Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dave Weigel on twitter.

#CAprimary: They counted 6,627 new votes so far today. 3,861 new Clinton votes, 2,766 for Sanders.

[NOVA Green]

Updated California Democratic Primary vote Count:

Since 6/8 early AM when 100% of early Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and same day votes were counted, by my numbers here are the updates:

Out of an additional 130k votes 56.2k Bernie to 74.2k Hillary for a slight increase in Hillary's margins that are overwhelmingly later Vote-by-Mail ballots. (Sbane so far you're looking right on later VbMs)

The overwhelming majority of counties, including most of the key voter population centers have had no updates since election night and there are a huge number of Provisional votes outstanding from same-day votes, as well as extremely large numbers of later VbM ballots still to be counted.

Key highlights of Dem results:

Contra Costa- 28k new votes (39-61 Hillary)
Orange- 15.3k new votes (42-58 Hillary)
San Bernardino- 20.4k new votes (46-54 Hillary)
San Diego- 14.1k new votes (39-61 Hillary)
San Francisco- 19.9k new votes (47-53 Hillary)
Santa Clara- 36k new votes (43-57 Hillary)
Solano- 1k new votes (51-49 Bernie)

Glenn County flips to Sanders (Holmes check off another county on your election prediction map)

A few smaller NorCal counties moving into tossup range (Colusa, Amador) or Bernie increases margins  (Lassen & Sierra)

[Holmes]

Where do you see those numbers, NOVA? The California SOS site only show an increase of about 50k votes from election night.

[NOVA Green]

Where do you see those numbers, NOVA? The California SOS site only show an increase of about 50k votes from election night.

Been grinding it out from individual county websites... created a spreadsheet Wednesday AM after Monterey and LA got to 100% and been tracking since...

Cal SoS has been extremely slow in updating, but at least a few counties in the Bay Area have been updating regularly, along with some minor updates in urban SoCal and a handful of rural counties.

Am working remotely and part-time the past couple days. so a bit too much free time on my hands I guess.

[Sbane]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

[NOVA Green]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

I wish!!! About to post some data from SF neighborhoods in another thread...

[DINGO Joe]

Here's the official estimate of ballots still to be counted (all parties)

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

The SoS is dependent on individual counties to provide updates to both vote totals and remaining ballots to be processed.  As noted above, individual counties don't regard providing immediate updates to the SoS as particularly vital.

Just taking an educated guess, I'd expect about 1.5 million +/- 200,000 to be counted after election night in the Dem primary.

[RI]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

Just zoom in here.

[Sbane]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

Just zoom in here.

Nice, thanks.

[Holmes]

What are the neighbourhoods outside of UCLA like? The precincts in UCLA are overwhelmingly Sanders, but right outside, they're overwhelmingly Clinton.

[Sbane]

Some of those precincts on the southeast side of UCLA contain high end condos lined along Wilshire boulevard. Overall that area is very well off. And if you look to the west, along I-10 in Santa Monica Bernie actually won some precincts. Once you go north toward the wealthier areas, especially north of Montana, you start seeing very lopsided Clinton wins.

[NOVA Green]

So also looks like Sanders won San Pedro and South Long Beach, as well as Long Beach in general...

Explanations???

[RI]

Sanders won essentially all of Palms, LA, which is fairly diverse (only 38% white) but very young, fairly educated, and fairly dense.

[Sbane]

So also looks like Sanders won San Pedro and South Long Beach, as well as Long Beach in general...

Explanations???

Long Beach makes sense. It's got a hipster vibe to it without being too expensive. More like Hollywood than Santa Monica. San Pedro is full of working class dockworkers. Primarily a Latino neighborhood but also with whites and blacks. They live right at the foot of the Palos Verdes peninsula where they get to look upon the multi million dollar homes of the rich. I guess Bernie's message of income inequality played well there.

Looks like Bernie did decently well in Wilmington as well which is also close to Palos Verdes, full of dockworkers, and even more Latino and working class than San Pedro.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So also looks like Sanders won San Pedro and South Long Beach, as well as Long Beach in general...

Explanations???

Long Beach makes sense. It's got a hipster vibe to it without being too expensive. More like Hollywood than Santa Monica. San Pedro is full of working class dockworkers. Primarily a Latino neighborhood but also with whites and blacks. They live right at the foot of the Palos Verdes peninsula where they get to look upon the multi million dollar homes of the rich. I guess Bernie's message of income inequality played well there.

That's very poetic.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that late votes are favorable to Hillary. I thought the opposite was supposed to happen.

@daveweigel

Latest count of new ballots in CA: 42,445 for Clinton, 30,664 for Sanders.

[Holmes]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

I remember the talk about how late mail votes favored Sanders in Washington and Oregon and were expected to do the same in California.

[Holmes]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

I remember the talk about how late mail votes favored Sanders in Washington and Oregon and were expected to do the same in California.

Only because Washington and Oregon don't have in-person election day voting. The type of people who send their ballots late in WA and OR (and we're talking election day late) are the types in CA who would just vote in-person.

[Ebsy]

So it looks like we won't be getting an extremely late Sanders surge in California.

[NOVA Green]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

So any idea generally how election offices in most counties in California count these... do they generally wait to do provisionals last until they validate that people that requested VbMs didn't have a providional?

[Ebsy]

VBM ballots received before the election > Election day vote > VBM ballots received latter > provisionals.

[Holmes]

I do believe they count provisionals only after all main-in votes have been counted, right? So I'd expect Clinton's margin to expand after all main-in votes are counted, then it should tighten a bit again after counting whichever provisionals they ultimately end up counting. But I believe this whole process will take quite a few weeks.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here is the latest tally according to California's SoS.

[Ebsy]

I do believe they count provisionals only after all main-in votes have been counted, right? So I'd expect Clinton's margin to expand after all main-in votes are counted, then it should tighten a bit again after counting whichever provisionals they ultimately end up counting. But I believe this whole process will take quite a few weeks.

There's not really any rush.