Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed

[Adam Griffin]

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And it's not being driven by any one ethnicity in particular: all major AAPI groups are trending Democratic, and fast. Even Vietnamese voters are now a leaning Democratic group.



Obama is roughly 10 points more popular among Asians than he was in 2012; Clinton is more popular than Obama was then; Trump is 10 points less popular among Asians than Romney was four years ago.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

[Santander]

People don't think about it but illegal immigration is a major problem with Asians, not just Hispanics. Not surprising to see them vote for open borders.

[Dr. Arch]

That ID swing is pretty huge.

[Sbane]

People don't think about it but illegal immigration is a major problem with Asians, not just Hispanics. Not surprising to see them vote for open borders.

Any data to back this up?

Also, it's not surprising that Asian groups that have tended to vote Republican like Filipinos and especially the Vietnamese, are the ones swinging the most. I doubt Trump wins Orange County, CA at this rate. Has similar movement within Cubans been recorded as well?

[Xing]

Yeah, immigration is definitely an important issue to many Asians. Trump's message can't be appealing to that many of them.

[Matty]

Or this could just be old ones dying off that were more conservative, maybe?

In any case, this isn't a big deal electorally. Asian are largely confined to california, Hawaii, and the pacific NW, and some big cities like NY.

[StatesPoll]

Wrrrrrong!

California: TRUMP vs Hillary. SurveyUSA 5/19-5/22. 1383 LV.

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

TRUMP 38% | Hillary 52% (Page 5) Total 1383 LV.

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%

[Adam Griffin]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

You're having a hard time tonight.

People don't think about it but illegal immigration is a major problem with Asians, not just Hispanics. Not surprising to see them vote for open borders.

Any data to back this up?

It's worth noting that while illegal immigration from Mexico has been effectively flat for the better part of a decade, Asian immigration has exploded both in terms of legal immigration and otherwise. Asians have now surpassed Mexicans in terms of immigrants, at 36% and 31% respectively (I am unsure whether this a measurement of legal immigration alone or all immigration), and according to 538, those who have been residents of the US for less than one year been outpacing Latinos at-large since 2008.

[Matty]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

You're having a hard time tonight.

People don't think about it but illegal immigration is a major problem with Asians, not just Hispanics. Not surprising to see them vote for open borders.

Any data to back this up?

It's worth noting that while illegal immigration from Mexico has been effectively flat for the better part of a decade, Asian immigration has exploded both in terms of legal immigration and otherwise. Asians have now surpassed Mexicans in terms of immigrants, at 36% and 31% respectively (I am unsure whether this a measurement of legal immigration alone or all immigration), and according to 538, those who have been residents of the US for less than one year been outpacing Latinos at-large since 2008.

Why do you confine your demographic analyses that you present to us (which  I very much appreciate) to non-whites?

[Adam Griffin]

Wrrrrrong!

California: TRUMP vs Hillary. SurveyUSA 5/19-5/22. 1383 LV.

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

TRUMP 38% | Hillary 52% (Page 5) Total 1383 LV.

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%

Yes...because a s[inks]tty and small sample that is 15% Asian in one state - in one poll - is a better indicator of the situation than a detailed national survey dedicated to studying and surveying accurately the group it is measuring. That's like making the argument that national poll from Rasmussen that shows a given number for Latinos is a better indicator of the situation than a poll from Latino Decisions.

[Adam Griffin]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

You're having a hard time tonight.

People don't think about it but illegal immigration is a major problem with Asians, not just Hispanics. Not surprising to see them vote for open borders.

Any data to back this up?

It's worth noting that while illegal immigration from Mexico has been effectively flat for the better part of a decade, Asian immigration has exploded both in terms of legal immigration and otherwise. Asians have now surpassed Mexicans in terms of immigrants, at 36% and 31% respectively (I am unsure whether this a measurement of legal immigration alone or all immigration), and according to 538, those who have been residents of the US for less than one year been outpacing Latinos at-large since 2008.

Why do you confine your demographic analyses that you present to us (which  I very much appreciate) to non-whites?

I'm not sure that I do...but if that's the case, then it probably has something to do with the fact that whites are much less monolithic in their voting patterns from state to state, and therefore make it more difficult and less meaningful to assess. However, whites as a national voting bloc are quite inelastic and arguably at least as predictable as any other racial group on balance; it's just a matter of which pieces of the puzzle change in each election and by how much to produce fairly predictable results.

[Xing]

While a great number of Asians live on the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast, there are some competitive states with non-negligible Asian populations, like NV, CO, and VA, and Trump losing Asians by a wider margin than Romney could make Alaska more interesting.

[Wisconsin+17]

Interesting article. Unfortunately this impacts states that aren't competitive. Unlike Hispanics in FL and TX.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Hang on a sec,

I thought the North Koreans really liked him.

[muon2]

Let's look at this graph more carefully.



In 2012 it shows about 46% Dem, 24% Pub and 30% independent. The 2012 result was 67% Dem among Asians/Other, so that says about 70% of the self-described independent Asian vote went Dem.

