SD-Targeted Persuasion: Clinton +3

[Xing]

Also, FWIW, Benchmark is predicting Sanders will win 57-43.

[Eraserhead]

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

New Mexico will be a closed primary where almost half the voters will be minorities. I don't see how it will be close unless the state's Hispanics vote radically different compared to those in Texas and Arizona.

Keep in mind that Obama lost hispanics in New Mexico by 62%-36% in 2008 and still basically tied Clinton. I expect Clinton to win but it'll probably be within single digits.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, FWIW, Benchmark is predicting Sanders will win 57-43.

Oh yes, them. The ones who predicted Clinton would win Rhode Island.

[Xing]

Also, FWIW, Benchmark is predicting Sanders will win 57-43.

Oh yes, them. The ones who predicted Clinton would win Rhode Island.

Well, if they're off by the same amount here, that would either mean Sanders winning by 1 or 27.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

New Mexico will be a closed primary where almost half the voters will be minorities. I don't see how it will be close unless the state's Hispanics vote radically different compared to those in Texas and Arizona.

Keep in mind that Obama lost hispanics in New Mexico by 62%-36% in 2008 and still basically tied Clinton. I expect Clinton to win but it'll probably be within single digits.

That wasn't a primary.

[Eraserhead]

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

New Mexico will be a closed primary where almost half the voters will be minorities. I don't see how it will be close unless the state's Hispanics vote radically different compared to those in Texas and Arizona.

Keep in mind that Obama lost hispanics in New Mexico by 62%-36% in 2008 and still basically tied Clinton. I expect Clinton to win but it'll probably be within single digits.

That wasn't a primary.

It was labeled by some as a caucus but the actual format was that of a closed primary. Even Leip lists it as a primary.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=35&f=0&off=0&elect=1

[Fusionmunster]

We are not worthy.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/740355844353593345

SABATO Crystal Ball predicted a Clinton win too.

[Ebsy]

Gold standard in South Dakota I guess?

[dspNY]

Wow, they nailed it!

[Xing]

I hope that they release a GE poll in SD, and show Clinton up by 3.

[IceSpear]

Here are all of their other polls: http://www.targetedpersuasionpolls.com/#!public-polls/szoo1

They've only done 5 other states, but they've gotten the right candidate all 5 times (Sanders in Indiana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia and Clinton in Kentucky and Connecticut).

Looks like we may have a good new pollster on our hands. Very impressive.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Better than Quinnipiac.