2020: The GOP at a Crossroads

[Heisenberg]

Tom Smith as the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania Governor? If it's this guy (from the 2012 Senate race), he's dead. Unless he lives until at least November 2018 in this timeline, you should change it to Jim Cawley (Corbett's LG) or someone. It wouldn't matter too much, since Republicans lost that race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Smith_(Pennsylvania_politician)
Also, interesting that Tester survives, as does Sherrod Brown, who wins even as DeWine wins the governorship. Also, in Illinois and Colorado, wouldn't the incoming governors appoint their replacements, and not the old governors?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Tom Smith as the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania Governor? If it's this guy (from the 2012 Senate race), he's dead. Unless he lives until at least November 2018 in this timeline, you should change it to Jim Cawley (Corbett's LG) or someone. It wouldn't matter too much, since Republicans lost that race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Smith_(Pennsylvania_politician)
Also, interesting that Tester survives, as does Sherrod Brown, who wins even as DeWine wins the governorship. Also, in Illinois and Colorado, wouldn't the incoming governors appoint their replacements, and not the old governors?

I will fix those, it was my understanding that the outgoing Governor appointed the new Senator in that case, regardless I will leave the senators who were appointed as is, it wouldn't affect the senate standings either way. Thanks for the feedback.

[Heisenberg]

Tom Smith as the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania Governor? If it's this guy (from the 2012 Senate race), he's dead. Unless he lives until at least November 2018 in this timeline, you should change it to Jim Cawley (Corbett's LG) or someone. It wouldn't matter too much, since Republicans lost that race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Smith_(Pennsylvania_politician)
Also, interesting that Tester survives, as does Sherrod Brown, who wins even as DeWine wins the governorship. Also, in Illinois and Colorado, wouldn't the incoming governors appoint their replacements, and not the old governors?

I will fix those, it was my understanding that the outgoing Governor appointed the new Senator in that case, regardless I will leave the senators who were appointed as is, it wouldn't affect the senate standings either way. Thanks for the feedback.

I enjoy reading (and writing) timelines. I know that the two appointees basically cancel each other out, but why would Gardner and Durbin appoint people of the opposite party? Also, the special elections would be in 2019, not 2017.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Tom Smith as the Republican nominee for Pennsylvania Governor? If it's this guy (from the 2012 Senate race), he's dead. Unless he lives until at least November 2018 in this timeline, you should change it to Jim Cawley (Corbett's LG) or someone. It wouldn't matter too much, since Republicans lost that race.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Smith_(Pennsylvania_politician)
Also, interesting that Tester survives, as does Sherrod Brown, who wins even as DeWine wins the governorship. Also, in Illinois and Colorado, wouldn't the incoming governors appoint their replacements, and not the old governors?

I will fix those, it was my understanding that the outgoing Governor appointed the new Senator in that case, regardless I will leave the senators who were appointed as is, it wouldn't affect the senate standings either way. Thanks for the feedback.

I enjoy reading (and writing) timelines. I know that the two appointees basically cancel each other out, but why would Gardner and Durbin appoint people of the opposite party? Also, the special elections would be in 2019, not 2017.

I will change those.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Chapter 1: The Campaign begins 2019

January 30th 2019, New York NY

Today Hillary Clinton officially kicked off her Re-Election Campaign, focusing on the governments strong handling of the economy, tougher gun control initiatives as well as comprehensive immigration reform. Clinton has a slight favorably rating and looks like an early favorite for Re-Election.

February 15th 2019, Houston Texas

Ted Cruz officially launched is second run to the White House. Cruz  focused on the large national debt and the 2 straight deficit budgets proposed by Hillary Clinton, promising to balance the budget by 2024. Cruz also promised to get an Constitutional Amendment passed allowing states to decide abortion policy, as well as amending the Dream Act.  

