Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[psychprofessor]

Haven't we seen a generally downturn in turnout since the dropout of Cruz and Kasich? South Dakota was only a 56/44 R split, Montana a 54/46 split, Oregon a 62/38 D split. This whole primary we've seen the trend of Republicans turning out far better than Democrats, except for these last few contests. I agree Orange County looks terrible for Republicans, and maybe not a 55/45 split, but I think Republicans would have more votes with a contested Republican race. The presidential race is the most powerful force in bringing out people to vote, more than local or statewide races ever could.

Yep. Though it's quite funny seeing all the Republicans and pundits who were ranting about "MUH PRIMARY TURNOUTZ MAKE THESE STATES SAFE R!!!!111!" now furiously backpedalling. When the Republican primary had more candidates and was more competitive, it had higher turnout. Once the Democratic primary was relatively more competitive (even when it still really wasn't), it got higher turnout. This isn't complicated, it's common sense. There will be little correlation or extrapolation to the general election.

Why uncommitted got almost 11% yesterday at North Dakota?
I mean, how much of a deadbeat you must be to go to a caucus, AFTER the nomination has been decided, and vote for uncommitted?

Yeah, I don't get it either. My only guess is that a lot of Republicans and right wing independents participated (remember, ND had no GOP contest yesterday...or ever. And the caucus was open) who wanted to stick it to Hillary, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bernie either.

Interesting that when you look at the elections results now in Atlas, more Democratic votes have been cast than Republicans.

What many people failed to realize is that the sequencing of this year's primaries heavily favored Republican turnout versus 2008. Super Tuesday 2008 had NY, NJ and CA all voting - large Democratic strong holds. In this year's primary, these states voted toward the end of the cycle. So, when people compared the low turnout versus 2008, they neglected to mention that, well, lots of Southern states when earlier in the process.

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

[IceSpear]

My respect for Bernie has gone down hill very, very quickly the past weeks. He knows it's been over for a long time but refuses to drop out and keeps feeding his crazy supporters and giving them reason to believe they're being cheated out of something Clinton won fair and square. His supporters will only become more rabid and idiotic over the next week, get ready for the conspiracies to get even crazier.

This pretty much. He's supposed to meet with Obama on Thursday. If he stays in after that, he is officially a piece of s(inks)

I'll be watching very closely over the next week to see whether or not I lose all respect for him. I don't really mind a token effort to his supporters in DC, but if he's acting like a sore loser after that, I guess he really was as bad as some of the people here thought.

[Holmes]

If you told me yesterday that Solano county would be closer than Napa county, I would not have believed you. Maybe his visit to Vallejo did something for his support there. Maybe Sanders performed "relatively" well with African-Americans, or maybe Clinton just performed very well with Asians (possible with Napa and Santa Clara >60% Clinton). Still, I expected Solano to be one of her best counties.

I wasn't surprised to see Santa Cruz go to Sanders. I knew she would do well in Watsonville (and probably the richer areas like Scotts Valley, Rio del Mar, Aptos...) but when I travelled to Santa Cruz city last weekend, Bernie signs everywhere. Typical, though. Same with Berkeley when I was there last a couple of weeks ago. I'm pleased by Clinton's sweep of the Bay Area, though Sonoma county may flip with the late mail-in vote, but probably not.

[Wiz in Wis]

Just woke up and watched Bernie's speech... ugh.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

[IceSpear]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

It's nowhere near over yet.

[Sbane]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

[Sbane]

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

Silent Majority

[NOVA Green]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

[Gass3268]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

I'm guessing Glenn, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara will flip to Sanders if that's the case.

[Sbane]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

Looking at how Hillary did with well off people, I think the late mail in ballot will be more 50-50 than 55-45 Bernie. It might even be a slight Hillary win. The election day votes must all be counted by this point. That is likely more favorable to Bernie than mail in ballots, even if it is the last minute ones. The Bay Area results really are something.

[Holmes]

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

They should've found me to talk to when I went to her rallies. I would've talked about her on camera, no problem.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

They should've found me to talk to when I went to her rallies. I would've talked about her on camera, no problem.

Yeah but you were a man.

[IceSpear]

And it's amazing that Clinton broke 16 million votes in a much less competitive primary than the 18 million she got versus Obama in 2008. Can people now recognize that she has enthusiastic supporters and a pretty large following?

I just read a piece about Clinton supporters in California where the reporter said that she had a hard time getting many of them to talk on camera. When she asked why they said to her that they were afraid of being victims of harassment and online bullying by Bernie Bros (and Trumpsters to a lesser degree).

They should've found me to talk to when I went to her rallies. I would've talked about her on camera, no problem.

I guess most Hillary supporters are more like Beet and less like us.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Delegate allocation will be:

CA: Clinton 269, Sanders 206
MT: Sanders 11, Clinton 10
NJ: Clinton 79, Sanders 47
NM: Clinton 18, Sanders 16
ND: Sanders 13, Clinton 5
SD: Clinton 10, Sanders 10

Final pledged count (except DC, of course): 2203 Clinton, 1827 Sanders

[IceSpear]

So California is actually her third largest delegate haul, after Texas and Florida.

[yourelection]

Now that the final vote tally has come in, I have finished my thoughts about and posted them to the blog.

Big night for Clinton. Bernie came up short of expectations and now it is off to a general election between Clinton and Trump.

http://www.yourelection.net/2016/06/super-tueday-primary-finale/

[NOVA Green]

Santa Clara County now has prelim precinct results online.

So it looks like one of the major reasons for Hillary's dramatic performance in Santa Clara County, based upon the same-day and early votes posted earlier, was a HUGE swing in wealthier areas between '08 and '16.

She won Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Palo Alto, and Saratoga by over 2:1 margins, with the exception of the latter all cities carried by Obama in '08 (and Palo Alto by 20 points, including the four precincts located at Stanford 555-903 or 38-62%!) as well as well as a 60-40 win in Mtn View (Also an Obama '08 City) and also an improvement in Cupertino for a 60-40 win.

Interestingly, San Jose actually marginaly swung away from Hillary '08 numbers, as well as Santa Clara, and Bernie's best four cities (Campbell 45%, Santa Clara 43%, Sunnyvale 42%, San Jose 40%) were actually some of Obama's worst.

It will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next week, with an estimated 60k ballots outstanding...

[NOVA Green]

Also, for any map geeks out there, here's a link to a cool precinct map from Santa Clara county.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/60535/171298/Web01/en/summary.html

[RI]

Also, for any map geeks out there, here's a link to a cool precinct map from Santa Clara county.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/60535/171298/Web01/en/summary.html

Looks like Kasich won several precincts near Stanford.

EDIT: Ventura County has a map here. Looks like Jim Gilmore and "write-ins" both won precincts.

EDIT2: Shasta County here.

[Holmes]

I know the feeling, but I've been very open about my support for Hillary among my Sanders-backing (latino!) husband, sister-in-law and father-in-law. The California results have given me sweet vindication.

[Hnv1]

anyone got a "town" map? I wonder how places like Berkeley and different silicon valley towns voted

[Eraserhead]

Now that the final vote tally has come in, I have finished my thoughts about and posted them to the blog.

Big night for Clinton. Bernie came up short of expectations and now it is off to a general election between Clinton and Trump.

http://www.yourelection.net/2016/06/super-tueday-primary-finale/

I'm pretty sure there are still a lot of votes to count.

[Landslide Lyndon]