Jiggle the vote, according to 538.com

[pbrower2a]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

This should be well known to us all: the 2012 Presidential election.

Obama (D) 332
Romney (R) 206

I can quickly dispense with jiggling the black vote because reducing its participation level nationwide to 28% (from 66%) would flip four states necessary for a Trump win. Those would be Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Colorado and Nevada would still go for Clinton. Getting the black vote to go 30% for Trump, which is probably about what Eisenhower got in the 1950s, would still not bring about a Trump win.

Trump 286
Clinton 252

which would happen if black participation in the election went down to just below 30% (which isn't going to happen, because such would depend upon tampering with electoral laws) or if Trump got 32% of the black vote (which isn't going to happen because Donald Trump isn't Dwight Eisenhower). 

If Hispanics voted with the partisan intensity and at the level of participation of blacks (93%D, 66% participation, then the 2016 map would flip only three states:

Clinton (D) 396
Romney (R) 142

But the states to swing would be North Carolina, Arizona, and

TEXAS

[EliteLX]

If I had a dollar every time this 538 tool was posted to this board..

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

If you jiggle A/O vote alongside AA and H/L, Alaska flips, too.

And if, from there, you jiggle all whites to the inverse (93% R, 34% turnout), this happens.

Clinton: 256/49.4%
Trump: 282/49.0%

[pbrower2a]

The real swing vote this year, if there is any, will be the educated white vote. It still votes 56R-44D, but it is huge and elastic. The under-educated white vote might swing a little now that the potential horror of a black President (irony intended)  is no longer a threat. But the under-educated white vote looks heavily atomized and more likely to be swayed on visceral appeals than on moral suasion or even economic self-interest.

Now what would happen if the educated white vote went back to about 75R while other votes are unchanged? This could be more relevant to 2020 than to 2016.

Trump (R) 334
Clinton (D) 204

(Do I really believe that Donald Trump could lose Florida while winning Massachusetts and Minnesota? That's what the device shows). 

Now let's see what happens if the college-educated vote really turns against Donald Trump. A shift of 2% flips North Carolina. At just over a majority D among educated white voters, Georgia flips. At 53% among educated whites for Hillary Clinton, Arizona and Indiana go to her. Then around 55D, South Carolina and Missouri flip D. Mississippi and Texas go D around 57D for white educated voters.

Clinton (D) 448
Trump (R) 90

A post-mortem of such an election is that educated white people must have thought that Donald Trump is an unreliable and potentially dangerous demagogue while minorities voted as usual. 

[muon2]

I posted this as a prediction, in part because I was surprised at the effect of the 538 calculator on some variables.

I assume about a 6% drop in overall turnout driven by the unpopularity of the major candidates and anticipated negative campaign. That gives a turnout equal to 1996.

College whites 70%-54%R (from 77%-56%R); negative campaigns and disaffected college drop the turnout by 7% as it shifts 2% Dem.

Noncollege whites 53%-70%R (from 57%-62%); the Trump factor plays big here, and the turnout only drops 4% compared to the 6% average.

Blacks 56%-86%D (from 66%-93%D); the lack of Obama on the ticket returns black turnout to previous levels, slightly better than noncollege whites, and though still solid they drop to less than 90% Dem.

Latinos 44%-74%D (from 48%-71%); a drop in turnout equal to noncollege whites and 3% shift to the Dems.

Asians/Other 45%-70%D (from 49%-67%D);  a shift matching that of the Latinos.

Predicted vote Clinton 48.5%, Trump 49.8%. EV Clinton 232 Trump 306.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I posted this as a prediction, in part because I was surprised at the effect of the 538 calculator on some variables.

I assume about a 6% drop in overall turnout driven by the unpopularity of the major candidates and anticipated negative campaign. That gives a turnout equal to 1996.

College whites 70%-54%R (from 77%-56%R); negative campaigns and disaffected college drop the turnout by 7% as it shifts 2% Dem.

Noncollege whites 53%-70%R (from 57%-62%); the Trump factor plays big here, and the turnout only drops 4% compared to the 6% average.

Blacks 56%-86%D (from 66%-93%D); the lack of Obama on the ticket returns black turnout to previous levels, slightly better than noncollege whites, and though still solid they drop to less than 90% Dem.

Latinos 44%-74%D (from 48%-71%); a drop in turnout equal to noncollege whites and 3% shift to the Dems.

Asians/Other 45%-70%D (from 49%-67%D);  a shift matching that of the Latinos.

Predicted vote Clinton 48.5%, Trump 49.8%. EV Clinton 232 Trump 306.

You posted that as a prediction? Good luck.

[Dr. Arch]

If anything the Hispanic turnout will go up because the entire community has been spited by the GOP front-runner, Donald. There are already record registration rates around the country so, while the White vote may drop, the Hispanic vote certainly won't.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Someone discovered my map.

[Wisconsin+17]

Yeah, I got that map with 95-5 Hispanic contra trump and 53/47 Hillary win among Whites with a degree.