March 3rd 2019,Louisville Kentucky

Rand Paul Kicked off his campaign in Louisville. Paul focused on the need to focus on more diplomatic foreign policy, the institution of a flat tax, as well as the repeal some of the Patriot Act. Paul wants to end the ban on gun sales for those on the terror watch list.

March 15th 2019 Boston Massachusetts
 
Charlie Baker kicked off his campaign representing the
moderate wing of the GOP. Baker by far ran the most Pro Business and status quo campaign when it came to the issues. Baker proposed reforming the terror watch list, lower taxes on small businesses, instituting a small carbon tax to help fund infrastructure projects, as well as Balance the Budget by 2024.

March 28th 2019,Charleston South Carolina

Scott pledged to push for amendments to both the Dream Act and Affordable Care Act. Scott also proposed passing a 20 week abortion act, however stated he would respect the Supreme courts decision on South Carolina 20 week Abortion Ban, and would not push for a Constitutional Amendment on abortion.

April 3rd 2019, Santa Fe New Mexico
 
New Mexico Senator Susana Martinez kicked off her campaign on the promise to focus on balancing the budget, commit to solving the national debt crisis. Martinez called the immigration reforms of the Clinton campaign as settled law, as well as the issue of Abortion.    

April 15th 2019, Madison Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton will face a major primary challenger after all. Feingold pledged to run a true  progressive campaign. Feingold pledged that if elected he would introduce universal health care , pass legislation that would break up the big banks. Feingold pledged to expand the university tuition credit. While viewed as a major underdog, most pundits refuse to entirely rule out Feingold  winning the Democratic primary.

I will post primary polls and schedule next post.  

[Heisenberg]

Nice. I love this timeline.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Chapter 2: Preview of the Primary

May 1st-primary polls (Average)

Democratic Primary National
Hillary Clinton 50%
Russ Feingold 35%
Undecided 15%

Democratic Primary Iowa
Hillary Clinton 45%
Russ Feingold  42%
Undecided 13%

Democratic Primary NH
Hillary Clinton 47%
Russ Feingold 40%
Undecided 13%

Democratic Primary Nevada
Hillary Clinton 52%
Russ Feingold 37%
Undecided 11%

Democratic Primary South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 58%
Russ Feingold 30%
Undecided 12%

Republican Primary National
Tim Scott 25%
Rand Paul 23%
Ted Cruz 17%
Susana Martinez 15%
Charlie Baker 9%
Undecided 11%

Republican Primary Iowa
Ted Cruz 25%
Rand Paul 20%
Tim Scott 18%
Susana Martinez 12%
Charlie Baker 7%
Undecided 18%

Republican Primary NH
Tim Scott 22%
Rand Paul 20%
Susana Martinez 19%
Charlie Baker 13%
Ted Cruz 10%
Undecided 16%

Republican Primary Nevada
Susana Martinez 23%
Tim Scott 21%
Rand Paul 20%
Ted Cruz 15%
Charlie Baker 10%
Undecided 11%

Republican Primary South Carolina
Tim Scott 39%
Ted Cruz 19%
Rand Paul 13%
Susana Martinez 11%
Charlie Baker 10%
Undecided 8%

Schedule (Unless otherwise noted, all primaries are for both parties, the only Caucus is Iowa)
February 3rd Iowa Caucus
February 11th NH
February 18th Nevada
February 22end South Carolina  
March 3rd Super Tuesday Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Tennessee, Minnesota
March 7th Kansas,Louisiana, Maine
March 10th Mississippi, Idaho, Hawaii
March 17th Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, Arizona, Wisconsin
March 31st Wyoming,Utah, North Dakota
April 7th New York
April 14th Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, Delaware and Washington DC
April 21st Washington,Oregon, Colorado and Alaska
April 28th Indiana
May 5th West Virginia and Nebraska
May 12th Kentucky
May 19th Oklahoma and Texas  
June 2end Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey and California

Rules:The Democrats will be using similar rules as 2016 except requiring super delegates to vote for the winner of their state on the first ballot. Super delegates are free to vote for whoever they want on the second ballot.