For 2016 the graph shows about 62% Dem, still 24% Pub, but only 14% independent. The self-described independents from 2012 are now committing to the Dems in a way that reflects their actual voting behavior. A 67% Dem vote in Nov 2016 just as in 2012 would be consistent with the remaining pool of independents. If the remaining independents still broke 70% for the Dems the 2016 vote would rise to 72% Dem. Reality is probably somewhere in between those two points, perhaps like 70% Asians for the Dems.

[Ljube]

Trump might really do better with Hispanics than with Asians in the end. Also, this:

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

[Virginiá]

Wrrrrrong!

California: TRUMP vs Hillary. SurveyUSA 5/19-5/22. 1383 LV.

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

TRUMP 38% | Hillary 52% (Page 5) Total 1383 LV.

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%

Yes...because a s[inks]tty and small sample that is 15% Asian in one state - in one poll - is a better indicator of the situation than a detailed national survey dedicated to studying and surveying accurately the group it is measuring. That's like making the argument that national poll from Rasmussen that shows a given number for Latinos is a better indicator of the situation than a poll from Latino Decisions.

To be fair, this type of behavior is the essence of StatesPoll's being: Create a narrative and then cherry pick polls that help confirm said narrative while discarding any that cast doubt.

[LLR]

He can't alienate so many demographics and expect to beat HILLARY!

SOUTH CAROLINA will carry her to victory in November!

[Nyvin]

Let's look at this graph more carefully.



In 2012 it shows about 46% Dem, 24% Pub and 30% independent. The 2012 result was 67% Dem among Asians/Other, so that says about 70% of the self-described independent Asian vote went Dem.

For 2016 the graph shows about 62% Dem, still 24% Pub, but only 14% independent. The self-described independents from 2012 are now committing to the Dems in a way that reflects their actual voting behavior. A 67% Dem vote in Nov 2016 just as in 2012 would be consistent with the remaining pool of independents. If the remaining independents still broke 70% for the Dems the 2016 vote would rise to 72% Dem. Reality is probably somewhere in between those two points, perhaps like 70% Asians for the Dems.

This is probably true.    There is going to be "some" movement toward the Dems due to Trump, but probably not double digits worth like the graph suggests.

If anything this shows that the days of the Asian vote being considered "swing" are pretty much over.   That's the more important aspect to take from it.

[TDAS04]

I wonder if a majority of Vietnamese Americans will vote Democratic for the first time this year. 

[Seriously?]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

This is much ado about nothing. Not just that, Asians make up what? 2-3% of the voting electorate? Does this really matter much?

There are seven states where Asians comprise of 5%+ of Asian voting-eligible population.

Alaska is the only Republican state. (not going anywhere).

Nevada is the only tossup state where the Asian vote may make a difference.

The other states: CA, NJ, NY, HI and WA, barring a major catastrophe by Hillary!, are going Democrat anyway.

[Ogre Mage]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

This is much ado about nothing. Not just that, Asians make up what? 2-3% of the voting electorate? Does this really matter much?

There are seven states where Asians comprise of 5%+ of Asian voting-eligible population.

Alaska is the only Republican state. (not going anywhere).

Nevada is the only tossup state where the Asian vote may make a difference.

The other states: CA, NJ, NY, HI and WA, barring a major catastrophe by Hillary!, are going Democrat anyway.

Asians are also 5%+ of the population in swing-state Virginia, primarily concentrated in Northern VA.

But the problem for the Republican Party is less the Asian vote in isolation and more the aggregate effect.  Black, Latino, Asian, LGBT and Jewish voters were about 33% of the electorate in 2012 and Democrats won them by overwhelming margins.  In 2016, the total sum of these voters is likely to be around 36% of the electorate, as the Latino, Asian and LGBT demographics have been growing.  

The Republican Party has not done anything to repair relations with these groups since 2012 and in most cases the GOP image has become much worse.  Only doing well with straight white Christian voters with no college degree is not a recipe for success at the presidential level.

[Mr. Morden]

In 2016, the total sum of these voters is likely to be around 36% of the electorate, as the Latino, Asian and LGBT demographics have been growing. 

Has the LGBT demographic actually experienced significant growth?  Do you simply mean that previously closeted individuals have been more like to come out, or something else?

[Ogre Mage]

In 2016, the total sum of these voters is likely to be around 36% of the electorate, as the Latino, Asian and LGBT demographics have been growing.  

Has the LGBT demographic actually experienced significant growth?  Do you simply mean that previously closeted individuals have been more like to come out, or something else?

That is a difficult question to answer.  An increasing number of people are publicly identifying as LGBT.  Is the LGBT population actually increasing or are people just more willing to self-identify due to a more LGBT-friendly society?  I don't know.  But Millennials self-identify as LGBT at a considerably higher rate than any other age demographic.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/31/millennials-are-the-gayest-generation.html


A study by the General Society Survey shows that the number of Americans having a same-sex experience is on the rise.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2016/06/01/study-same-sex-experiences-are-on-the-rise-and-americans-are-increasingly-chill-about-it/