Virgin Islands Democratic Caucuses results thread (10am - 6pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

This runs from 10am to 6pm ET:

link

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/vi/Dem
VI Democratic Party Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/democratsvi/

[Tender Branson]

So, Hillary will likely come within ~10 delegates this weekend of getting the nomination ?

VI+PR should give her around 60 delegates and she needs 70.

[LLR]

Let's get a nice landslide here and ease into Tuesday.

[sportydude]

Despite being a tiny contest on a tiny island group, that caucus will be the most interesting to watch in my assessment, because it's exciting to see how a group of almost exclusively black voters vote in a closed Bernie vs. Hillary caucus. It's not secret, of course, that Hillary will be the winner - but by how much?

[Crumpets]

So... has there been any reporting from the caucuses so far? This started three hours ago, right?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So, whose supporters are more likely to be virgins, Sanders or Clinton?

[Tender Branson]

So, whose supporters are more likely to be virgins, Sanders or Clinton?

Sanders' ... because his supporters are mostly younger ones and Clinton's are Olds.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So... has there been any reporting from the caucuses so far? This started three hours ago, right?

CNN hasn't even started up its results tracking yet. I guess we have to wait until after 6. Unless anyone has crowdsourcing type numbers that we can get a rough estimate from.

[The Other Castro]

This feels like the kind of contest where the first results will come from twitter.

[Xing]

So is the only question here whether or not Sanders will reach viability?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So is the only question here whether or not Sanders will reach viability?

Sanders reached viability in MISSISSIPPI, he'll reach it here. Question is whether he gets 1 or 2 delegates. If he gets to 36% he'll get 3 but that would be a surprise.

[Fusionmunster]

So is the only question here whether or not Sanders will reach viability?

Sanders reached viability in MISSISSIPPI, he'll reach it here. Question is whether he gets 1 or 2 delegates. If he gets to 36% he'll get 3 but that would be a surprise.

Hillary didn't hit viability in 2008 here but she did in Mississipi. I think Sanders will get delegates myself but it shouldn't be ignored that Obama got 90% of the vote here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So is the only question here whether or not Sanders will reach viability?

Sanders reached viability in MISSISSIPPI, he'll reach it here. Question is whether he gets 1 or 2 delegates. If he gets to 36% he'll get 3 but that would be a surprise.

Mississippi electorate was 70% black. This is expected to be almost 90% black.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Mississippi electorate was 70% black. This is expected to be almost 90% black.

It should be obvious that black skin itself does not predispose people to voting for Hillary...in the South, there are particular historical, social, and cultural reasons that this year the black vote went to Hillary. The Virgin Islands has an entirely different historical, social, and cultural context. I'm not saying the vote there won't go for HRC but its not so easy to say that is because of people's race.

[Crumpets]

According to r/sandersforpresident (maybe not the best source, I admit) this is only a caucus in the technical sense. It operates more like the Republican caucus in Iowa than most of the Democratic ones, so turnout should be reasonably good.

[ElectionsGuy]

Black vote in deep south != black vote everywhere else. People here I would assume have almost no connection to US politics.

[Xing]

It does merit mention that Obama won 90-7 in 2008, though his support among black voters was pretty consistent throughout the mainland as well. If nothing else, I expect Hillary to win by a huge margin because she's been dominating the territories.

[ElectionsGuy]

Prediction (because why not)

Clinton: 77%
Sanders: 23%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I will be bold and predict that Clinton gets more then 85% (sweeping all 7 delegates) , because of the demographics and past strong performances in territories.  

[sportydude]

Does a candidate need 15% territory-wide, or does the threshold apply to each of the islands?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Does a candidate need 15% territory-wide, or does the threshold apply to each of the islands?

I believe it is state wide.

[Minnesota Mike]

My understanding is this more of a firehouse primary than a caucus. Limited polling places, limited hours but a secret ballot.

BTW delegates are broken down 4 to St Thomas/St John, 3 to St Croix.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VI-D

My Prediction is Hillary wins 5 of the 7 total delegates, 3-1 in St Thomas/St Johns, 2-1 in St Croix.

[sportydude]

Let's get a nice landslide here and ease into Tuesday.

You forgot tomorrow!

[Chief Justice Keef]

This feels like the kind of contest where the first results will come from twitter.

I wish when I look up #VirginIslandsCaucus on Twitter that I get relevant information and not just "#VIRGINISLANDS #VOTEFORBERNIE #NOW".

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

caucuses end in 54 minutes.