The GOP voted to switch their delegate rules to be similar to the Democratic rules, with a 10% viability threshold required to win delegates.

Both Parties have abolished Caucuses except for Iowa.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Nice. I love this timeline.

Thanks!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Kentucky Governor Primary Elections

Republican
Matt Bevin 85%
Other 15%

Democrat
Alison Lundergan Grimes 53%
Greg Fischer 44%
Other 3%

Polling Average June 1st
Matt Bevin 43%
Alison Lundergan Grimes 40%
Undecided/Other 17%

Illinois Senate Primary

Democrat
Lisa Madigan Acclaimed

Republican
Mark Kirk Acclaimed

Polling Average June 1st
Lisa Madigan  45%
Mark Kirk 42%
Undecided 12%

[Kingpoleon]

Why didn't James Comer run in Kentucky?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

June Update

June 10th-USA Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal from the State of Virginia over the states right to work law that had previously been struck down by the  4th Circuit Court.

June 15th- Just 9 years after most campaign finance regulations are struck down by the Supreme Court  Oregon Governor Kate Brown signs a law that ban's corporate and union donations for political campaigns. Conservative groups announce they will challenge what they call a blatantly unconstitutional law in federal court.

June 23rd-Ruth Bader Ginsburg announces her impending retirement from the court upon a successor being chosen.  

June 25th-Colorado held a Senate Primary today with the following results:
Republican
Cynthia Coffman 88%
Other 12%

Democrat
 John Hickenlooper 91%
Other 9%


June 27th- In a 6-3 decision the USA Supreme Court strikes down South Carolina's 20 week Abortion Ban, effectively ending any restrictions on abortion.  In response Cruz  announces the need for a constitutional amendment restricting Abortion. Meanwhile the remaining candidates suggest that it is time to move on to other issues.  In the aftermath of the decision Ted Cruz surged to nearly 40% in Iowa and 30% nationally, however this did not last.  President Hillary Clinton calls the ruling a major victory, while VP Tim Kaine added he felt the issue of abortion was settled law.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Why didn't James Comer run in Kentucky?

James Comer like other considered a primary Challenge, however largely declined due to Bevin s large Fundraising advantage and his strong approval ratings with Republicans. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

(Do you want me to publish updates on the day to day camping events or just Debate recaps and results nights)

July Update
July 7th-Vermont passes a bill restoring much of the Campaign Finance restrictions that were struck down by the Supreme Court in 2010. Conservative groups pledge to fight this bill in court.

July 12th-California Bans the Death Penalty today the previous attempt to do so failed by just 15,000 votes in 2016.

July 17th-Tammy Baldwin unexpectedly resigns from Cabinet, a few days later she would endorse Feingold  a few days later. Clinton selected Former Senator Bernie Sanders as Education Secretary, he was confirmed by the senate a few days later.

July 23rd-  In a debate watched by millions Russ Feingold  was seen as the big winner in the Democratic Primary poll, Feingold  bashed Clinton on reversing on her pledge to pass campaign finance reform, Obama Care reform. Feingold  touted his progressive agenda, gaining praise by many across the country.

July 30th-In the first GOP debate, Susan Martinez was seen as the winner, however most  pundits noted Cruz had a good night along with Rand Paul.

Polling Update next  

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Polling Averages-August 1

August 1st-primary polls (Average)

Democratic Primary National
Hillary Clinton 45%(-5)
Russ Feingold 40% (+5)
Undecided 15% (-)

Democratic Primary Iowa
Russ Feingold  49%(+7)
Hillary Clinton 40%(-5)
Undecided 11%(-2)

Democratic Primary NH
Russ Feingold 42% (+2)
Hillary Clinton 41% (-6)
Undecided 17% (+4)

Democratic Primary Nevada
Hillary Clinton 45% (-7)
Russ Feingold 41% (+4)
Undecided 14% (+3)

Democratic Primary South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 55% (-3)
Russ Feingold 33%(+3)
Undecided 12%(-)

