Johnson: Over/Under Nader 2000?

[Angrie]

I expect the overall third party vote will be higher than Nader 2000. However, it will be split, with Johnson getting a higher vote than he did in 2012, but also with Stein getting a higher vote than she did in 2012 for the Greens. I guess there was Buchanan in 2000 as well though, and he did get at least some support.

Third party voting will be relatively high, except many people do still remember 2000, and that will make people a bit less likely to risk "throwing away" their vote.

[Angrie]

Total 3rd party percentage in 2000 was 3.75%, so 1.01% shared between Buchanan (0.43%), the Libertarians (0.36%), and others (0.22%).

I should have checked. I guess my memory of it is skewed towards Buchanan being a bit higher (between 1% and 2%) because of Palm Beach county FL.

With that revision, I think that both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are good for 2% each, with a reasonably good possibility of 3%-4% for Johnson.