2020: The GOP at a Crossroads
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Author Topic: 2020: The GOP at a Crossroads  (Read 11232 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #75 on: January 22, 2017, 08:26:21 PM »
Territory Tuesday Republicans (please note that this has been added to the schedule on March 24th)



Territory Tuesday Primary
Susan Martinez 38 Delegates
Rand Paul 21 Delegates


America Samoa Republican Presidential Primary 9 Delegates
Susan Martinez 63% 6 Delegates
Rand Paul 37% 3 Delegates

Guam Republican Presidential Primary 9 Delegates
Susan Martinez 57% 5 Delegates
Rand Paul 43%  4 Delegates

Northern Mariana Islands Republican Presidential Primary 9 Delegates
Susan Martinez 62% 6 Delegates
Rand Paul 38% 3 Delegates

Puerto Rico Republican Presidential Primary 23 Delegates
Susan Martinez 74% 17 Delegates
Rand Paul 26%  6 Delegates

US Virgin Islands Republican Presidential Primary 9 Delegates
Rand Paul 55% 5 Delegates
Susan Martinez 45% 4 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #76 on: January 22, 2017, 08:29:57 PM »
Post Territory Tuesday

Delegate Counts (Up to and including March 24th)

Democrats (2,382 needed to win)
Russ Feingold 1107 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 1047 Delegates

Republicans (1237 needed to win)
Susan Martinez  537 Delegates
Rand Paul 527 Delegates
Ted Cruz* 152 Delegates
Tim Scott* 25 Delegates
Charlie Baker* 4 Delegates

*(Suspended Campaign)

Democratic Primary National
Russ Feingold 54% (-)
Hillary Clinton 44%(-)
Undecided 2% (-)


Republican Primary National
Susan Martinez 49%(-)
Rand Paul 47%(-)
Undecided 4%(-)
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Free Bird
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« Reply #77 on: January 22, 2017, 09:31:32 PM »
Rand is doing what Obama did in 08, I notice.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #78 on: February 10, 2017, 05:59:53 PM »


March 31st Democratic Primaries
Russ Feingold 49 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 29 Delegates



North Dakota-23 Delegates
Russ Feingold 64% 15 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 36% 8 Delegates


Utah-37 Delegates
Russ Feingold 66% 24 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 34% 13 Delegates


Wyoming-18 Delegates
Russ Feingold 58% 10 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 42% 8 Delegates

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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #79 on: February 10, 2017, 08:12:50 PM »

March 31st GOP Primaries

 

March 31 Republican Primary
Rand Paul 59 Delegates
Susan Martinez  32 Delegates


North Dakota Republican Presidential Primary 28 Delegates
Rand Paul 61% 17 Delegates
Susan Martinez 39% 9 Delegates

Utah Republican Presidential Primary 40 Delegates
Rand Paul 63% 25 Delegates
Susan Martinez 37% 15 Delegates

Wyoming Republican Presidential Primary 29 Delegates
Rand Paul 59% 17 Delegates
Susan Martinez 41% 8 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #80 on: February 10, 2017, 08:18:51 PM »
Post March 31st

Delegate Counts (Up to and including March 31st)

Democrats (2,382 needed to win)
Russ Feingold 1156 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 1076 Delegates

Republicans (1237 needed to win)
Rand Paul 586 Delegates
Susan Martinez  569 Delegates
Ted Cruz* 152 Delegates
Tim Scott* 25 Delegates
Charlie Baker* 4 Delegates

*(Suspended Campaign)

Democratic Primary National
Russ Feingold 55% (+1)
Hillary Clinton 44%(-)
Undecided 1% (-1)


Republican Primary National
Susan Martinez 49%(-)
Rand Paul 48%(+1)
Undecided 4%(-)
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #81 on: February 10, 2017, 08:25:23 PM »
New York Primary April 7th



New York Democratic Primary-291Delegates
Hillary Clinton 53% 154 Delegates
Russ Feingold 47% 137 Delegates


New York Republican Primary-95 Delegates
Susan Martinez 54% 51 Delegates
Rand Paul 46% 44 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #82 on: February 10, 2017, 08:40:15 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 08:22:54 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Super Tuesday 3


Democratic Party Super Tuesday 3
Russ Feingold  343 Delegates
Hillary Clinton  306 Delegates


Connecticut
Democratic Party (Presidential)-71 Delegates
Russ Feingold 59% 42 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 41% 29 Delegates

