2020: The GOP at a Crossroads

[Pragmatic Conservative]

North Carolina
Thom Tillis (I) (R) vs Kay Hagan (D) (Tossup)

Oklahoma
Jim Inhofe (I) (R) vs Dan Boren (D) (likely R)

Oregon
Jeff Merkley (I) (D) vs Greg Walden (R) (lean D)

Rhode Island
Jack Reed (I) (D) vs Scott Avedisian (R) (Safe D)

South Carolina
Lindsey Graham (I) (R) vs Vincent Sheheen (D) (likely R)

South Dakota
Mike Rounds (I) (R) vs Jason Frerichs (D) (Safe R)

Tennessee
Lamar Alexander (I) (R) vs Roy Herron (D) (Safe R)

Texas
Katrina Pierson (R) vs Ivy Taylor (D) (Tossup) (John Cornyn defeated in primary)

Virginia
Mark Warner (I) (D) vs Barbara Comstock (R) (Tossup)

West Virginia
Shelley Moore Capito (I) (R) vs Jeff Kessler (D) (Safe R)

Wyoming
Mike Enzi (I) (R) vs Mike Massie (D) (Safe R)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Governor Match-ups and ratings

Delaware
John Carney (I) (D) vs Daniel Short (R) (Safe D)

Indiana
John R. Gregg (I) (D) vs Susan Brooks (R) (Tossup)

Missouri
Chris Koster (I) (D) vs Ann Wagner (R) (Tossup)

Montana
Linda McCulloch (D) vs Ryan Zinke (R) (lean R)

New Hampshire
Colin Van Ostern (I) (D) vs Frank Edelblut (likely D)

North Carolina
Anthony Foxx (D) vs Dan Forest (R) (Tossup) (Roy Cooper Retiring)

North Dakota
Doug Burgum (I) (R) vs Marvin Nelson (D) (Safe R)

Utah
Spencer Cox (R) vs Ben McAdams (D) (likely R)

Vermont
Sue Minter (I) (D) vs Phil Scott (R) (Tossup)

Washington
Dave Reichert (R) 25%
Steve Litzow (R) 23%
Bob Ferguson (D) 20%
Dow Constantine (D) 18%
Aaron Reardon (D) 11%
Other 2%

Dave Reichert (R) vs Steve Litzow (R) Safe R-lean Reichert

Another disaster for Democrats in a top two primary. With the combined effect of the similar disaster in 2018 in California and the 2016 Washington Treasure race, a renewed push is made to abolish the top two primary system.    

West Virginia
Jim Justice (I) (D) vs David McKinley (R) (Tossup)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Cooper retiring? Could this mean Feingold/Cooper 2020?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Cooper retiring? Could this mean Feingold/Cooper 2020?

It's possible however the pundits and betting markets  seem to view it as unlikely based on the leaked short list.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Of course, in OTL, betting markets didn't think Pence would be the VP pick just two weeks before he was, and look where he is now.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Republican National Convention 2020
Pittsburgh Pennsylvania August 17-20 2020



all times eastern (prime time speaking slots)
Day 1 August 17: Opening Night
8 PM:  Michigan Governor Justin Amash (endorsing Rand Paul)
8:33 PM: Nevada Senator Brian Sandoval (endorsing Susan Martinez)
9:06 PM: Utah Senator Mike Lee (endorsing Rand Paul)
9:39 PM: House Speaker Paul Ryan (endorsing Susan Martinez)
10:12 PM: Kelley Paul (Rand Paul's spouse and perspective First Person)
10:45 PM: Chuck Franco (Susan Martinez spouse and perspective First Person)
10:48: Convention adjourned (roll call the next day)

Day 2
1 PM: Rand Paul announces Cathy McMorris Rodgers as his running mate, minutes later Susan Martinez announces Rob Portman as her running mate.

1:33 PM: Ted Cruz formally nominates Rand Paul.

1:55 PM: Charlie Baker formally nominates Susan Martinez.

