What percentage of the Texan Hispanic vote will Trump win?

[Kingpoleon]

Well? People keep saying things like "If Hillary wins 70-75% of the Hispanic vote, she can win Texas." This completely ignores how conservative Texan Hispanics usually are. IIRC, Bush won something like 50% of them in 2004.

[Green Line]

69-31

[President Johnson]

Around 35% are possible.

[SillyAmerican]

Around 35% are possible.

Agreed. About a third.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

More of the Tejanos than Mexicanos, but yeah about 30-35%.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

25-35 percent

[Xing]

Somewhere in the low 30s.

[The Other Castro]

Well? People keep saying things like "If Hillary wins 70-75% of the Hispanic vote, she can win Texas." This completely ignores how conservative Texan Hispanics usually are. IIRC, Bush won something like 50% of them in 2004.

Bush also got about 44% of Hispanics nationwide, and Trump will be lucky to get half that.

[President Pepe]

Between 15-20%

[Fuzzy Bear]

Around 35% are possible.

Agreed. About a third.

Agreed here.

Texas Mexicans are more conservative and more assimilated than Mexicans in California.  The only reason the vote will be depressed a bit is that Trump's plans for deportations do touch lives of Mexicans in America; many Mexicans have a family member or friend that is illegally in the US, so the issue is (somewhat justifiably) personal for many Mexicans.  If it were not for that issue, Trump would be at George W. Bush 2004 levels among Texas Mexicans.

[Sbane]

Around 35% are possible.

Agreed. About a third.

Agreed here.

Texas Mexicans are more conservative and more assimilated than Mexicans in California.  The only reason the vote will be depressed a bit is that Trump's plans for deportations do touch lives of Mexicans in America; many Mexicans have a family member or friend that is illegally in the US, so the issue is (somewhat justifiably) personal for many Mexicans.  If it were not for that issue, Trump would be at George W. Bush 2004 levels among Texas Mexicans.

The fact that he called them all rapists is not even a factor, huh? Let's wait till the election Fuzzybear. Your Dear Leader is about to get shellacked.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Around 35% are possible.

Agreed. About a third.

Agreed here.

Texas Mexicans are more conservative and more assimilated than Mexicans in California.  The only reason the vote will be depressed a bit is that Trump's plans for deportations do touch lives of Mexicans in America; many Mexicans have a family member or friend that is illegally in the US, so the issue is (somewhat justifiably) personal for many Mexicans.  If it were not for that issue, Trump would be at George W. Bush 2004 levels among Texas Mexicans.

The fact that he called them all rapists is not even a factor, huh? Let's wait till the election Fuzzybear. Your Dear Leader is about to get shellacked.

Trump stated that within ranks of ILLEGAL aliens are many rapists and murderers.  And he's absolutely right.

Many cities in the Southwest and California have significant problems with violent crime brought on by Transnational Gangs.  These gangs are often sponsored by powerful drug cartels in Mexico and other Latin American countries, and they travel in and out of the US fairly freely, all due to our porous border situation.  Sur 13, MS 13, Surenos, Nortenos; these are some examples of this.  Their members DO engage in murder and violence, often while doing "street business" of the cartels in US cities and towns.  And they DO engage in rape and human trafficking.   

Here's what the GAO found about crimes by illegal aliens as of 2011:   


•A cumulative total of 2.89 million offenses committed by these undocumented immigrants between 2003 and 2009 (although half a million of these were for immigration-related offenses).

•Among those offenses: An estimated 42,000 robberies, 70,000 sex crimes, 81,000 auto thefts, 95,000 weapons offenses, and 213,000 assaults

•An estimated 25,000 of these undocumented immigrants serving sentences for homicide.

It would be nice if Donald Trump gave a wonkish defense of his statement, but the facts speak for themselves.  ILLEGAL aliens commit a lot of crime.  They do so, in part, because of their inability to work in the United States legally, but they also do so because many of them are gang members.  Trump would be better served if he channeled his inner policy wonk on this issue.  I confess to sometimes believing that Trump is often right, but doesn't know that he's right, and that does worry me some.  But he's not wrong on this issue.  And he's not wrong in his comments.

[Indy Texas]

Their turnout is low. If turnout spikes for them, it will be almost all people voting for Clinton, so you could get a big swing.

The ones who vote regularly now do tend to be more Republican than Hispanics in other states, though.

[Wisconsin+17]

15 percent, which makes Texas tossup.