Delaware
Democratic Party (Presidential)-32 Delegates
Russ Feingold 53% 16 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 47% 16 Delegates


District of Columbia
Democratic Party (Presidential)-44 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 64% 28 Delegates
Russ Feingold 36% 16 Delegates


Maryland
Democratic Party (Presidential)-120 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 54% 65 Delegates
Russ Feingold 46% 55 Delegates

Massachusetts
Democratic Party (Presidential)-115 Delegates
Russ Feingold 55% 63 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 45% 52 Delegates


Pennsylvania
Democratic Party (Presidential)-208 Delegates
Russ Feingold 53% 110 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 47% 98 Delegates


Rhode Island
Democratic Party (Presidential)-33 Delegates
Russ Feingold 61% 20 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 39% 13 Delegates


Vermont
Democratic Party (Presidential)-26 Delegates
Russ Feingold 82% 21 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 18% 5 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #83 on: February 11, 2017, 03:26:41 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 03:28:24 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Super Tuesday Three Republicans



Super Tuesday Three
Susan Martinez 139  Delegates
Rand Paul 108 Delegates


Connecticut  Republican Presidential Primary 28 Delegates
Susan Martinez 57% 16 Delegates
Rand Paul 43% 12 Delegates

Delaware Republican Presidential Primary 16 Delegates
Susan Martinez 52% 8 Delegates
Rand Paul 48%  8 Delegates

District of Columbia Republican Presidential Primary 19 Delegates
Susan Martinez 63% 12 Delegates
Rand Paul 37% 7 Delegates

Maryland Republican Presidential Primary 38 Delegates
Susan Martinez 59% 22 Delegates
Rand Paul 41%  14 Delegates

Massachusetts Republican Presidential Primary 42 Delegates
Susan Martinez 58% 24 Delegates
Rand Paul 42%  18 Delegates

Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary 71 Delegates
Susan Martinez 51% 36 Delegates
Rand Paul 49%  35 Delegates

Rhode Island Republican Presidential Primary 19 Delegates
Susan Martinez 56% 11 Delegates
Rand Paul 44%  8 Delegates

Vermont Republican Presidential Primary 16 Delegates
Susan Martinez 62% 10 Delegates
Rand Paul 38%  6 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #84 on: February 11, 2017, 03:33:37 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 08:27:44 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Post Super Tuesday Three

Delegate Counts (Up to and including April 14th)

Democrats (2,382 needed to win)
Russ Feingold 1630 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 1536 Delegates

Republicans (1237 needed to win)
Susan Martinez  759 Delegates
Rand Paul 738 Delegates
Ted Cruz* 152 Delegates
Tim Scott* 25 Delegates
Charlie Baker* 4 Delegates

*(Suspended Campaign)

Democratic Primary National
Russ Feingold 55% (-)
Hillary Clinton 44%(-)
Undecided 1% (-)


Republican Primary National
Susan Martinez 50%(+1)
Rand Paul 49%(+1)
Undecided 1%(-3)
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #85 on: February 11, 2017, 03:40:00 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 03:44:01 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
April 21st Democratic Primaries


April 21st Primaries
Russ Feingold  176 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 109 Delegates


Alaska
Democratic Party (Presidential)-20 Delegates
Russ Feingold 71% 14 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 29% 6 Delegates

Colorado
Democratic Party (Presidential)-78 Delegates
Russ Feingold 62% 48 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 38% 30 Delegates

Oregon
Democratic Party (Presidential)-74 Delegates
Russ Feingold 63% 47 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 37% 27 Delegates

Oregon Democratic Senate Primary
Jeff Merkley 89%
Assorted other Candidates 11%

Washington
Democratic Party (Presidential)-118 Delegates
Russ Feingold 61% 72 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 39% 46 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #86 on: February 11, 2017, 04:25:44 PM »
April 21st Republican Primary
 

April 21 Republican Primary
Rand Paul 79 Delegates
Susan Martinez  58 Delegates


Alaska Republican Presidential Primary 28 Delegates
Rand Paul 66% 18 Delegates
Susan Martinez 34% 10 Delegates

Colorado Republican Presidential Primary 37 Delegates
Rand Paul 59% 22 Delegates
Susan Martinez 41% 15 Delegates

Oregon Republican Presidential Primary 28 Delegates
Rand Paul 57% 16 Delegates
Susan Martinez 43% 12 Delegates