2:17 PM: Tim Scott formally nominates Rob Portman as Vice President

2:41 PM: Joni Ernst formally nominates Cathy McMorris Rodgers for Vice President

3:31 PM: Roll call ends with the following results
Rand Paul  1289 Delegates
Susan Martinez 1167 Delegates
Abstain/Other 12 Delegates  

Rand Paul is nominated as the Republican Presidential Nominee

4:45 PM VP Roll call
Cathy McMorris Rodgers 1499
Rob Portman 950 Delegates
Abstain/Other 19 Delegates

Cathy McMorris Rodgers is nominated as the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee


------------
Prime-time Speaking slot
8 PM: South Carolina Senator Tim Scott
8:33 PM: Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker
9:06 PM: Texas Senator Ted Cruz
9:39 PM: Idaho Senator and Senate Majority leader  Mike Crapo
10:12 PM: Former Ohio Senator Rob Portman
10:45 PM: New Mexico Senator Susan Martinez (concession speech, call the party to rally behind Paul/Rodgers)
10:48: Convention adjourned


Day three
Prime-time Speaking slot
8 PM: West Virginia Senator Shelley Moore Capito
8:33 PM: Illinois Senator Mark Kirk
9:06 PM: Colorado Governor Cory Gardner  
9:39 PM: Kentucky Senator Thomas Massie
10:12 PM:    Brian Rodgers (Cathy McMorris Rodgers spouse, introduces Cathy McMorris Rodgers )  
10:45 PM: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Republican Vice Presidential nominee)
10:48: Convention adjourned

Day four
7:50 PM: Maryland Governor Larry Hogan  
8:23 PM:Georgia Senator David Perdue
8:54 PM:Maine Senator Susan Collins
9:29 PM: North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis
10:02 PM: Former Rep. Ron Paul (Introducing son Rand Paul)
10:32 PM: Rand Paul (Republican Presidential nominee
11:12 PM: Convention adjourned

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Democratic National Convention 2020
Phoenix Arizona  August 24-27 2020


Russ Feingold announces Pennsylvania Senator Katie McGinty as his running mate 3 days before the start of the convention.
all times eastern (prime time speaking slots)
Day 1 August 17: Opening Night
8 PM: Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown
8:33 PM: Secretary of Transportation and North Carolina Governor nominee Anthony Foxx
9:06 PM: Former Senator and Cabinet Secretary Tammy Baldwin
9:39 PM: Minority House leader Steny Hoyer
10:12 PM: Former Vice President Al Gore
10:45 PM: Christine Ferdinand (Russ Feingold's  spouse and perspective First Person)
11:48: Convention adjourned (roll call the next day)

Day 2
2 PM: Elizabeth Warren formally nominates Russ Feingold for President
2:25 PM: Joe Manchin formally nominates Katie McGinty for President
3:45 PM:Roll Call ends,
Russ Feingold 2092 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 1876 Delegates
Russ Feingold nominated as Presidential nominee

4:05 PM: Katie McGinty nominated as Vice Presidential nominee by voice vote.

---------------------
8 PM: Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren
8:33 PM: Former Vice President Joe Biden
9:06 PM: Former Senator Bernie Sanders
9:39 PM: New York Senator and Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer
10:12 PM: Former President Bill Clinton
10:45 PM: President Hillary Clinton
11:48: Convention adjourned

Day Three (prime time speaking slots)
8 PM: Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton  
8:33 PM: DNC chair and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo    
9:06 PM: Vice President Tim Kaine
9:39 PM: Arizona Senator Ann Kirkpatrick
10:12 PM: Karl Hausker (Katie McGinty spouse, introduces Katie McGinty)
10:45 PM: Katie McGinty (Vice Presidential nominee)
11:48: Convention adjourned (roll call the next day)

Day Four (prime time speaking slots)
7:50 PM:Former North Carolina Senator Kay Hagen
8:23 PM:Former Georgia State Senator Jason Carter (running for senate)
8:54 PM:Missouri Senator Jason Kander
9:29 PM: Former President Barack Obama
10:02 PM: Dena Feingold (Russ Feingold's sister, introducing Russ Feingold)
10:32 PM: (Russ Feingold Democratic Presidential nominee)
11:14 PM: Convention adjourned