Republican Primary National
Ted Cruz 24% (+7)
Susana Martinez 21%(+6)
Tim Scott 20% (-5)
Rand Paul 20%(-3)
Charlie Baker 7% (-2)
Undecided 8%(-3)

Republican Primary Iowa
Ted Cruz 31% (+6)
Rand Paul 22% (+2)
Tim Scott 15% (-3)
Susana Martinez 14%(+2)
Charlie Baker 6%(-1)
Undecided 12%(-6)

Republican Primary NH
Susana Martinez 25%(+6)
Tim Scott 20% (-2)
Rand Paul 17% (-3)
Ted Cruz 12%(+2)
Charlie Baker 11% (-2)
Undecided 15%(-1)

Republican Primary Nevada
Susana Martinez 30%(+7)
Ted Cruz 20% (+5)
Rand Paul 20%(-)
Tim Scott 18% (-3)
Charlie Baker 7% (-3)
Undecided 5%(-6)

Republican Primary South Carolina
Tim Scott 35% (-4)
Ted Cruz 23%(+4)
Susana Martinez 13% (+2)
Rand Paul 10% (-3)
Charlie Baker 10% (-)
Undecided 9% (+1)

Other Races
Polling Average August 1st-Kentucky Governor
Matt Bevin 40% (-3)
Alison Lundergan Grimes 40% (-)
Undecided/Other 17% (+3)

Polling Average August 1st-Illinois Governor
Lisa Madigan  43% (-2)
Mark Kirk 43% (+1)
Undecided 13% (+1)

Polling Average August 1st-Colorado Governor
Cynthia Coffman 42%
John Hickenlooper  40%
Undecided 18%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

August Update

USA Senators not Seeking Re-Election
Jeff Sessions-Alabama
Jim Risch-Idaho
Pat Roberts-Kansas
Thad Cochran-Mississippi

August 5th-Western Leaders announce an agreement on a new Western Free Trade Deal, that will largely replace NAFTA, the agreement is between USA, Canada, Mexico, UK, Scotland (who becomes an Independent nation in 2018), Norway, Germany, France, Ireland, Netherlands and Belgium.  

August 20-Mississippi Primary Results Governor:
Republican Primary
Chris McDaniel 35%
Stacey E. Pickering 33%
Tate Reeves 32%

Runoff
Chris McDaniel 50.8%
Stacey E. Pickering 49.2%

Democratic Primary
Jim Hood 88%
Other 12%

August 27th
Hillary Clinton announces Sri Srinivasan as her Supreme Court nominee. Despite calls by some Republicans to block the nomination, the senate confirms the pick.

[Dave1]

I think the GOP will be hitting a downturn in it's fortunes in Congress and will lose the Senate by 2018 and the House of Representatives by 2018 or at the very latest 2020. I think Donald Trump narrowly wins reelection in 2020 over the ticket of Cory Booker-Julian Castro

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Paul 2016!!!!! Wish Christie ran as a TRUMP loyalist tbh. Oh, also go Feingold!!!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

September Update
Sept. 3-Jim Hood resigns as Attorney General to spend more time focusing on the Mississippi Governors race.  Hillary Clinton appoints Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (she is later confirmed by the Senate) to replace Hood. Nevada Governor Joe Heck appoints Mark Amodei as Senator from Nevada. Amodei will face a special election in 2020.

Sept.10-Hillary Clinton confirms plans to hold a referendum alongside the 2020 Presidential Election on ratifying the WFTD. Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are announced as Co-Chairs of the Yes Campaign. Donald Trump along with Jeff Sessions are appointed Co-Chairs of the No campaign

Sept 16-Hillary Clinton signs into law a bill legalizing medical marijuana nationally, however the bill does nothing to deal with Recreational use.

Sept 21-The federal government and various state governments come to an agreement on holding a 50 state referendum next November on whether to hold a constitutional convention. The referendum is officially non binding but each state has pledged to support a convention if their state supports it. It would require 34 states voting in favor of a convention to trigger one.
   