Oregon Republican Party Senate Election
Greg Walden 56%
Dennis Richardson 40%
Other assorted candidates 4%

Washington Republican Presidential Primary 44 Delegates
Rand Paul 53% 23 Delegates
Susan Martinez 47% 21 Delegates
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #87 on: February 11, 2017, 04:34:18 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 08:30:10 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Post April 21st

Delegate Counts (Up to and including April 21st)

Democrats (2,382 needed to win)
Russ Feingold 1811 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 1645 Delegates

Republicans (1237 needed to win)
Susan Martinez  817 Delegates
Rand Paul 817 Delegates
Ted Cruz* 152 Delegates
Tim Scott* 25 Delegates
Charlie Baker* 4 Delegates

*(Suspended Campaign)

Democratic Primary National
Russ Feingold 56% (-1)
Hillary Clinton 43%(-1)
Undecided 1% (-)


Republican Primary National
Susan Martinez 50%(-)
Rand Paul 49%(-)
Undecided 1%(-)
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #88 on: February 11, 2017, 04:49:51 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 05:03:31 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
(As their are few primaries in the next few weeks I will post all 5 in this thread)

April 28th-May 19th Democratic Primaries


April 28th-May 19th Primaries
Russ Feingold 281  Delegates
Hillary Clinton 246 Delegates


Indiana April 28th
Democratic Party (Presidential)-92 Delegates
Russ Feingold 56% 52 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 44% 40 Delegates

Indiana Democratic Governors Primary
John R. Gregg Acclaimed

Nebraska May 5th
Democratic Party (Presidential)-30 Delegates
Russ Feingold 59% 18 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 41% 12 Delegates

Nebraska Democratic Senate Primary
Steve Lathrop 53%
Annette Dubas 47%

West Virginia May 5th
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 37 Delegates
Russ Feingold 60% 22 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 40% 15 Delegates

West Virginia Democratic Governors Primary
Jim Justice 93%
Other Assorted Candidates 7%

West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary
Jeff Kessler 57%
Erik Wells 43%

Kentucky May 12th
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 60 Delegates
Russ Feingold 54% 32 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 46% 28 Delegates

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary
Andy Beshear Acclaimed

Oklahoma May 19th
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 42 Delegates
Russ Feingold 57% 24 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 43% 18 Delegates

Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary
Dan Boren 88%
Other assorted candidates 12%

Texas May 19th
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 251 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 53% 133 Delegates
Russ Feingold 47% 118 Delegates

Texas Democratic Senate Primary
Ivy Taylor 91%
Other assorted candidates 9%
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #89 on: February 11, 2017, 05:42:27 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 05:58:54 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
April 28th-May 19th Republican Primary
 

April 28th-May 19th Republican Primary
Rand Paul 201 Delegates
Susan Martinez 170 Delegates


Indiana Republican Presidential Primary April 28th 57 Delegates
Rand Paul 58% 33 Delegates
Susan Martinez 42% 24 Delegates

Indiana Republican Governors Primary
Susan Brooks 54%
Todd Young 46%

Nebraska  Republican Presidential Primary May 5th 36 Delegates
Rand Paul 62% 22 Delegates
Susan Martinez 38% 14 Delegates

Nebraska Republican Senate Primary
Ben Sasse 86%
other assorted candidates 14%

West Virginia Republican Presidential Primary May 5th 34 Delegates
Rand Paul 61% 21 Delegates
Susan Martinez 39% 13 Delegates

West Virginia Republican Governors Primary
David McKinley 52%
Alex Mooney 48%

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary
Shelley Moore Capito Acclaimed

Kentucky  Republican Presidential Primary May 12th 46 Delegates
Rand Paul 63% 29 Delegates
Susan Martinez 37% 17 Delegates

Kentucky Republican Senate Primary
Thomas Massie 93%
Other assorted candidates 7%

Oklahoma Republican Presidential Primary May 19th 43 Delegates
Rand Paul 57% 25 Delegates
Susan Martinez 43% 18 Delegates

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary
Jim Inhofe 91%
Other assorted candidates 9%


Texas Republican Presidential Primary May 19th 155 Delegates
Susan Martinez 54% 84 Delegates
Rand Paul 46% 71 Delegates


Texas Republican Senate Primary
John Cornyn 47%
Katrina Pierson 42%
other assorted candidates 11%

Katrina Pierson 52%
John Cornyn 48%
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #90 on: February 11, 2017, 06:09:19 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 08:33:30 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Post May 19th


