Will the top two in California's Senate race be two Democrats?

[ElectionsGuy]

Its honestly kind of sad that it's come down to this. I vote yes, reluctantly, hoping the polls are wrong.

And if no, who will they be?

[publicunofficial]

Yes

The only sad thing is that I won't get to see an R get blown out by 20+ points.

[smoltchanov]

Yes. And i don't see any problems with it: even to have a chance for decent November 8th Republucans must run one well-known candidate, not 3 (in reality - more) "some dudes"...

[The Last Northerner]

Pretty much. The GOP shouldn't have ran so many candidates (if they could) - that way, they have some (R) lose against Harris instead.

[smoltchanov]

Well, in fact it still could make some sense. Sanchez is slightly better from Republican point of view then Harris. Very slightly, but still - better. And Sanchez will have a chance in November (contrary to almost any Republican candidate).. Similar to Honda - Khanna situation in CA-17...

[Maxwell]

Pretty much. The GOP shouldn't have ran so many candidates (if they could) - that way, they have some (R) lose against Harris instead.

All the R's in the race are nobodies. They really had nobody to run this year.

[Kingpoleon]

Pretty much. The GOP shouldn't have ran so many candidates (if they could) - that way, they have some (R) lose against Harris instead.

All the R's in the race are nobodies. They really had nobody to run this year.

If they could have recruited Condoleezza Rice...

[Maxwell]

Pretty much. The GOP shouldn't have ran so many candidates (if they could) - that way, they have some (R) lose against Harris instead.

All the R's in the race are nobodies. They really had nobody to run this year.

If they could have recruited Condoleezza Rice...

Yeah, if only they could've recruited a carpet bagger from ALABAMA, among those responsible for the single biggest Republican disaster in the last few decades, and not really in touch with California pubs. It'd go about as well as Neel Kashkari's bid in Cali did.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes, unfortunately. This primary system is horrible. In 2018, we’ll end up with a (November) governor’s race between Newsom and Chiang.

[Santander]

Yeah, if only they could've recruited a carpet bagger from ALABAMA, among those responsible for the single biggest Republican disaster in the last few decades, and not really in touch with California pubs. It'd go about as well as Neel Kashkari's bid in Cali did.

25+ years in California and she's still a carpetbagger?

[Maxwell]

Yeah, if only they could've recruited a carpet bagger from ALABAMA, among those responsible for the single biggest Republican disaster in the last few decades, and not really in touch with California pubs. It'd go about as well as Neel Kashkari's bid in Cali did.

25+ years in California and she's still a carpetbagger?

Has she really been in Cali 25+ years? that small part of my critique of why she's super overrated withdrawn.

[Santander]

Yeah, if only they could've recruited a carpet bagger from ALABAMA, among those responsible for the single biggest Republican disaster in the last few decades, and not really in touch with California pubs. It'd go about as well as Neel Kashkari's bid in Cali did.

25+ years in California and she's still a carpetbagger?

Has she really been in Cali 25+ years? that small part of my critique of why she's super overrated withdrawn.

She's been at Stanford in one capacity or another since the early 80s, interrupted by her service in the Bush administration.

[Nyvin]

Yep,  I saw this happening way back.   

[Mike Thick]

Yep. I wish Chavez had stayed in, but even a half-decent candidate might not have been able to prevent this.

[Maxwell]

Yep. I wish Chavez has stayed in, but even a half-decent candidate might not have been able to prevent this.

Chavez with a half decent fundraising operation might've been a solid "sacrificial lamb"

[Heisenberg]

Yep. I wish Chavez has stayed in, but even a half-decent candidate might not have been able to prevent this.

Chavez with a half decent fundraising operation might've been a solid "sacrificial lamb"

I agree. Chavez would've been competitive for the second spot (against Harris) and seems like he would have consolidated the Republican vote, but obviously would have still lost to Harris. He decided to run for reelection for his seat in the state assembly, I believe. I'm concerned that a D vs D Senate race, combined with Presidential race turnout and Trump on top of the ballot will sink a lot of Republican House of Representatives candidates in California, but oh well. The NRCC should just write off California, except for maybe district 7.

[smoltchanov]

^ In Presidential year Republican candidates would mostly play defence in any case in California. Trump's candidacy only exaggerate situation. Luckily for them - Republicans lost almost all swingy districts in California before (like 36th, 52th and some other), so - they will not lose too much this year. In House i can imagine them having tough elections only in 10th, 21th and 25th, and, most likely, they will not lose more then 1 of them (Democratic candidates in these districts are far from being very strong)...