[Pragmatic Conservative]

October Update

Oct 5-Donald Trump announces that he plans on running as an Independent in the 2020 Presidential Election. Trump hires Chris Christie and Ben Carson as campaign advisors. Trump names Jim Webb as his running mate shortly after his announcement.

Oct 15-In the Second Democratic debate both  Hillary Clinton and Russ Feingold are regarded as having a good debate, with no clear winner. The press however largely focuses on what they see as a bounce back performance by Clinton from the first debate

Oct 22-Susan Martinez is seen as the big winner in the Second Republican primary debate, Martinez struck a more moderate tone focusing on balancing the budget and controlling government spending.       

 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Polling Average November 1st and Louisiana Governor Primary Results

November 1st

Democratic Primary National
Hillary Clinton 43%(-2)
Russ Feingold 43% (+3)
Undecided 14% (-1)

Democratic Primary Iowa
Russ Feingold  51%(+2)
Hillary Clinton 40%(-)
Undecided 9%(-2)

Democratic Primary NH
Russ Feingold 47% (+5)
Hillary Clinton 40% (-1)
Undecided 15% (-2)

Democratic Primary Nevada
Russ Feingold 46% (+5)
Hillary Clinton 40% (-5)
Undecided 14% (-)

Democratic Primary South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 52% (-3)
Russ Feingold 34%(+1)
Undecided 14%(+2)

Republican Primary National
Susana Martinez 27%(+6)
Ted Cruz 24% (-)
Rand Paul 18%(-2)
Tim Scott 15% (-5)
Charlie Baker 9% (+2)
Undecided 7%(-1)

Republican Primary Iowa
Ted Cruz 31% (-)
Rand Paul 22% (-)
Susana Martinez 21%(+7)
Tim Scott 11% (-4)
Charlie Baker 6%(-)
Undecided 12%(+3)

Republican Primary NH
Susana Martinez 30%(+5)
Rand Paul 17% (-)
Tim Scott 17% (-3)
Ted Cruz 13%(+1)
Charlie Baker 13% (+2)
Undecided 10%(-5)

Republican Primary Nevada
Susana Martinez 33%(+3)
Ted Cruz 18% (-2)
Rand Paul 18%(-2)
Tim Scott 15% (-3)
Charlie Baker 10% (+3)
Undecided 6%(+1)

Republican Primary South Carolina
Tim Scott 31% (-4)
Ted Cruz 25%(+2)
Susana Martinez 15% (+2)
Rand Paul 10% (-)
Charlie Baker 10% (-)
Undecided 9% (-)

Other Races
Polling Average August 1st-Kentucky Governor
Matt Bevin 44% (+4)
Alison Lundergan Grimes 42% (+2)
Undecided/Other 11% (-6)

Polling Average August 1st-Illinois Governor
Mark Kirk 48% (+5)
Lisa Madigan  45% (+2)
Undecided 6% (-7)

Polling Average August 1st-Colorado Governor
Cynthia Coffman 46% (+4)
John Hickenlooper  42% (+2)
Undecided 12% (-6)

Polling Average August 1st-Mississipi Governor
Chris McDaniel 45%
Jim Hood 45%
Undecided/Other 10%

Louisiana Governor Primary
John Bel Edwards (D) 40%
John Neely Kennedy (R) 25%
Buddy Caldwell (R) 22%
Burl Cain (R) 10%
Other 3%

[NHI]

Keep it up!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Keep it up!

Thanks!

I will have another update later today, is their anyone that would be interested in making state county maps for Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana Senate elections; plus Illinois and Colorado Senate elections. 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

November 2019 Election Results

Kentucky

In an Election night surprise Kentucky SOS Alison Lundergan Grimes defeats Incumbent Governor Matt Bevin 50-48 in an close race. Bevin had previously been seen as a clear favorite for Re-Election  through much of his term, however Grimes was credited on running a strong campaign receiving the support of   Independents  and some moderate Republicans.