Delegate Counts (Up to and including May 19th)

Democrats (2,382 needed to win)
Russ Feingold 2092 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 1876 Delegates

Republicans (1237 needed to win)
Rand Paul 1018 Delegates
Susan Martinez  987 Delegates
Ted Cruz* 152 Delegates
Tim Scott* 25 Delegates
Charlie Baker* 4 Delegates

*(Suspended Campaign)

Democratic Primary National
Russ Feingold 57% (+1)
Hillary Clinton 42%(-1)
Undecided 1% (-)


Republican Primary National
Susan Martinez 50%(-)
Rand Paul 49%(-)
Undecided 1%(-)

-John Cornyn resigns as Senate majority leader the day after losing his primary runoff race, he is replaced by Mike Crapo as Majority leader with Tim Scott becoming Majority Whip.  
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #91 on: February 11, 2017, 07:16:15 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 07:18:42 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Super Tuesday four Democratic Primaries


Super Tuesday four Primaries
Russ Feingold 407 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 377 Delegates


California
Democratic Party (Presidential)-551 Delegates
Russ Feingold 52% 287 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 48% 264 Delegates


Montana
Democratic Party (Presidential)-27 Delegates
Russ Feingold 59% 16 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 41% 11 Delegates

Montana Democratic Governors Primary
Linda McCulloch 55%
Denise Juneau 45%

Montana Democratic Senate Primary
Steve Bullock Acclaimed


New Jersey
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 142 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 52% 74 Delegates
Russ Feingold 48% 68 Delegates

New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary
Cory Booker 92%
other assorted candidates 8%


New Mexico
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 43 Delegates
Russ Feingold 53% 23 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 47% 20 Delegates

New Mexico Democratic Senate Primary
Tom Udall Acclaimed

South Dakota
Democratic Party (Presidential)- 25 Delegates
Russ Feingold 53% 13 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 47% 8 Delegates

South Dakota Democratic Senate Primary
Jason Frerichs 88%
other assorted candidates 12%
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #92 on: February 11, 2017, 07:35:01 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 07:41:05 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Super Tuesday four  Republican Primary


Super Tuesday four Republican Primary
Susan Martinez 153 Delegates
Rand Paul 141 Delegates


California Republican Presidential Primary 172 Delegates
Susan Martinez 51% 88 Delegates
Rand Paul 49% 84 Delegates

Montana Republican Presidential Primary April 28th 27 Delegates
Rand Paul 61% 16 Delegates
Susan Martinez 39% 9 Delegates

Montana Republican Governors Primary
Ryan Zinke 53%
Tim Fox 47%

Montana Republican Senate Primary
Steve Daines Acclaimed

New Jersey Republican Presidential Primary 51 Delegates
Susan Martinez 56% 29 Delegates
Rand Paul 44% 22 Delegates


New Jersey Republican Senate Primary
Thomas Kean Jr. Acclaimed

New Mexico Republican Presidential Primary 24 Delegates
Susan Martinez 62% 15 Delegates
Rand Paul 38% 9 Delegates

New Mexico Republican Senate Primary
Richard Berry 91%
other assorted candidates 9%


South Dakota Republican Presidential Primary 29 Delegates
Rand Paul 58% 17 Delegates
Susan Martinez 42% 12 Delegates

South Dakota Republican Senate Primary
Mike Rounds 90%
Other assorted candidates 10%
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #93 on: February 11, 2017, 08:43:32 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 09:30:40 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »

Delegate Counts (Up to and including May 19th)

Democrats (2,382 needed to win)
Russ Feingold 2499 Delegates (Presumptive Nominee)
Hillary Clinton 2253 Delegates*

Republicans (1237 needed to win)
Rand Paul 1153 Delegates
Susan Martinez  1137 Delegates
Ted Cruz* 152 Delegates  
Tim Scott* 25 Delegates
Charlie Baker* 4 Delegates
(I was off 6 delegates so I deducted 3 from both Martinez and Paul)
*(Suspended Campaign)


Republican Primary National
Susan Martinez 50%(-)
Rand Paul 49%(-)
Undecided 1%(-)

-President Hillary Clinton suspends her campaign endorsing Presumptive Democratic nominee Russ Feingold for President.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #94 on: February 11, 2017, 09:13:07 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2017, 09:26:09 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Final Maps

Democratic Primary



Republican Primary


Next up conventions, remainder of primary's and VP picks.
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Free Bird
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #95 on: February 11, 2017, 09:16:28 PM »
Prediction: Cruz releases his delegates to vote for Rand
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Enduro
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« Reply #96 on: February 11, 2017, 10:28:37 PM »
Loving the timeline. Rooting for Paul to take it all the way.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #97 on: February 12, 2017, 08:37:32 PM »
The morning after

With Russ Feingold the presumptive Democratic nominee and the GOP nomination set to go to a historic brokered convention. Pundits begin to release their first forecast maps, while the campaigns themselves are scrambling to choose their running mates.

