Clinton-Trump-Johnson

[pbrower2a]

Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, NH 5, OH 1, PA 4, VA 4

Add or replace: GA 3, MA 3

Stein strength map (why not?) -- same intensity of color as for Johnson

[pbrower2a]

Alabama, two-way race. Johnson irrelevant if Trump is over 50%.

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia, WSB-TV (ABC-2, Atlanta), rk Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Georgia is a legitimate swing state this year.

Missouri may not be:

Missouri, SurveyUSA, KSDK-TV (NBC-5, St. Louis)



We get few polls of Massachusetts, which will definitely not be a swing state:

49% Clinton
31% Trump
  4% Johnson
  3% Stein

http://consumerenergyalliance.org/2016/06/energy-costs-infrastructure-important-bay-staters


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

Three-way race:

Small states and districts in area:
CT: D5,6;4 MA: D14,4;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

[pbrower2a]

Missouri may not be:

Missouri, SurveyUSA, KSDK-TV (NBC-5, St. Louis)




But Mason-Dixon has a poll of Missouri and suggests this:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-clinton-in-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_ecbca03a-ea36-5bef-bf8c-fcb817cc7c31.html

http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/a9/ea922fa3-95f2-55e3-a1df-5ce1ab4e2a2f/579a6a9a2b00d.pdf.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 9
Stein 1

Poll was conducted from July 23-24. 625 LV, Mason-Dixon. 


I will need to average these, as they come from the same week.


That's Trump 43.5, Clinton 39, Johnson 9.5 Rounding to the even number for a half, that's 44-39, 10 Figuring that "likely voters" are whiter and older, such suggests that Missouri will be closer than "my" average. The PPP poll is older and it does not figure in, thank you. 

Back to swing status for Missouri.





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

Three-way race:

Small states and districts in area:
CT: D5,6;4 MA: D14,4;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

This is my last post on this thread, as I am transferring this data to another thread.  I am also locking this thread when I have my first completed post on the new thread of post-convention polling.  I also intend to show the binary polling in the same new thread.