Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed

[Seriously?]

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.

This is much ado about nothing. Not just that, Asians make up what? 2-3% of the voting electorate? Does this really matter much?

There are seven states where Asians comprise of 5%+ of Asian voting-eligible population.

Alaska is the only Republican state. (not going anywhere).

Nevada is the only tossup state where the Asian vote may make a difference.

The other states: CA, NJ, NY, HI and WA, barring a major catastrophe by Hillary!, are going Democrat anyway.

Asians are also 5%+ of the population in swing-state Virginia, primarily concentrated in Northern VA.

But the problem for the Republican Party is less the Asian vote in isolation and more the aggregate effect.  Black, Latino, Asian, LGBT and Jewish voters were about 33% of the electorate in 2012 and Democrats won them by overwhelming margins.  In 2016, the total sum of these voters is likely to be around 36% of the electorate, as the Latino, Asian and LGBT demographics have been growing.  

The Republican Party has not done anything to repair relations with these groups since 2012 and in most cases the GOP image has become much worse.  Only doing well with straight white Christian voters with no college degree is not a recipe for success at the presidential level.

Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.

[Wisconsin+17]

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This. The only minority demographic that matters are Hispanics because of Arizona and Texas. That is all. All the rest are so solidly democrat and in democrat held areas, that there's really little point in courting them.

[Wisconsin+17]

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If they voted like black people do, what would the election result be like?

531-7.

[Angrie]

Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.

Yes, except for the fact that VA is likely to be one of the closest/tipping point states. So anything that shifts the margins, even a fraction of percentage points, has a disproportionate impact on the overall electoral college outcome. That's true whether it's the Asian vote or McAuliffe's reforms to felon disenfranchisement.

[Seriously?]

Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.

Yes, except for the fact that VA is likely to be one of the closest/tipping point states. So anything that shifts the margins, even a fraction of percentage points, has a disproportionate impact on the overall electoral college outcome. That's true whether it's the Asian vote or McAuliffe's reforms to felon disenfranchisement.

At the end of the day, if the Dems are lucky, you're probably talking between 10K and 20K of a total vote shift. And if you look at that study to begin with, it seems like the Asian number voting Republican will between 20-35%. The rest of the "shift" is Indies identifying with the Democrats. Too much is being made about a voting block that's really too small to make that much of an impact.

[Virginiá]

Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.

Yes, except for the fact that VA is likely to be one of the closest/tipping point states. So anything that shifts the margins, even a fraction of percentage points, has a disproportionate impact on the overall electoral college outcome. That's true whether it's the Asian vote or McAuliffe's reforms to felon disenfranchisement.

At the end of the day, if the Dems are lucky, you're probably talking between 10K and 20K of a total vote shift. And if you look at that study to begin with, it seems like the Asian number voting Republican will between 20-35%. The rest of the "shift" is Indies identifying with the Democrats. Too much is being made about a voting block that's really too small to make that much of an impact.

See, in the context of this one election, what you're saying makes sense, but when I look at it, I see long-term consequences and these numbers are just a manifestation of the GOP's inability to bring in new voters to replace the ones they are losing (strongly Republican silent generation voters). Republicans have lost almost the entire non-white vote at this point, and contrary to what 2012 may suggest, they haven't made enough progress with whites (their only real base) to make up for the losses they are incurring due to non-white voter growth and more Democratic Millennials taking up more and more of the electorate. You guys are getting gutted and it's like your party is indifferent or incapable of addressing this.

Just another demographic that looks to be voting 70%+ Democratic and likely very difficult for Republicans to claw back support from. This adds up when put together with other groups.

[All Along The Watchtower]

People don't think about it but illegal immigration is a major problem with Asians, not just Hispanics. Not surprising to see them vote for open borders.

I know this may be hard for you to grasp but Asians aren't white.

[Dutch Conservative]

He can't alienate so many demographics and expect to beat HILLARY!

SOUTH CAROLINA will carry her to victory in November!

Yesterday I read on this same forum that party identification doesnt matter that much (when Ohio was discussed). Appearently today it does matter. So things can change pretty quick. Let that be a warning for all those folks that declare victory. It is only June.

Sean Trende have explained multiple times that Trump can win by a slight increase of the white vote. I think the minority isn't his major problem, certainly not the Asian vote. He has to increase his number among women, thats his main problem.

[Ogre Mage]

He can't alienate so many demographics and expect to beat HILLARY!

SOUTH CAROLINA will carry her to victory in November!

Yesterday I read on this same forum that party identification doesnt matter that much (when Ohio was discussed). Appearently today it does matter. So things can change pretty quick. Let that be a warning for all those folks that declare victory. It is only June.

Sean Trende have explained multiple times that Trump can win by a slight increase of the white vote. I think the minority isn't his major problem, certainly not the Asian vote. He has to increase his number among women, thats his main problem.

Trende has been searching for those missing white voters for some time.  His analysis rests on some foolish assumptions. First, he assumes white voters will be 71% of the electorate in 2016, which is overly generous given the growth in the nonwhite voting population, which is on pace to be 31% of the electorate in 2016.  His claim that Trump only needs 61-62% of the white vote to win assumes that he doesn't do much worse with nonwhite voters than Romney did.  Trende claims:

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/05/31/yes_trump_can_win_130676.html

lol at this nonsense.  So apparently Trump is now suddenly not doing so bad with nonwhite voters because a Fox News poll said so, never mind the mountain of evidence to the contrary.  

If Trump actually did much worse among Latinos and Asians than Romney, Trende admits that Trump would need 64% of the white vote to win.  The idea he could do that well is farcical regardless of what that Fox News poll says.

I find it almost impossible that Trump can even hit the 61-62% mark with the white vote given his shaky standing among white voters with a college degree.  From 538:

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-might-help-trump-but-less-so-where-he-needs-it/