Russ Feingold rumored running mate short list  (listed by betting market %)
Senator Cory Booker 31
Senator Katie McGinty 24
Senator Kamala Harris 17
Vice President Tim Kaine 9
Treasury Secretary Patty Murray 6


Rand Paul rumored running mate short list  (listed by betting market %)
Senator Shelley Moore Capito 35
Senator Cathy McMorris Rodgers 31
Former Governor  Nikki Haley 13
Senator Brian Sandoval 9

Susan Martinez rumored running mate short list  (listed by betting market %)
Senator John Thune 31
Governor Cory Gardner 25
Former Senator Rob Portman 16
Governor Charlie Baker 11

Polling Average June 5th
Russ Feingold 40%
Susan Martinez 37%
Donald Trump/Jim Webb 11%
Undecided/other 12%

Russ Feingold 40%
Rand Paul 35%
Donald Trump/Jim Webb 8%
Undecided/other 17%

(I will have maps up soon)
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #98 on: February 13, 2017, 04:25:29 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 10:00:48 PM by Speaker 1184AZ »
90% Strong
60% Likley
30% Lean
Green Tossup


Russ Feingold vs Susan Martinez



Democratic 231 EV
Republican 206 EV
Tossup 101 EV

Russ Feingold vs Rand Paul


Democratic 265 EV
Republican 164 EV
Tossup 109 EV
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #99 on: February 13, 2017, 04:53:43 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2017, 12:47:17 AM by Speaker 1184AZ »
Senate Match-ups and ratings

Edit.Forgot to add the Nevada special election.

Alabama
 Martha Roby (R) vs Bobby Bright (D) (Jeff Sessions retiring) (Safe R)

Alaska
Dan Sullivan (I) (R) vs Byron Mallott (D) (Lean R)

Arkansas
Tom Cotton (I) (R) vs Conner Eldridge (D) (Safe R)

Colorado
 Cynthia Coffman (I) (R) vs Ed Perlmutter (D) (Tossup)

Delaware
 Chris Coons (I) (D) vs Tom Kovach (R) (Safe D)

Georgia
David Perdue (I) (R) vs Jason Carter (D) (Tossup)

Idaho
Raśl Labrador (R) vs Jerry Brady (D)  (Jim Risch Retiring) (Safe R)

Illinois
 Mark Kirk (I) (R) vs Daniel Biss (D) (Tossup)

Iowa
Joni Ernst (I) (R) vs Kevin McCarthy (D) (Lean R)

Kansas
Mike Pompeo (R) vs Chad Taylor (D) (Safe R) (Pat Roberts Retiring)

Kentucky
 Thomas Massie (I) (R) vs Andy Beshear (D) (Lean R)

Louisiana
Top two primary results: Bill Cassidy (I) (R) 45% John Bel Edwards (D) 42% other 13% (Runoff Tossup)

Maine
Susan Collins (I) (R) vs Emily Cain (D) (Likley R)

Massachusetts
Ed Markey (I) (D) vs Gabriel Gomez (R) (Likley D)

Michigan
Gary Peters (I) (D) vs Bill Schuette (R) (lean D)

Minnesota
Al Franken (I) (D) vs Erik Paulsen (R) (lean D)

Mississippi
Phil Bryant (R) vs Brandon Presley (D) (Likley R) (Thad Cochran retiring)

Montana
Steve Daines (I) (R) vs Steve Bullock (D) (Tossup)

Nebraska
Ben Sasse (I) (R) vs Steve Lathrop (D) (Safe R)

Nevada (special)
Mark Amodie (I) (R) vs Ruben Kithuen (D) (Tossup)

New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (I) (D) vs Chris Sununu (R) (Tossup)

New Jersey
Cory Booker (I) (D) vs Tom Kean (D) (likely D)

New Mexico
Tom Udall (I) (D)  vs Richard Berry (R) (likely D)

Continued on next post
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