Will Obama declare the Armenian genocide a genocide?

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No, because Turkey will retaliate against US interests in the middle east. I think most people underestimate just how unhinged Erdogan is on this issue.

The Turkish political class in general. Remember Erdogan has to pander to the Mhp i(because he wants to amend the constitution), a party who would quite freely commit the genocide now.

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I would rather see him recognize that the Greek city of Constantinople has been under Turkish occupation since 1453. Of course, that's not going to happen either.

Is this some wacky joke or are you seriously pledging support for Golden Dawn policy?

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If you seriously support the annexation of Byzantium then you either support Greece becoming an effectively multiethnic state (which ... Won't happen) or the ethnic cleansing of the area.

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I understand why Turkey is invested in genocide denialism but I've never gotten why it's so much more frothing-at-the-mouth Kill Bill-sirens obsessed with it than, say, the Abe regime.

Because Japanese denial is merely a hobby horse of factionalists within the LDP. The Japanese people as a whole don't really care because it doesn't affect their lives. However Turks (rightly or wrongly) feel their nation's territorial integrity is at stake due to seperatists and irredentists. Also Erdogan uses nationalism as a crux - the MHP is his most useful ally in parliament and they are needed to push through his agenda.