polling average going into election day was ~4-5%, and he ended up getting just over 3%.  So the idea that a few folks were pushing just a few weeks ago that he'd massively underperform even his late polls on election day itself and get something close to his '12 numbers was wrong.  Also, the idea that because he was at 0-1% in polls of the early vote, that that's what he would do on election day was wrong.

[Mr. Morden]

Gary Johnson wouldn't get more than 1% of the vote in any state except New Mexico.

2% at best nationwide; 5% at best in any state.  In likeliness, around 1% nationwide and 2% in his best state.

If Johnson: .8% - 1.1%
If Petersen: .5% - .8%
If McAfee: .5% - 1%
If Perry: .3% - .5%

Johnson will almost certainly be the nominee and will probably underperform his 2012 result.

The most I think Johnson/Weld could possibly get is 2%, and that's with David Koch accidentally shelling out a few million to help them out.

2.5% max.