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Voted option 5 upon finding out Good Boy Roy was not Veep.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

September 9th Polling Update

Russ Feingold 43% (+3)
Rand Paul 41% (+6)
Donald Trump/Jim Webb 7% (-1)
Undecided/other 9% (-8)

90% Strong
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup

Russ Feingold 224EV
Rand Paul 207 EV
Tossup 107 EV

Support or oppose Western Free Trade Deal (WFTD)?
Support 43%
Oppose 40%
Undecided 17%

Support or oppose a Constitutional Convention?
Support 55%
Oppose 30%
Undecided 15%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The Debates

Presidential Debate #1-September 22end



Donald Trump is not include in the first Presidential Debate for failing to reach the 15% polling thresh hold.

The debate is largely seen as a draw, with neither candidate having any significant stand out moments positively or negatively.  

Debate winner
Tie 40%
Russ Feingold 33%
Rand Paul 27%

Vice Presidential Debate October 6th

 Katie McGinty delivers a solid performance in the VP debate, giving the Feingold/McGinty ticket a minor boost in the polls.

Debate winner
Katie McGinty 55%
Cathy McMorris Rodgers 38%
Tie 7%

Second Presidential Debate October 10th

In the Second Presidential debate, Rand Paul is seen as edging out Russ Feingold. While many of Feingolds answers are seen as good, Paul is better able to articulate them to a mass audience.
Debate winner
Rand Paul 45%
Russ Feingold 31%
Tie 14%

Third Presidential Debate October 20th

The third Presidential debate proved to be the break through that many Paul supporters had hoped for. Paul came across as incredibly knowledgeable and articulate on foreign policy, outshining Russ Feingold much of the night.
Debate winner poll
Rand Paul 59%
Russ Feingold 30%
Tie 11%
 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

November 2end Polling Averages

Rand Paul 47% (+6)
Russ Feingold 45% (+2)
Donald Trump/Jim Webb 5% (-2)
Undecided/other 3% (-6)

90% Strong
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup

Rand Paul 217 EV
Russ Feingold 214 EV
Tossup  107 EV


Support or oppose Western Free Trade Deal (WFTD)?
Support 48% (+5)
Oppose 44% (+3)
Undecided 8% (-9)

Support or oppose a Constitutional Convention?
Support 62% (+7)
Oppose 34% (+4)
Undecided 4% (-11)

Senate
90% Strong
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup

Republicans 53 Seats (8 Tossup seats held)
Democrats 47 Seats   (4 Tossup seats held)

Governor
90% Strong
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup

Washington is likely Reichert

Next up: A very late and hopefully entertaining election night.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Shame you edited it. I was looking forward to dictator for life Roy Cooper.

[Free Bird]

*Crosses fingers* please don't let this be a last second Feingold wank

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Good evening and welcome to election night 2020, tonight we have both a competitive Presidential race and a tight battle for Senate control. We will also be following two important non binding referendums tonight on trade and a constitutional convention.  With it being 7 PM on the East coast we have polls closing in 6 states (Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Georgia and the critical battle ground of Virginia). Lets head over for some live projections.


First up we can project Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina for Rand Paul, meanwhile Vermont goes for Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold. Georgia is too early to call with Virginia too close to call. Going down ballot we can project Lindsey Graham is Re-elected Senator from South Carolina. In Kentucky the Senate race is too early to call, and in Virginia and Georgia the race is too close to call. Both Indiana's and Vermont Governors races are too close to call.

