Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[The Other Castro]

CA: 53-46 Clinton
NJ: 60-40 Clinton
NM: 55-45 Clinton
MT: 62-38 Sanders
SD: 57-43 Sanders
ND: 65-35 Sanders

[Pragmatic Conservative]

CA: 55-45 Clinton
NJ: 62-38 Clinton
NM: 58-42 Clinton
MT: 57-43 Sanders
SD: 51-49 Clinton
ND: 61-39 Sanders

[Xing]

I still don't see why people are predicting that Clinton will win SD. She won in '08 because she campaigned heavily there, and it was also a closed primary. I mean, anything's possible, but it would go completely against the demographics for her to win there.

CA: Clinton 52-47
MT: Sanders 60-39
NJ: Clinton 61-39
NM: Clinton 56-44
ND: Sanders 66-34
SD: Sanders 55-45

[Crumpets]

I still don't see why people are predicting that Clinton will win SD. She won in '08 because she campaigned heavily there, and it was also a closed primary. I mean, anything's possible, but it would go completely against the demographics for her to win there.

CA: Clinton 52-47
MT: Sanders 60-39
NJ: Clinton 61-39
NM: Clinton 56-44
ND: Sanders 66-34
SD: Sanders 55-45

There was also a poll (probably junk, but beggars can't be choosers) showing her up there recently. Seeing as neither really campaigned there, it's not unreasonable to think it might have just been staying Clinton +3 or whatever it was, particularly with national polls moving in her favor.

[LLR]

My predictions from Sunday:

California: Hillary Clinton 56%, Bernie Sanders 43%
Montana: Bernie Sanders 54%, Hillary Clinton 43%
New Jersey: Hillary Clinton 63%, Bernie Sanders 34%
New Mexico: Hillary Clinton 52%, Bernie Sanders 46%
North Dakota: Bernie Sanders 63%, Hillary Clinton 37%
South Dakota: Hillary Clinton 51%, Bernie Sanders 47%

Revised:

CA: Clinton 51-46
MT: Sanders 56-39
NJ: Clinton 64-36
NM: Clinton 53-47
ND: Sanders 65-32
SD: Clinton 51-49

[Tender Branson]

In NJ, NM and SD there are actually only Hillary and Bernie left on the ballot.

So, all your predictions should add up to 100%.

In CA and ND (caucus) there are still many other candidates to select and in MT there's "no preference".

https://interactives.ap.org/2016/election-night/?date=0607

[Boston Bread]

Might as well join in:

CA: 52-47 Clinton
MT: 59-39 Sanders
NJ: 58-42 Clinton
NM: 53-47 Clinton
ND: 65-33 Sanders
SD: 54-46 Sanders

[Xing]

I still don't see why people are predicting that Clinton will win SD. She won in '08 because she campaigned heavily there, and it was also a closed primary. I mean, anything's possible, but it would go completely against the demographics for her to win there.

CA: Clinton 52-47
MT: Sanders 60-39
NJ: Clinton 61-39
NM: Clinton 56-44
ND: Sanders 66-34
SD: Sanders 55-45

There was also a poll (probably junk, but beggars can't be choosers) showing her up there recently. Seeing as neither really campaigned there, it's not unreasonable to think it might have just been staying Clinton +3 or whatever it was, particularly with national polls moving in her favor.

True, but that was only one poll. A poll taken in OR after Sanders had spent some time there still showed Clinton up 15, and we know how that turned out. I'd go with the demographics over a single poll.

[NOVA Green]

The interesting question lost in all of this is: will LA-area Asians split their Bernie/Hillary vote differently from Silicon Valley-area Asians? If so, what will be the differences?

Well we don't have tons of data to forecast, and unfortunately we won't really know until precinct level results are published, so far as I can tell.

However it is worth noting that the early voting numbers from California's 17th congressional district that is in the heart of Silicon Valley (Which is 50% Asian-American) are 48.7-51.3 Bernie-Hillary which includes cities like Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Milipitas that Hillary won from 10-15 points in 2008 and the later by over 2:1.