[Nym90]

I posted this as a prediction, in part because I was surprised at the effect of the 538 calculator on some variables.

I assume about a 6% drop in overall turnout driven by the unpopularity of the major candidates and anticipated negative campaign. That gives a turnout equal to 1996.

College whites 70%-54%R (from 77%-56%R); negative campaigns and disaffected college drop the turnout by 7% as it shifts 2% Dem.

Noncollege whites 53%-70%R (from 57%-62%); the Trump factor plays big here, and the turnout only drops 4% compared to the 6% average.

Blacks 56%-86%D (from 66%-93%D); the lack of Obama on the ticket returns black turnout to previous levels, slightly better than noncollege whites, and though still solid they drop to less than 90% Dem.

Latinos 44%-74%D (from 48%-71%); a drop in turnout equal to noncollege whites and 3% shift to the Dems.

Asians/Other 45%-70%D (from 49%-67%D);  a shift matching that of the Latinos.

Predicted vote Clinton 48.5%, Trump 49.8%. EV Clinton 232 Trump 306.

No way black and latino turnout drops that much, or that Trump does that well with college educated whites. Latino turnout will almost certainly surge if both percentage turnout and D percentage, and while black turnout would normally drop with Obama off the ballot, I'm not so sure it will....some reminders of Trump's KKK endorsements will keep the black vote engaged, if nothing else.

The college educated white vote is harder to predict, but Trump's continued doubling down on racism isn't doing him any favors.

[Wisconsin+17]

[This account no longer in use.]

I made this map out of forum TRUMPite fantasies:

Trump wins 60% of the college educated white vote
Wins 70% of the non college educated white vote
Wins 20% of the black vote
Wins the Hispanic vote

I left Asian and Other the same.

[muon2]

I posted this as a prediction, in part because I was surprised at the effect of the 538 calculator on some variables.

I assume about a 6% drop in overall turnout driven by the unpopularity of the major candidates and anticipated negative campaign. That gives a turnout equal to 1996.

College whites 70%-54%R (from 77%-56%R); negative campaigns and disaffected college drop the turnout by 7% as it shifts 2% Dem.

Noncollege whites 53%-70%R (from 57%-62%); the Trump factor plays big here, and the turnout only drops 4% compared to the 6% average.

Blacks 56%-86%D (from 66%-93%D); the lack of Obama on the ticket returns black turnout to previous levels, slightly better than noncollege whites, and though still solid they drop to less than 90% Dem.

Latinos 44%-74%D (from 48%-71%); a drop in turnout equal to noncollege whites and 3% shift to the Dems.

Asians/Other 45%-70%D (from 49%-67%D);  a shift matching that of the Latinos.

Predicted vote Clinton 48.5%, Trump 49.8%. EV Clinton 232 Trump 306.

No way black and latino turnout drops that much, or that Trump does that well with college educated whites. Latino turnout will almost certainly surge if both percentage turnout and D percentage, and while black turnout would normally drop with Obama off the ballot, I'm not so sure it will....some reminders of Trump's KKK endorsements will keep the black vote engaged, if nothing else.

The college educated white vote is harder to predict, but Trump's continued doubling down on racism isn't doing him any favors.

Negative campaigns result in people telling pollsters that they are gong to vote against someone, but many of those same people just don't vote. Negative campaigns depress turnout. All signs point to a very negative campaign with both candidates already at high personal negatives. It's hard to see anything but a drop off in all demographic categories.

We have seen unusually high turnout among minorities because of Obama. There would naturally be a drop off of minorities with Obama off the ballot. I simply returned blacks to their traditional turnout numbers. I gave the least drop off to Asians and Latinos precisely for the reasons you cite. But there is still a drop off due to overall lowered turnout.

I increased the Dem share by 2-3% for all groups except noncollege whites (for Trump) and blacks (no Obama). A 3% Dem shift for college educated whites in a close election is quite large since they are a large segment of the vote. However, if I don't change the turnout, but shift the partisan factors the same way and increase college white to 3% Dem shift, 538 still predicts Trump winning 273-265.

If I take my basic model for dropping turnout back to 1996 levels and shift all groups 3-4% to the Dems except for non-college whites, but now keep blacks at 93% D instead of dropping that below 90%, the calculator gives Trump winning 273-265. The shift of non-college whites for Trump, and how much they shift was the critical factor in all these simulations.

[mgop]

if whites turnout more, and blacks will get smaller turnout because theres no obama, trump will easily win.

[This account no longer in use.]

True, but it won't just be white people; everybody, with the possible exception of African Americans, will turn out more. This election, and Donald Trump in particular, have endlessly been focused on by the media for the past year.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Great Relations With The Blacks
If all black people turn out and 99% of them vote for the Republicans, and all other people of color turn out and 98% of them vote for the Democrats, this happens.

357-181
61.4-37.1
Hillary wins both EV and PV.
EDIT: I probably should have mentioned that whites don't vote at all.

[Redban]

Turnout won't drop this year because of Trump (and the circus he brings with him). We might see turnout close to 2008 levels.