[Bojack Horseman]

After watching some of the California Senate debate, I've switched my endorsement from Sanchez to Harris. Loretta Sanchez may be a less slimy politician, but she has the verbal skills and eloquence of Sarah Palin.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

After watching some of the California Senate debate, I've switched my endorsement from Sanchez to Harris. Loretta Sanchez may be a less slimy politician, but she has the verbal skills and eloquence of Sarah Palin.

"Whoop! Whoop! Whoop!"

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/harris-662097-sanchez-american.html

[publicunofficial]

^ In Presidential year Republican candidates would mostly play defence in any case in California. Trump's candidacy only exaggerate situation. Luckily for them - Republicans lost almost all swingy districts in California before (like 36th, 52th and some other), so - they will not lose too much this year. In House i can imagine them having tough elections only in 10th, 21th and 25th, and, most likely, they will not lose more then 1 of them (Democratic candidates in these districts are far from being very strong)...

I think Emilio Huerta in CA-21 has the potential to be a very strong challenger, and either of the two Democrats in CA-25 could be contenders if given enough money. Michael Eggman in CA-10 is the one candidate I have serious doubts with, and I wish Jose Hernandez would give it another shot.

Should a localized wave hit California, I also think Ed Royce in CA-39 could be in trouble.

[smoltchanov]

^ In Presidential year Republican candidates would mostly play defence in any case in California. Trump's candidacy only exaggerate situation. Luckily for them - Republicans lost almost all swingy districts in California before (like 36th, 52th and some other), so - they will not lose too much this year. In House i can imagine them having tough elections only in 10th, 21th and 25th, and, most likely, they will not lose more then 1 of them (Democratic candidates in these districts are far from being very strong)...

I think Emilio Huerta in CA-21 has the potential to be a very strong challenger, and either of the two Democrats in CA-25 could be contenders if given enough money. Michael Eggman in CA-10 is the one candidate I have serious doubts with, and I wish Jose Hernandez would give it another shot.

Should a localized wave hit California, I also think Ed Royce in CA-39 could be in trouble.

Frankly speaking - i have doubts. But - we shall see

[publicunofficial]

^ In Presidential year Republican candidates would mostly play defence in any case in California. Trump's candidacy only exaggerate situation. Luckily for them - Republicans lost almost all swingy districts in California before (like 36th, 52th and some other), so - they will not lose too much this year. In House i can imagine them having tough elections only in 10th, 21th and 25th, and, most likely, they will not lose more then 1 of them (Democratic candidates in these districts are far from being very strong)...

I think Emilio Huerta in CA-21 has the potential to be a very strong challenger, and either of the two Democrats in CA-25 could be contenders if given enough money. Michael Eggman in CA-10 is the one candidate I have serious doubts with, and I wish Jose Hernandez would give it another shot.

Should a localized wave hit California, I also think Ed Royce in CA-39 could be in trouble.

Frankly speaking - i have doubts. But - we shall see

My reasons:

-Romney only won CA-39 50-47, only a point better than his 49-47 margin in CA-25 which is agreed to be competitive.

-The district has a large and growing Hispanic population, as well as a large (29%) Asian population. If Asians and Hispanics are shifting heavily to the Democrats this election, and Hispanic turnout surges due to Trump, this could be competitive really fast. Especially if, as many on this forum predict, Trump loses Orange County.

-In 2012, Democrats unexpectedly won an Assembly seat in the area with similar demographics and party affiliation with an underfunded challenger against an incumbent Republican.

-Royce's challenger in 2012, Jay Chen, severely lacked in fundraising and had campaign ethics issues

-Democrats have a potentially decent opponent in former Brea Mayor Brett Murdock.

[smoltchanov]

^ Agree with all argumentation, but too many "if's" "If" Asians and Hispanics will really shift in big numbers AND "if" they will turn out in great numbers. "If" Trump loses Orange country. And so on. Don't forget - Clinton is second most unpopular presidential candidate in many years. Yes. we know who is first, but still - ... (personally - i would vote for Clinton in this election, but - only barely. after giving serious consideration to Johnson - Weld ticket)

[Suburbia]

Yes. But I think that Harris will win by 6-10 points in November. Kevin Faulconer, the San Diego mayor should have ran for this Senate seat in 2016. He may run for governor in 2018 however.