Needless to say, this is potentially a very positive sign for Bernie in the South Bay and Santa Clara County, and combined with early vote polls from the 19th Congressional district that covers most of San Jose (45-55 Clinton) that Clinton won by 20 points in 2008 could well indicate a significant upset in the largest population center in the region.

In SF, Hillary won a large majority of Asian-American precincts in the City in 2008, so it will definitely be interesting to see if there is a swing among the heavily Chinese-American vote from '08 to '16. The early voting from the bulk of the city (Excluding South SF and Daly City) has a 13 point Hillary lead, although this doesn't really give us much of an idea since the electoral coalitions in the City will be a bit different from '08.

Not so sure about '08 in SoCal and the sample sizes of early votes by CDs are much smaller and the Asian-American population is split over multiple CDs making it more difficult to discern any potential clues for Today.

[Crumpets]

My guesses:

CA: Clinton 54, Sanders 45
NM: Clinton 59, Sanders 41
MT: Sanders 61, Clinton 39
ND: Sanders 65, Clinton 34
SD: Clinton 52, Sanders 48
NJ: Clinton 62, Sanders 38

[Holmes]

CA: Clinton 54, Sanders 45
NM: Clinton 55, Sanders 44
MT: Sanders 56, Clinton 42
ND: Sanders 73, Clinton 27
SD: Clinton 51, Sanders 49
NJ: Clinton 59, Sanders 40

[Spark]

CA: Clinton 52% Sanders 48%
NJ: Clinton 58% Sanders 42%
NM: Clinton 56% Sanders 44%
MT: Sanders 63% Clinton 37%
SD: Sanders 54% Clinton 45%
ND: Sanders 68% Clinton 32%

[Hydera]

CA: Clinton 53% Sanders 47%
NJ: Clinton 63% Sanders 37%
NM: Clinton 57% Sanders 43%
MT: Sanders 66% Clinton 33%
SD: Sanders 56% Clinton 44%
ND: Sanders 69% Clinton 29%

[Chief Justice Keef]

CA: Sanders 50% Clinton 49%
NJ: Clinton 58% Sanders 42%
NM: Clinton 53% Sanders 47%
MT: Sanders 69% Clinton 31%
SD: Sanders 59% Clinton 41%
ND: Sanders 73% Clinton 27%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sanders: Dakotas and Montana

Clinton: California, New Jersey and New Mexico

[RI]

There's a non-zero chance of a Clinton sweep. Really depends on how many Sanders supporters heard about Clinton clinching and how they react to that. Historically, Sanders should see a drop in support.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's a non-zero chance of a Clinton sweep. Really depends on how many Sanders supporters heard about Clinton clinching and how they react to that. Historically, Sanders should see a drop in support.

She's hopeless in North Dakota. Caucus with no absentees.

[RI]

There's a non-zero chance of a Clinton sweep. Really depends on how many Sanders supporters heard about Clinton clinching and how they react to that. Historically, Sanders should see a drop in support.

She's hopeless in North Dakota. Caucus with no absentees.

Doesn't matter if Sanders supporters are too demoralized to show up and leaners accept what is presented as inevitable, as is what usually happens in situations like this.

[Holmes]

People are really bullish on Sanders in Montana.

[ElectionsGuy]

CA: 52-47 Clinton
MT: 58-41 Sanders
NJ: 60-40 Clinton
NM: 55-45 Clinton
ND: 65-35 Sanders
SD: 54-46 Sanders

[Chief Justice Keef]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think the big surprise for most will be the central valley mostly going to Sanders. Parts of the region are incredibly poor and rural, there's reasons to believe the Hispanics here won't be as friendly to Clinton as Hispanics in SoCal or the Bay area.

[ElectionsGuy]

MSNBC changed their graphics recently. Honestly I'm not the biggest fan.

[Eraserhead]

It's really a crime that we're not going to get a proper exit poll in California tonight.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's really a crime that we're not going to get a proper exit poll in California tonight.