What State do you think Johnson/Weld has the best chance of winning?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is it.

This is the year that the Libertarians become a 'major party.' (or so Johnson tells us)

To quote another libertarian who ran in a different party: "It's happening!"

So... where does the revolution start?

Note: you do not actually need to think that the Libs will win a state, just where do you think that, if they DID win a state, it would happen?

[ElectionsGuy]

All the mountain west states, Utah definitely this year.

[rpryor03]

Utah. New Mexico.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

New Mexico, duh.

[LLR]

1. Utah
2. Alaska
3. Maine
4. New Mexico
5. Kansas/Idaho

[kyc0705]

Alaska, Utah, or New Mexico, in that order.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Agreed except Utah. Why would you refrain from voting for one pro-choice slate to elect another pro-choice slate?

I just expect ludicrously low turnout in Utah.

My personal bet is CO.  Trump will take the True Reaganites in CO Springs, Clinton the growing Latino communities in the south and Progressives in Boulder/Denver.  

Libs take from both sides, with the actual Colorado libertarians in CO springs,  plus some libertarian minded moderate Dems and Progs.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Alaska or Utah.

Also, inb4 the "none of them, libertarians are dumb hur hur" trolls

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, New Mexico in that order.

[BuckeyeNut]

In no order other than alphabetical: Alaska, Idaho, Utah.

[sparkey]

I put this together a month ago, which should help guess:

Top 10 LP states in 2012:
1. New Mexico 3.55%
2. Montana 2.93%
3. Alaska 2.46%
4. Wyoming 2.14%
5. Indiana 1.91%
6. Kansas 1.76%
7. North Dakota 1.62%
8. South Dakota 1.59%
9. Missouri 1.56%
10. Arkansas 1.52%

Bottom 5 LP states in 2012 where we were on the ballot (no ballot access in MI and OK):
5. New York 0.67%
4. Alabama 0.59%
3. New Jersey 0.58%
2. Florida 0.53%
1. Mississippi 0.52%

Best 5 states in 2008 were: Indiana, Georgia, Utah, Texas, Wyoming.
Best 5 states in 2004 were: Indiana, Idaho, Illinois, Arizona, Georgia.
Best 5 states in 2000 were: Georgia, Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Idaho.
Best 5 states in 1996 were: Arizona, Nevada, Alaska, New Hampshire, Colorado.
Best 5 states in 1992 were: New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Arizona, California.
Best 5 states in 1988 were: Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Kansas, Oregon.

States that appear in top 5s multiple times since 1988: Alaska (5), Indiana (4), Arizona (3), Colorado (3), Georgia (3), Idaho (3), Montana (2), New Hampshire (2), Wyoming (2).

I believe the best LP result ever was the 11.66% in Alaska in 1980, which was admittedly greatly assisted by Kochbucks.

[DKrol]

1. Alaska
2. Maine
3. Utah
4. Idaho
5. New Mexico
6. Montana
7. Wyoming
8. Missouri
9. Arkansas
10. Indiana

[YaBoyNY]

None because Lolbertarians are a joke.

[Vosem]

Unfortunately, I don't think he'll actually win anywhere, but Utah is his best shot. New Mexico, Colorado, and Alaska are other possibilities.

New Mexico isn't the same state it was when it elected Johnson, and he only got 3.55% there in 2012.

Johnson 2016 looks like a much stronger effort than Johnson 2012 though, and New Mexico hasn't changed that much; voting patterns have changed more than demographics, in light of the Republican Party's collapse with Latinos over the last 10 years. It went from 42% to 46% Hispanic origin from 2000 to 2010, and from 67% to 68% white overall (which suggests lots of the new Hispanics are white Hispanics, who once upon a time were likelier to vote Republican).

[nicholas.slaydon]

Montana? Wyoming? South Dakota?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

my guess is WY, but the chance of it happening is very low.

[RI]

Toss-up between Delusion and Denial.

[RaphaelDLG]

Obviously they have zero chance of winning any state, but if I were them I would try to win statewide races in Wyoming and Idaho first.

In those two states, the percentage of the Democratic vote is roughly only a third of the voting population, so they could presumably win just by getting a plurality of the Republican (right-wing) vote before they even got any left-wing votes.

There's a similar situation in Utah and Nebraska's 2nd, but those states are too socially conservative and not amenable enough to the libertarian message.

[Mr. Illini]

Also, inb4 the "none of them, libertarians are dumb hur hur" trolls

Would you like to place a monetary bet on a Libertarian victory in any state this November?

[Kingpoleon]

Also, inb4 the "none of them, libertarians are dumb hur hur" trolls

Would you like to place a monetary bet on a Libertarian victory in any state this November?

No, he's mocking the "anti-libertarians," who are like AlwaysBernie in argumentative tactics.

1. Alaska
2. Wyoming/Utah
3. Idaho
4. New Mexico
5. Nevada
6. Montana

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Just to keep everyone on task, I will quote my OP:

"Note: you do not actually need to think that the Libs will win a state, just where do you think that, if they DID win a state, it would happen?"

[Hnv1]

To win  a state they'll need at least 33% can't really see that happening. but they could get close to 20% in Alaska and Montana and get some nice numbers all around (bar for the south). I predict also 3.5-4% national vote if they run a good campaign and not only take angry GOPers but also tail some "I don't like her" Dems

[IceSpear]

none of them, libertarians are dumb hur hur

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I guess Alaska could, but they'd be pretty stupid too. They're essentially dependent on government funding up there.

[IceSpear]

I guess Alaska could, but they'd be pretty stupid too. They're essentially dependent on government funding up there.

It is pretty ironic that Alaska is one of the most libertarian states, considering that little factoid.