Lets look at some live results

Indiana President 100%
Rand Paul 51%
Russ Feingold 40%
Donald Trump 7%
Other 2%

Indiana Governor 11%
Susan Brooks 52%
John R. Gregg (I) 45%
Other 3%

Kentucky President 100%
Rand Paul 53%
Russ Feingold 37%
Donald Trump 8%
Other 2%

Kentucky Senate 16%
Andy Beshear 52%
Thomas Massie (I) 48%

South Carolina President 100%
Rand Paul 52%
Russ Feingold 40%
Donald Trump 8%
Other 1%

South Carolina Senate 100%
Lindsey Graham (I) 56%
Vincent Sheheen 44%

Vermont President 100%
Russ Feingold 59%
Rand Paul 35%
Donald Trump 4%
Other 2%

Vermont Governor 1%
Phil Scott  50%
Sue Minter (I) 44%
Other 6%

Georgia President 1%
Rand Paul 70%
Russ Feingold 23%
Donald Trump 6%
Other 1%

Georgia Senate 1%
David Perdue (I) 68%
Jason Carter 28%
Other 3%

Virginia President 2%
Rand Paul 51%
Russ Feingold 37%
Donald Trump 10%
Other 2%

Virginia Senate 2%
Barbara Comstock 58%
Mark Warner (I) 40%
Other 2%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

( I will do a new up to date map every hour of coverage and then from (9 PM EST after every projection)
---------------------------
It is now 7:30 PM EST and polls have closed in three more states including the crucial battle ground of Ohio, as well as West Virginia and North Carolina.

Lets get to some projections now.

First up we can project that Senator Rand Paul will win the state of West Virginia. North Carolina and Ohio are too close to call. Down ballot we can project that Shelley Moore Capito will be re-elected Senator from West Virginia. The Senate race in North Carolina is too close to call along with the Governor race in both North Carolina and West Virginia. 

Let's get to some live results now:

West Virginia President 100%
Rand Paul 59%
Russ Feingold 29%
Donald Trump 11%
Other 1%

West Virginia Senate 100%
Shelley Moore Capito 64%
Jeff Kessler 33%
Other 3%


West Virginia Governor 1%
Jim Justice (I) 52%
David McKinley 46%
Other 2%

Ohio President 1%
Russ Feingold 53%
Rand Paul 42%
Donald Trump 4%
Other 1%

North Carolina President 1%
Rand Paul 53%
Russ Feingold 38%
Donald Trump 7%
Other 2%


North Carolina Senate 1%
Thom Tillis (I) 54%
Kay Hagan 44%
Other 2%

North Carolina Governor 1%
Dan Forest 55%
Anthony Foxx  43%
Other 2%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Green are states yet to be called.

President

Rand Paul 33 EV
Russ Feingold 3 EV


Senate

Democrats 36 Seats
Republicans 31 seats


Governors

[Jaguar4life]

Lose to see this get resumed

[Pragmatic Conservative]

It is 8 PM Est with polls closing in 17 states (Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey,Tennessee, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma; and the crucial battle grounds of Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.


Lets head over to some live projections now. We can project Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Missouri for Senator Rand Paul.  Meanwhile we can project Connecticut, Delaware, Washington DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois and ME-1 Congressional District for Senator Russ Feingold. ME-2 Congressional District is too early to call, while Maine, New Hampshire, Florida and Pennsylvania are too close to call.

Down ballot we go, we can make the following senate projections: Rep. Martha Roby is elected in Alabama,  Senator Chris Coons is re-elected in Delaware, Senator Susan Collins  is re-elected in Maine, Senator Ed Markey is re-elected in Massachusetts, Former Governor Phil Bryant is elected in Mississippi, Senator Cory Booker is re-elected in New Jersey, Senator Jim Inhofe is re-elected in Oklahoma, Senator Jack Reed is re-elected in Rhode Island and Lamar Alexander is re-elected in Tennessee. Illinois is too close to call.

In the Governors races, we can projected incumbent Governor John Carney  is re-elected in Delaware, New Hampshire is too early to call, and Missouri is too close to call. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I simply don't have time to go through everything in this timeline hour by hour, but still wanted to give a proper conclusion to something I have been working on for almost a year so I will post the final results below and an epilogue afterwards

President

Rand Paul 337 EV 49%
Russ Feingold 207 EV 45%
Donald Trump 0 EV 5%

Senate

Republicans 51 Seats  (-2)
Democrats 49 Seats (+2)

Governor

Reichert wins in Washington State.