Post Trump vs Clinton swing state county maps here!

[Mr. Illini]

Hamilton County, OH
Montgomery County, OH
Oakland County, MI
Macomb County, MI
Marquette County, MI
Merrimack County, NH
Franklin County, ME
Oxford County, ME
Hillsborough County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Way overestimating Trump. He is not winning any of these sub-landslide.

Some of them, like Hamilton OH and Hillsborough FL, GOP has a chance in but he plays worse there than standard R.

Others, like Marquette MI and Franklin ME, you're just overestimating how dramatic his sway is among working class whites. These are counties that haven't gone R in decades. He will win some rural white counties that Obama won, but he's not going to take northern counties that barely went for Bush in the bludgeoning of '88.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Pinellas and Hillsborough, FL are NOT going to to TRUMP lol.

[Adam Griffin]

Without a data operation in place right now (that means it is too late to build a successful one in time for the election), Trump is going to BOMB in swing counties because his campaign isn't going to be able to optimize support/turnout constituencies. Clinton, on the other hand, is going to have a data operation arguably more sophisticated than either of Obama's campaigns.

Being superior to your opponent in this area can net you 3 points in a given jurisdiction. We saw this play out in 2012 to a smaller degree, where Romney - while having said operation - saw its system (ORCA) crash and burn on Election Day. That probably resulted in a portion of said 3 points being lost; it would be better to look at that and see why the Obama campaign in many of these counties hit 08-levels of support or damn near it. Had Romney's operation been equivalently operational before and on Election Day, then Obama definitely would have lost some of the counties he wound up carrying. Florida would have probably went for Romney, if anything.

End result: I expect Clinton to have very close to Obama -12 levels of raw vote in these counties; Trump will be at 90% of Romney's. You can plug and play the numbers for each county to get the precise percentages, but it ain't looking good for Trump.

[Xing]

Here are some of Trump's "swing states", lol.

[Badger]

I think we're looking at a Johnson-esque landslide, perhaps even greater.

I'm starting to think it might be all 50 states.

You also "thought" NC was going to be a safe D state in 2004, that Paul would lose in 2010, ALG and Conway would win in a landslide and that Trump will lose Kentucky.

Bandit: The Red Avatar JCL.

[Mr. Morden]

Without a data operation in place right now (that means it is too late to build a successful one in time for the election), Trump is going to BOMB in swing counties because his campaign isn't going to be able to optimize support/turnout constituencies. Clinton, on the other hand, is going to have a data operation arguably more sophisticated than either of Obama's campaigns.

But the electoral college is of course WTA by state, not WTA by county.  So while there are certain counties in swing states that Clinton will put extra focus on because of analytics, are those necessarily going to match up with the counties that are close to being 50/50 (“swing counties”), as opposed to counties in swing *states* where the county winner is already known, but you’re driving up the margin (or driving up turnout)?