Alison Lundergan Grimes D 50%
Matt Bevin R (I) 48%
Other 2%
Democratic gain from Republicans

Mississippi
 
In what was expected to be a close election, Jim Hood defeated Tea party aligned candidate Chris McDaniel in what was an open seat. Hood's win caused many pundits to start discussing how Mississippi would become a future target for Democrats.
Jim Hood D 51%
Chris McDaniel R 48%
Other 1%
Democratic gain from Republicans

Illinois

Despite the partisan lean of the state Former Senator Mark Kirk defeated appointed senator Lisa Madigan in what proved to be a close election campaign. Some pundits would go on to speculate Mark Kirk as a future VP nominee.
Mark Kirk 52%
Lisa Madigan  48%
Republican gain from Democrats

Colorado

In one of the closest races on election night, appointed Senator Cynthia Coffman would go on to defeat former Governor John Hickenlooper. Many Republicans saw this as a big victory, after many previous electoral frustrations in Colorado.
Cynthia Coffman 50.5%
John Hickenlooper 49.5%
Republican Hold.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

November and Louisiana Governors Runoff

November 12th-In a debate seen around the country, Russ Feingold is called  the big winner over Hillary Clinton. Feingold chooses to focus on the sluggish economy, and what he calls a lack of significant progress on racial relations. After the debate many begin to see Feingold  as a serious threat for the nomination, with many calling the Democratic primary a tossup.

November 19th-For the third straight debate Susana Martinez delivers a strong debate performance. Rand Paul also emerges as Martinez's biggest challenger. Many in the media proclaim Martinez the overwhelming favorite for the GOP nomination.  

November 26th-Louisiana Governor Runoff election results.

In what proved to be one of the closest Gubernatorial election results in state history, Governor John Bel Edwards won re-election by the narrowest of margins.

John Bel Edwards (I) D 50% + 2507 votes
John Neely Kennedy R 50%-2507 votes
Democratic Hold

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Polling Average November 1st and Louisiana Governor Primary Results

November 1st

Democratic Primary National
Russ Feingold 47% (+4)
Hillary Clinton 41%(-2)
Undecided 12% (-2)

Democratic Primary Iowa
Russ Feingold  53%(+2)
Hillary Clinton 40%(-)
Undecided 7%(-2)

Democratic Primary NH
Russ Feingold 48% (+1)
Hillary Clinton 40% (-)
Undecided 14% (-1)

Democratic Primary Nevada
Russ Feingold 49% (+3)
Hillary Clinton 42% (+2)
Undecided 9% (-5)

Democratic Primary South Carolina
Hillary Clinton 51% (-1)
Russ Feingold 36%(+2)
Undecided 13%(-1)

Republican Primary National
Susana Martinez 33%(+6)
Rand Paul 23%(+5)
Ted Cruz 21% (-3)
Tim Scott 12% (-3)
Charlie Baker 7% (-2)
Undecided 4%(-3)

Republican Primary Iowa
Ted Cruz 26% (-5)
Rand Paul 25% (+3)
Susana Martinez 24%(+3)
Tim Scott 10% (-1)
Charlie Baker 5%(-1)
Undecided 10%(-2)

Republican Primary NH
Susana Martinez 31%(+1)
Rand Paul 23% (+6)
Charlie Baker 14% (+1)
Tim Scott 13% (-4)
Ted Cruz 11%(-2)
Undecided 8%(-2)

Republican Primary Nevada
Susana Martinez 37%(+4)
Rand Paul 23%(+5)
Ted Cruz 14% (-4)
Tim Scott 13% (-2)
Charlie Baker 9% (-1)
Undecided 4%(-2)

Republican Primary South Carolina
Tim Scott 30% (-1)
Ted Cruz 23%(-2)
Susana Martinez 18% (+3)
Rand Paul 11% (+1)
Charlie Baker 11% (+1)
Undecided 7% (-2)